EU wasted time by not giving the UK a unicorn. But this new deadline will force them to cough it up! Also, I am not a crank.

There’s going to be a fundamental shift once the UK is out and no longer a member state. Whether that will affect stance in the negotiations is to be seen, but if anything the EU will have less reasons to be accommodating, since it will have no mandate to protect the UK at that point.

The EU refused to do any pre-negotiation. So any prep work would have been untainted with the reality of the EU negotiating position, and therefore of very little value. There was no chance of the internal contradictions in the government coalition being laid bare without the negotiations actually happening.

As to the shorter deadline, the EU given it’s current protectionist turn probably wants a full (no tariffs/quotas) goods-only deal with level playing field and a fish agreement. Whether the deadline is one or two years, they will run the clock down in an attempt to get that. They believe they have leverage, so ultimately the deal will look something like that.

I think Boris is a good enough negotiator to get some meaningful and eye catching “concession”, but ultimately it won’t be anything truly substantial.

A two year negotiation period would probably allow for a slightly more generous trade deal, but it would still largely be a trade deal tailored to EU interests.

One wonders why the EU were worried about negotiating with a party that literally had no idea what they realistically wanted. It’s not as if the UK negotiators accepted multiple treaties, only to reject them …

Citation needed. Especially given that multiple EU heads of state have signaled willingness to get a trade deal in place quickly - just without being so stupid as placing a deadline on when.

Trade agreements take time to set up, because they are monstrously complicated affairs, with a thousand interests and exceptions to consider. The Canada trade deal did not take 7 years because either side was running the clock down - it took that amount of time because comprehensive trade agreements take a lot of time.

Every single actual expert who has worked on trade deals that has commented on this, has pointed this out. The only ones who seem to think otherwise, are the amateurs in Whitehall.

They have leverage (it’s not something they think - it’s simple economics, given the trade balance). There are also 20+ individual nations involved here, each with unique interests in the deal - so it will either be years of negotiating while details are hammered out, or it will be a short and sharp negotiation where the UK rolls over and accepts most of what the EU offers.

Nothing sums up the problem more than the fact people in this forum have a better grasp of the realities of Brexit than the entire British government, who can only prove that shit floats to the top.

I found the New Labour references here hilarious:

More seriously, it makes very clear the extent that Johnson (and the tory party generally - Cameron did the same) saw Tony Blair as a political genius who should be emulated, while the Labour party ran as far from his legacy as possible.

What she said: My government will work to promote and expand the United Kingdom’s influence in the world.

What he meant: Yadda yadda. Any foreigners I failed to offend as foreign secretary I can now annoy from No 10.

LOL

The Iraqis ran from Blair’s political genius too.

If you want to see how awful Corbyns people and the UK hard left are, read this summary of the judgement against Labour kingmaker Len McCluskey’s Unite union and hard left gutter rag and Seumas Milnes goto media outlet Skwawkbox.

and why is McCluskey financing Skwawkbox when Labour MP’s say this about it? How do Union members feel about that? Its meant to be a union to protect them, not a slush fund for the hard left to defend the worst people in politics.

“its all libel” indeed.

Where does the idea that Boris is a canny negotiator come from, btw? So far, the only thing he’s done is sweep in, change a few commas, and take credit for the hard work done by his predecessor (I’m exaggerating a little, sure - but his deal is almost entirely the same as the deal offered to May, which she turned down flat and which he bombastically proclaimed that no British government could accept).

I don’t see where he’ll get such “easy” wins once the trade negotiations start. For one, they’ll be starting from scratch, and no matter what the results are, the result is always going to be worse than the current “deal”, making spinning it very difficult. Secondly, the UK department for trade negotiations is - last I heard - massively inexperienced. Inevitably so - like all member countries, the UK hasn’t negotiated a big international trade deal in decades, since all that has been managed by Brussels. And the guys in Brussels… they do have experience. Maybe they can help Boris find some easy wins (which is in their interest too), but I’m not really seeing any obvious ones.

Boris Johnson’s negotiation skills

Boris Johnson has been criticised for making a misleading statement about a British-Iranian woman serving a five-year jail term in Iran, in comments that appear to have complicated her legal case.

The UK foreign secretary condemned Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe’s conviction for spying in Iran last week as a mockery of justice, but added that she was “simply teaching people journalism” – a statement her family and her employer both said was untrue.

On Saturday, three days after Johnson’s statement to a parliamentary committee, Zaghari-Ratcliffe was summoned before an unscheduled court hearing, where the foreign secretary’s comments were cited as proof that she was engaged in “propaganda against the regime”.

Zaghari-Ratcliffe’s employer, Thomson Reuters Foundation, released a statement making clear that she was not working in Iran, but was on holiday in the country to show her daughter, Gabriella, to her grandparents.

In response to the criticism, the UK Foreign Office said: “Last week’s remarks by the foreign secretary provide no justifiable basis on which to bring any additional charges against Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe” and that he was planning to call his Iranian counterpart to “ensure his remarks are not misrepresented” – but Johnson failed to withdraw his earlier comments.

His comments were a result of him not bothering to read briefs and trying to blag his way through it.

All that practice from Oxford tutorials paying off.

Even if his membership revoked, the real question is why does a white nationalist extremist terror group leader feel the Tories are the party for him?

Wishful thinking. Or, seeing the results he’s achieved.

Boris indicates that the UK will pursue a hard Brexit.

The Prime Minister made clear that he would pursue a hard Brexit by saying there would be “no alignment” between the two sides, defying the EU’s claim that it was a “must” for any future relationship.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/12/20/boris-johnson-insists-will-no-alignment-eu-brexit/

Summary

Boris Johnson insisted that Britain would not follow any EU rules after Brexit as he set up a showdown with Brussels over a trade deal.

The Prime Minister made clear that he would pursue a hard Brexit by saying there would be “no alignment” between the two sides, defying the EU’s claim that it was a “must” for any future relationship.

On a historic day for Britain’s relationship with the rest of Europe, the Brexit “divorce” Bill sailed through the Commons with a majority of 124 on Friday, and will become law on Jan 9, enabling a Jan 31 exit and for trade negotiations to begin in earnest.

It brought an end to three and a half years of indecision in Parliament, and “means we are one step closer to getting Brexit done”, Mr Johnson said.

On another divisive day for Labour, six of the party’s MPs representing Leave-voting constituencies rebelled by voting in favour of the Bill, with another 32 abstaining.

It meant that the majority in favour of the EU Withdrawal Agreement Bill was far larger than the overall majority of 80 won by Mr Johnson at the general election last week.

Mr Johnson told MPs to “move on” from the Brexit arguments and “discard the old labels of Leave and Remain”. He said the time had come to “act together as one reinvigorated nation … determined at last to take advantage of the opportunities that now lie before us”.

His stance on trade negotiations with the EU immediately escalated the row over his Brexit plans both in the Commons and in Brussels.

He said the vote “paves the path for a new agreement on our future relationship with our European neighbours based on an ambitious free-trade agreement, with no alignment … on EU rules, but instead control of our own laws and close and friendly relations”.

EU leaders reacted by saying that Britain could not have tariff-free, frictionless trade unless it signed up to EU regulations and standards.

Leo Varadkar, the Irish Taoiseach, said a trade deal had been made more difficult to achieve with Mr Johnson “fixed on a harder Brexit”. He said: “We don’t want to trade with a Britain that undercuts us, that has lower financial standards, lower product standards, lower health and safety standards…the harder approach being taken by Prime Minister Johnson is a risk to us.”

Charles Michel, president of the European Council, said “a level playing field remains a must for any future relationship”, indicating Brussels will push hard for close alignment in trade talks.

One senior EU source said that instead of the “Canada-plus” style trade deal Mr Johnson wanted, he would end up with no more than a “WTO-plus” deal, meaning that Britain would trade with the EU on little better than World Trade Organisation terms, which involve tariffs. Trade talks can only officially begin once Britain leaves the EU.

Brussels had hoped that Mr Johnson’s majority would enable him to ignore the most avid Brexiteers in his party and agree to a much softer Brexit, in which Britain would agree to remain aligned with the EU in return for tariff-free, frictionless trade.

One EU diplomat from an influential member state said: “The more Britain will diverge from common standards and regulations, the more time we will need to negotiate a comprehensive trade deal. Due to the 11-month time limit imposed by London, the risk of a cliff edge by the end of 2020 has risen considerably.”

A senior government source responded by saying: “EU officials claimed that they wouldn’t reopen the Withdrawal Agreement, but they did as it was plainly in our shared interest. “There is clearly political will on both sides that will ensure we can conclude an ambitious free trade agreement by the end of next year.”

Last week, Emmanuel Macron, the French president, warned that a close trading relationship would only be possible if Britain stuck close to Brussels’s rules and standards.

British officials have told their EU counterparts that the UK wants a “best in class” trade deal, but have signalled that they would accept tariffs in some sectors to secure the freedom to diverge from EU rules and regulations.

Shoot the hostage!

Oh man, I’m sure the EU is going to give the UK a good deal now that BoJo has indicated he’s willing to pursue hard Brexit, unlike the last 300 times the British government indicated they would pursue hard Brexit.

Yeah, I laughed out loud at the idea that this sets up a ‘showdown’ between London and Brussels. Something something knife to a gunfight something.

Johnson didn’t say anything about a hard Brexit. Your article buries the lede:

It’s hard to interpret ‘no alignment’ as a soft Brexit, isn’t it?

This is also helpful.