8850

Not to hear it from Draxen.

The entire island could sink beneath the waves due to Brexit and he’d still be here defending it and denying the island was even sinking.

But watch out now boys, he’s thrown down the gauntlet and says data will prove him right!

So expect some well curated data points a year from now demonstrating the magical resurgence of our island kingdom, no doubt with a little help from the return of King Arthur!

8851

Brexit can never fail, it can only be…oh fuck me never mind.

8852

image

8853

They’re comparing January to January.

And I am quite sure if the data had said our trade had gone up by 68% with the rest of the world, you’d be quite happily citing that as evidence.

And yes, the Guardian is left leaning, but it is well written, well informed and free.

The Telegraph may be the first 2, but as it is paywalled I shall never know for sure.

Still, in my experience, the actual truth of the matter usually falls somewhere in the middle.

So if you read the Telegraph, then read the same news in the Guardian, then the same again with the BBC, you usually walk away with a sense of what actually happened (e.g. Iranian minister assassinated by the USA) and can safely disregard most of the accompanying words (It’s abuse! He had it coming and let’s get the next guy! etc)

Actually, I think the best place for online news is probably…











Wikipedia.

8854

There are no official figures released yet as far as I know and even if there were it’s far too early to make any kind of judgement.

The article suggesting a 68% drop was utter bollocks. That figure was pulled out of thin air from a random letter from a lobby group. They provide no other data or figures or… anything.

Here’s where the 68% figure came from:
https://www.rha.uk.net/getmedia/a17d600a-13f1-4034-b15e-ba021df01bd0/The-Rt-Hon-Michael-Gove-MP-1st-February-2021.pdf.aspx

8855

I was only saying that this morning. That’s what really needs to be focused on and I’d like to think we could unite to some degree under that alone. It’s useful for the Tories to be able to hide behind Brexit and Covid-19 instead of it being entirely down to their staggering incompetence/negligence.

8856

If only some one had told us this back in 2016…

oh wait…

8857

A lot of Brexiteers are like Trumpists and they’ve got to the point where it’s a shibboleth. As long as remainers are ‘crying’ they can argue there’s no problem and it’s fine.

They are an industry body who are gathering information from their members. They are an industry body that backed leave in the referendum. ([https://www.rha.uk.net/news/press-releases/2016-06-june/britain’s-road-hauliers-back-‘leave’)]Press Release)

They’ve may have back pedalled after the ‘clusterfuck in execution’ but that’s been their experience.

See fox.ferro shibboleth.

The warnings that were going around in 2016 were all ‘project fear’ now they are seen as reality it’s now moved to be Brexiteers sticking their fingers in their ears going 'lalala I’m not listening.

8858

So Brexit is not…looking…good…?

8859

I don’t think this Brexit guy is a good president. :)

8860

Maybe the solution is better roads, more parking lots and and an extra channel tunnel. We could call it Infrastructure Week.

8861

A lot of Brexiteers Remainers are like Trumpists and they’ve got to the point where it’s a shibboleth. They will happily pull “facts” out of thin air and parade it as truth as long as it fits their narrative.

Brexit might well be the UK ending apocalypse that you so keenly desire but we don’t know yet because we have no meaningful data.

Here’s the government response to the article:

8862

It seems like there’s a lot of data of things being way worse already.

8863

But it’s just remainer project fear, dontcha know.

8864

Did you read that response?

The RHA survey makes a claim about export transit volumes over the last month, and the government responds with a figure about export transit volumes over the last week.

The RHA claims that 65-75% of the vehicles are returning to France empty, while the government say no, according to the French it is only 50%. They go on to say that 50% is perfectly normal, by citing a figure from ‘before January’ of, well, 30%, not 50%.

The government response to the rest is arglebargle.

Maybe the RHA are wrong, but that government response is a steaming pile of excrement.

8865

The 68% figure may well be accurate, but conflates 4 different factors:

  1. COVID
  2. Genuine “teething troubles”
  3. Unwinding of pre-brexit stockpiling (because it was cheaper to import things pre brexit).
  4. Long term trade that’s gone away and isn’t coming back.

I don’t think we know how much of it is (4) now. It’s certainly a lot, but 68% doesn’t seem realistic.

8866

Does it really matter if its gone from 30% to 50% or 68%? Even if you were to convince me that it was ‘just’ a jump to 40% it’s still a massive clusterfuck of failure. Some of you are IT guys and thus should know the massive yawning chasm that can exist just between 99% and 99.999%. Of course, it depends on what you’re measuring, and while I’m not an expert on intercontinental logistics, I’m pretty sure a 20-38% shift in a single month is a lot.

Fucking percentages.

Regardless of what the actual figure is, it would’ve and should’ve been a much less catastrophic drop off if the situation was handled in a manner with even a modicum of competence. Maybe instead of going from 30% to 50-68% in a single month we could’ve maybe gone to that over the course of a year. Maybe if everyone actually knew what was going to happen there’d have been no need for ‘stockpiling’ and fewer ‘teething troubles’, if indeed they were part the cause. That these examples are second or third order effects of such utter incompetence does not change the root cause.

8867

This is going to be a surprise for exactly one part of the population, the part that believes in unicorns.

And maybe I’m being unfair, but if you’re of voting age and still believe in unicorns, I mean, you’re probably not too hard to lead by the nose, so, why should the government care?

In any case, the exact percentage is probably too early to call, and for the people who voted for non economic reasons no percentage drop will matter because it’s not about the economy and the whole thing has gone religious, so, unless it’s very clear that the economy in the UK has gone worse than it did in the EU, it’s not going to matter.

8868

Firstly let me respond to this comment ‘UK ending apocalypse that you so keenly desire’

That’s untrue, never been true and nothing I’ve written/tweeted or commented has been any indicative of that so go stick your balls in a blender and switch it on you absolute self satisfied twat. The narrative that Brexiteers are wrapping themselves in the flag and some how more patriotic is both offensive and untrue.
I really can’t think where I’ve seen that kind of false narrative being used by a populist figure recently but maybe any Americans reading this thread can suggest somebody who fits the bill.

Oh and I actually patriotic enough to actually turn up and vote.

There are some remainers who don’t want Brexit to be a success. The vast majority believe that it won’t be a success and what we’re losing in terms of market access, cultural and opportunity will not be matched by a race to the bottom for workers rights and a deal with a country on the other side of the globe.

You’ve neglected to include what my response was to which was about the execution of Brexit. You believe that the execution of Brexit has been good?

Industries with no idea what is required of them being told by politicians to ‘get ready’. Industries that were told they going to do well out Brexit being sold down the river so that clown could come back with a deal.

The vast majority of the economy ignored by not even approaching services.

Businesses being told by HMG to move to Europe to continue access to get around the problem that HMG had just created.

Repeatedly May and Johnson said that no Conservative government could accept a Border down the Irish see. That was of course wrong all Johnson had to be willing to do was betray the union and the unionists. Johnson seems to have forgotten he’s leading the Conservative and Unionist party rather conveniently.

The longer term outcome of Brexit is yet to be seen but the execution has been anything but competent.

8869

I believe he was directing that commentary at all of us doubters/remainers.

I wonder though if it could have been done in a halfway competent manner? Mostly because if we had the sort of government able and willing to do that, it would probably also be the sort of government that realised it simply wasn’t worth the bother.

Indeed. I wonder we don’t talk more about this.