8870

On your first point. It doesnt’ read like that. It’s not in the first response where he attempts to turn my point.

We could have had a conversation around what Brexit was actually going to be rather than the gnomic ‘Brexit means Brexit’ bollocks spouted by May and controlled by her ventrolquist Nick Timothy. We could have planned about the massive change that this was going to mean and planned for it before invoking article 50. We could have not claimed that we wouldn’t need the lorry parks, customs faciltiies and people. We could have built them and recruited the staff. We could have sent a competent Secretary of State unlike David Davies, a man in search of a work ethic and two brain cells to rub together. We could have replaced him with somebody who did understand that the Dover Calais route was quite important.

I could go on…

8871

Yes but all of that requires common sense.

and if you had that you probably wouldn’t walk away from the best deal in the EU, and would instead use your position as one of the veto holders to push for reform of the EU.

That would also require a backbone though, and a sense of moral responsibility.

8872

All of these are great points. However, it would have meant accepting that Brexit was a bad idea and preparing accordingly. Instead, we got ongoing, jingoistic and constant campaigning, rather than actual action. That’s been a hallmark of the Johnson government - a complete failure to lead vs constantly shoring up and appealing to his base.

8873

It doesn’t even mean accepting that Brexit is a bad idea, it means accepting Brexit has downsides.
Which is fine. Cancer treatment has downsides, but you still do it.

8874

The UK Governement should at least have agreed a one year adjustment period minimum in order to prevent these sad cases:

But happy British fishes…

8875

I’d argue that none of that is about accepting that Brexit is a bad idea.

Let’s say ask the love of your life to marry you. As somebody that has been married for 20+ years I’d argue that is a good thing.

You don’t then immediately contact your vicar and say we’re getting married then accept it when they say I’ve got a free slot next Saturday and irreversibly commit yourself to it only to discover your partner has a phobia of a religious ceremony.

You don’t then ignore the need to book a band, food and a venue until two days before. You look like a moron if you spend the intervening period saying that you don’t need to do as the a Great Pumpkin in the sky will sort it out and swear that your cousin’s wedding was catered that way.

That’s what the UK did.

8876

Keep in mind, minimization and denial of the risks and negative economic impacts of Brexit was an unavoidable part of why Brexit passed. Some Brexit voters would have chosen the principal of sovereignty even if the costs of Brexit had been honestly admitted but many would not have voted for Brexit if the campaign had been honest and realistic. Given the closeness of the vote, the deception was decisive. And because of that, the Brexit camp has not been able to be honest, even now, lest they admit the decisive margin of their “victory” was founded on lies.

8877

Yes, maybe so. But I think the interpretation in public would have meant admitting the difficulties it would throw up, which have rarely been part of the narrative from the Leave side.

I can see how it could have been positioned as per your comments but I still think it would have been out of step with the presentation of Brexit.

Or, what Sharpe said much more eloquently and much better than me.

8879

Honestly, I think the world went a little crazy in that time period (perhaps still ongoing) and desperate voters were persuaded by smooth talking politicians to go with some pretty extreme ideas. I never thought I’d say this, but I think the US flirtation with extremism in the form of the Trump administration is going to have leave less damaging than the UK is going to suffer at the hands of Brexit.

8880

I’ve thought that since 2016.

If you think Trump was a nightmare you can take comfort that he’s gone.

Brexit has given a lasting & permanent change to the UK. There is no possible way to return to the position prior to it.

8881

I think you’re right. From a strict outsider’s perspective, on the global stage I feel like most world leaders were well aware of the shortcomings of Trump as a President and so, while embarrassing, a quick apology tour to smooth the waters and then Biden showing he’s a firm hand on the tiller should go a long way towards calming everyone down and getting things back to normal. Internally, I don’t know though and am really not well-placed to comment.

However, the economic effects of Brexit are still unknown (but don’t look good) and the contentious nature of discussions and negotiations with the EU, as well as the litany of gaffes around deals, rolling back deals, considering breaking international law, etc. are really damaging both politically and economically to the UK and I just don’t see an end to that. And these issues are both internal and external.

8882

One of the things that’s going to become more and more clear is that Brexit is not an event, it’s a process that will last forever. The UK is going to be continually negotiating with the EU over everything, eternally.

8883

Yep, again it was discussed during the referendum campaign and many times since by remain commentators.

The leave side would continue to insist that it would just get it done and get it over and it seems like, at least for some people, that was a reason for voting for it. Over time that percentage has been grown and I’m sure that there were quite a few voted at the last election just to get it over with,

Little did they realise that it just means we’re going to spend years negotiating trade deals and there’s even the review built in the FTA with EU.

8884

Well, if they had listened to just about anyone with expertise/knowledge about international politics and the EU, they would have known this. E.g., Rogers (former EU ambassador - some of whose talks have been linked here), pointed this outa fair few times - but ideology trumps competence in Brexitland.

His 2018 speech on Brexit still very much holds up:

…we shall be, like Switzerland, in a state of permanent negotiations with the EU about something highly intractable, on which they may have more metaphorical tanks than us. Get used to it!

Third lesson: Brexit is a process not an event. And the EU, while strategically myopic, is formidably good at process against negotiating opponents. We have to be equally so, or we will get hammered. Repeatedly.

Fourth lesson: it is not possible or democratic to argue that only one Brexit destination is true, legitimate and represents the revealed “Will of the People” and that all other potential destinations outside the EU are “Brexit in Name Only”.

8885

One month later the UK is already refusing to go through with what was agreed:

8886

Thanks for reminding me of that speech.

I remember reading it at the time and being both highly impressed and depressed. It’s a great speech and it was a real shame that he was forced to resign.

8887

Is it possible they will ever comply? Just keep daring the EU to be the one to abrogate the Good Friday agreement?

8888

Well, there is a provision for an independent arbitration tribunal within the agreement.

If HMG isn’t following the rules within the agreement they are going to be on a sticky wicket. With a bunch of shysters that don’t appear to have read, never mind understood the rules but want to ‘make shit up’ to what they think should be the rules then I think they are in trouble.

After shooting themselves in the foot over the vaccines and being an institute of rules I’d expect the EU to follow that path.

Not fast, they need to select them (by lot if necessary) and then have 130 days to rule and a further 30 days to comply.

They would however give a kicking to the side not complying with the agreement. The EU gets to point to the independent body fo the kicking and they’d be huge pressure now from the US bas well.

Of course the Daily Mail may not report it like that and Gove would be on the talk shows swearing blind it was all ‘johnny foreigner’.

At the end of the day, not a good look for a country that needs to sign lots of FTAs. Ultimately it will be the poor bloody workers and small businesses that will lose out.

8889

Another consequence of the easiest oven-ready deal in history.
Amsterdam volume quadrupled.

8890

My partner just told me something about EU citizens here in the UK who leave now won’t have automatic residency?

In her words “It’s like they decided to do the thing, and then afterwards discuss what the thing actually is…”

Which got a sad smile from me.

Anyway, if the city hurts then that might galvanize the politicians into getting things organized, although I know more than a few people who’ll say they’re just rich bankers so fuck them.