1897

The EU claims it wants a smooth transition and a continued relationship consistent with the level of commitment the UK is willing to make - and their negotiating position has been broadly consistent with that. However their demands regarding NI seem extraordinary to me, and they have made any form of agreement completely conditional on getting what they want on the NI issue (which is effectively a poison pill).

I’m open to arguments as to whether those demands are really so extraordinary, or whether they are truly required by the situation.

Obviously May hasn’t helped the situation - she clearly hoped a “softish” Brexit was possible, but it’s proven not to be. It’s Norway, give up significant NI sov, or no deal. If it was Norway, Canada or no deal I would be right there arguing that May’s plan is nonsense and the EU is as entitled to defend its red lines as the UK is.

1898

You don’t mean their demands; you mean their proposed solutions. It’s the UK that wants to leave the SM/CU yet guarantee no hard border on the island of Ireland. I cannot think of any solution to this that does not compromise either the integrity of the CU/SM or the integrity of the UK (i.e. a border has to be somewhere); can you? Can anyone?

I agree their proposed solution is extraordinary. So was the British one (Chequers).

So yes, the EU solution does not work. Neither does the British one. That means either the UK softens a line (CU/SM membership, or UK integrity) or the EU softens a line (integrity of the CU/SM), or no deal is possible.

1899

One factual correction - the EU also wants to guarantee no hard border on the island of Ireland - indeed the EU were the first to come up with the interpretation of hard border as “any border”, at a point the UK were still talking about “no hard border” in terms of technical facilitation of the minimal level of border checks required by the CU.

1900

Indeed! It’s a point of complete agreement (in the official negotiating positions, anyway).

I actually expected the EU to roll over on Ireland. They did not, and that surprised me.

1901

Well May hasn’t been pushing for it because she wants her “frictionless” Chequers-like solution that has effectively been vetoed, and changing direction is not one of her few strengths.

The more I think about this the more I blame May - she’s not saying there has to be a border on the island of Ireland, even though it’s the natural thing that has to give given everyone’s red lines.

The EU “solution” - and in particular holding the entire negotiation hostage over it - is still imperialist bullying though.

1902

I’m not sure. Aside from Boris, nobody in government seemed to have really pushed this line of reasoning.

Here I quote Morgan Freeman in one of the Batman movies, to those advocating we leave and strike our own way in the world, away from this imperialist bully:

Let me get this straight, you think that your client, one of the wealthiest and most powerful men in the world, is secretly a vigilante, who spends his nights beating criminals to a pulp with his bare hands, and your plan is to blackmail this person?

1903

We are still in the phase of unanimity. All countries need to agree, and good luck finding something that would be worth accepting a land border for the Irish.

And if the EU ignores Irish wants, we’ll, I can’t think of a better way of showing the EU to be worthless.

And it’s not like this was a big surprise, this was known in 2016.

1904

I think at the end there will be internal UK customs checks. It’s simply the most logical solution, the “pinkest” red line that will give up first under time pressure.
This solves the big actual problems and is not quite such a big deal, I feel it just needs proper naming to appease the DUP & Co.
I propose to name it “Reverse Canaries Arrangement”: The Canary Islands are fully, constitutionally and indisputably part of Spain (not a colony, territory etc…) But the Canaries are not in the Customs Union, basically because Spain wanted them to retain an incompatible fiscal status, so there are customs checks between mainland Spain and the islands. No big deal.

1905

The Canaries not being in the customs union means that Spain has full control over the Canaries trade policy. (I suspect it’s actually more complex than that, but there’s no element of extraterritoriality)

NI being effectively in the customs union means that the EU would have full control over NI trade policy, without NI being represented (therefore there is an element of extraterritoriality)

The two situations are not analogous.

1906

What is the pro-Brexit solution to the NI problem which does not undermine basic EU principles?

1907

Something something Harry Potter something

1908

I sometimes fear pro-Brexit is all about undermining basic EU principles

1909

Maybe. If May proposes to solve the problem by (say) annexing Ireland, and the EU refuses, is that because they’re being unreasonable and trying to punish the UK? Of course that’s a joke, I think, but I do think Brexiters ought to consider that, just as May has some lines she may not cross, so have the EU.

1910

The solution is obvious: Britain needs to invade and take over the rest of Ireland.

1911

In parts of North Ireland/Ireland, you’d be very sternly corrected: ‘re-invade’.

1912

It isn’t very hard to find people saying Ireland should quit the EU and or rejoin the UK while reading some of that press. Rhymes well with the neo-victorian steampunkish vibe of some Brexiteers. I now should photoshop some goggles onto a pic of Jacob Rees-Mogg wearing his tophat.

1913

Of course, NI voted to let the EU control its trade policy. Nor does it currently have a local government, and only part of its population has any representation in Westminster.

1914

NI voted to let the EU control its trade policy with NI as part of UK as part of the EU. Again, there would be no extraterritoriality concern in that scenario.

1915

One of my favourite writers for the FT considers Aceris’ broader point: has the EU overreached by making the backstop one of its red lines?

https://www.ft.com/content/0df6434e-d12c-11e8-a9f2-7574db66bcd5

1916

I’d take more away from that article if the author offered any suggestion as to how to resolve the border question. To me, to wonder whether either side is making too much of it sidesteps the obvious: The day after Brexit day, how the Ireland / Northern Ireland border functions is a real question, one that has to be answered before then if anyone is going to do anything to make it happen. You can kick the can down the road only by accepting a transitional period in which the UK basically operates as Norway does, but I don’t really grasp any other way to put it off. What’s the suggestion?