1977

Playing catch up but really WTF.

The EU has no need to play fair…it’s an international negotiation not the playing fields at Eton. If the Govt actually had a position or a policy or a clue then we might be in a better position.

What do we think is going to happen when we having these marvellous free trade deals with the US, India or China? Trumps going to be peeing over his hands as he shoves chlorinated chicken and antibiotic stuffed beef and forces the sell of the even more NHS service. india is going to make free movement like a family outing and China will kill off what’s left of our manufacturing industry.

Of course, we continuing to benefit from that EU’s power and be the big dog at the table but that’s not what 52% of those that voted want.

Reform of the EU, well we’ve definitely decided we don’t want to do that either.

You are a Sun sub-editor and I claim my £5. Did they bomb your chip shop as well?

1978

Do people learn anything about Empire at school? And I’m not even talking if it was good, just the conditions required for the UK to get to India, plant a flag and go “This ours now”.

1979

Obviously Britain willl be so awesome post-Brexit that Canada, Australia and New Zealand will immediately fall over themselves asking for dominion status again. They will shortly be followed by India and the US and probably within a year or two every country in the world.

1980

Why is examination of the UK’s past legitimate but examination of Germany’s past not? I mean I’m obviously down with mocking Farage and his ilk as imperialistic throwbacks, but we’re talking about the negotiation here. I don’t see how the bulldog and union-jack waistcoat brigade is relevant.

With respect to the NI issue, I actually think they’re both pretty irrelevant to the matter at hand. What does matter is the perceptions of both communities in Northern Ireland (which will inevitably be mutually exclusive and require finesse and compromise). When soi-disant peacemakers systematically ignore and dismiss the unionist perspective one is forced to conclude that they’re more interested in the world as they wish it was than the world as it actually is - not unlike Brexiteers!

1981

If the UK is renegotiating the status of NI, then it’s fair to bring up the circumstances surrounding previous Irish negotiations.

If Germany were amassing an army and demanding enlargement of its borders, then of course it would be good to remember its history. But it isn’t.

Germany’s peaceful coleadership of a voluntary trading bloc has nothing to do with WW2, and it unfairly presupposes that Germany should never take a leadership role in any project ever again. Indeed, the whole purpose of the postwar approach to Germany was to prepare it to take a peaceful leadership role in Europe.

1982

Yeah, I haven’t read the whole thread but everything I’m hearing about this Brexit process is that the promised benefits won’t happen. They should just do another referendum and I bet “Remain” would win by 6 to 4 easily.

I would draw the line at Britain leaving the Pound (I’ve always thought the Euro was folly, for MMT reasons), but otherwise Britain is better off within the EU.

1983

Actually, I think it’s likely the result would be similar to the original referendum. A recent Yougov poll puts it at:
Remain: 52% (-1)
Leave: 48% (+1)
This poll result is almost identical to closing polls on the day of the referendum.

The country appears to still be split down the middle. The Internet is a bit of an echo chamber when it comes to Brexit. possibly (pure speculation) because more “Remainers” than “Leavers” are heavier Internet users?

1984

Firstly, the EU is not a mere trading bloc.

Secondly, NI membership in the trading bloc aspect at least does not appear to be voluntary. (And if you argue that NI voted to remain then I would point our that constitutionally that is irrelevant, and if we want to move beyond the constitutional technicalities then the UK’s ratification of Lisbon was itself rather questionable).

Thirdly I am absolutely content with German coleadership of the EU. I regard all these matters as history from a long time ago that is largely irrelevant to the future conduct of the countries in question. You condemn those who cannot let go of past German misdeeds - why are you eager to embrace critiques based on past British misdeeds that have similarly been resolved?

1985

Because it’s not an examination. It’s a passing nudge nudge, wink wink, ‘ooo look they were Nazis’. It’s the exactly the same kind of crap that the tabloids play. However, I do stand corrected I remembered it as the Sun but it was the Mirror that produced a. particularly awful front page. ([Article including the 96 Front Page] but then one Piers Morgan was their editor at the time. (http://www.anorak.co.uk/251800/sports/world-cup-germany-face-england-and-her-media-war-machine-news-round-up.html)).

It plays to the xenophobic and the ignorant while still attempting to be reasonable…it’s Boris Johnson with the ‘who me’ expression. It’s the worst of Britain.

1986

I’ve made my intent clear but you seem reluctant to believe me. Why is that?

1987

Question for the more educated in the UK political system…why isn’t the May government putting whatever deal they negotiate with the EU back in front of the people? Choose that deal, or stay in the EU. Since Brexit started with a popular referendum, there’s certainly precedent. I would think that would be a win for her either way…avoid the fallout from a no deal Brexit if it fails, take credit for the negotiations if it succeeds.

1988

Because they don’t have a deal with the EU. And if they announce one, it is guaranteed to cause an immediate split in government.

1989

I’m not sure what this means. The UK voluntarily joined the single market, and NI is part of the UK.

Because they haven’t really been resolved. There is still a substantial population in NI that suspects its interests will be sacrificed by UK negotiators in pursuit of a trade deal. And until the UK works out a border arrangement that NI can live with, this is a reasonable suspicion. Because to all appearances, such an arrangement is impossible.

1990

I think, in part because referendums involving complex choices are always a terrible idea. Much like how the Kadarshians are ridiculously popular in the USA, popular decisions are rarely ever the best ones. The only reason a referendum was called for originally was because Cameron (and his advisors) never thought they would lose. It was a political gambit to try and regain some semblance of unity in the Conservative party. Even the “Leave” camp were expecting to lose hence why there was no plan in place if they won. I think Nigel Farage, one of the loudest Leave voices had even gone home to bed when they announced the result (and they had to wake him up) ;)

I think Brexit is just a symptom of a much larger problem within the UK. With the fallout of the 2008 financial crash, austerity and privatization pushing public services to the limit. An aging and underfunded transport infrastructure, an increasing wave of anti-globalization sentiment. Many feel marginalized and ignored. When your populace are disaffected this leaves them open to nationalistic viewpoints. “If we leave Europe, we’ll make our country great again!”.

However, I’m not convinced the EU is the best thing for the UK either. I still remember how disgustingly Greece were treated during their economic crisis. Nor am I convinced of all the predictions of doom if the UK does leave. Planes will still need to fly, business will still need to run, people will still need to trade etc.

What the UK really needs is some strong leadership. I think the current leadership (on both sides) is the weakest it has been in my lifetime. Unfortunately politics doesn’t seem to draw in the brightest minds. They’re probably all working for the banks as the salary is much better ;)

1991

Well, I figured they could do the Norway-style customs union deal, which it seems the EU is pushing for. And get political cover from the referendum. But if as you say the government would basically fall immediately on announcement, that’s a good reason not to go that route!

That’s probably true - certainly here in the US there’s always much effort put into describing voting choices in the simplest terms possible. Which can backfire, of course, since things are rarely simple.

There may be some truth to this, but I think it’s more likely that strong and intelligent leaders simply can’t get into power in the current environment. When people are voting for moves like Brexit and leaders like Donald Trump, what chance does someone with actual skills and plans stand? The facts are entirely against those choices, but people ignore them and vote for the terrible choice anyway.

1992

Basically no UK government would deliberately Brexit to achieve a Norway-style deal, because that deal basically keeps the UK in the EU with respect to trade, movement of people, regulations, and legal jurisdiction, while eliminating any ability for the UK to participate in governing the EU. Why leave at all on those terms? Any government that proposes it as a permanent solution is going to fall, and even offering it as a temporary transition is highly risky, as I suspect we are about to see.

1993

So your argument is that because some of the population of NI (Republicans) suspect that UKgov will sell out their interests in future, UKgov should sell out the interests of some of the rest of the population of NI (Unionists) right now.

I have been thinking about this a lot, and concluded that, if, as you say, no compromise with the EU that retains a largely open border with Ireland without a intra-UK border is possible, the only solution that respects the EU structure, the GFA, and the referendum/A50 notification is a plebiscite in NI with three options (which would occur during the transition period):

  1. Remain in UK and UK customs area.
  2. Remain in UK with backstop.
  3. Unification with Ireland.

UKgov would have to accept the result. EU27 would stop holding up the withdrawal agreement even though option 1 might cause a “hard” border.

Politically impossible of course. But it’s the only solution I can see that that admits that there is no compromise between the DUP and Sinn Fein positions, and no external power has the right to dictate to the population of NI.

1994

I don’t know what the UK should do. They are stuck in a trap of their own making.

Regardless of what the UK wants, Ireland is going to be suspicious of any Brexit plan that doesn’t involve a single market, and will veto any without a customs union.

So the backstop is basically a memo to the UK that there are really only two options: customs union (border to be determined by the UK) or hard brexit (ie no deal).

1995

I think the most likely outcome is a no-deal Brexit and an electronic “soft border”… somewhere.

1996

The ‘soft border’ idea strikes me as a fantasy, since no one seems able to articulate how it would actually work.