Brexit, aka, the UK Shoots Itself


#2109

That would be great, but honestly I don’t see how it happens. Who is the Tory leader who replaces May and hammers through the House a bill to rescind the Article 50 letter? Where do the votes come from? Absent that, the UK is out.


#2110

We will see. When you are headed off a cliff and the EU has repeatedly said they will happily accept the UK remaining then I think peoples minds will get focused quickly.

Besides in a general election Labour would likely win a majority and all bets are off.


#2111

A general election would come to late to stop Brexit. And the problem is that it isn’t up to people. It’s a question of whether there is a Tory member with the courage to light his/her career on fire, and enough votes to help pile on the wood.


#2112

Well this is UK politics, things can change, dramatically and quickly as we have an unwritten constitution.

Also, this guy I like.


#2113

I found this mildly helpful in decoding this mess.


#2114

It’s missing the “no deal” option, because the Guardian has increasingly become not only partisan (which it has always been in the fine tradition of UK print news), but dishonestly so.

In the absence of any legislation being passed we get no deal exit on schedule. The government can’t even extend the negotiation period without primary legislation. Legislation cannot be passed without the will of the government and a majority of the house.

Of course that would be no deal without even preparatory legislation which would be even more of a disaster, but that’s the current law of the land.


#2115

No deal isn’t a separate option, it’s implicit in most of the options listed.


#2116

Yeah. The Guardian is totally biased. No doubt. As you say most UK papers wear that on their sleeve.

I do think (I am remote so not there) the country does seem unified in not thinking much of this deal. Its like the worst of both worlds pleasing neither camp.

I have sympathy for May though. It has emerged that delivering the putative Brexit of the referendum is impossible. That nobodys fault, not hers or the negotiators or the Brexit campaigners or Remain campaigners. We just have more information now.


#2117

It’s a deal designed to appeal to remainers who have spent the last two years convincing themselves that they actually really want to leave.

This is, very possibly, a minority of one (Theresa May) :)

It’s actually a clever way of achieving a certain set of goals (relatively frictionless trade, no free movement, soft Irish border) at the expense of a bunch of other aspects of the deal that favour the EU tremendously.

But given the leave campaign went with the tagline “take back control” it’s pretty clearly not what Leave voters thought they were voting for - better to compromise on the economics than on the sovereignty.


#2118

Well put.


#2119

Bullshit. Almost all of that information was available before the referendum, and in many cases was brought up by Remain voices. It was either ignored, shouted down as Project Fear, or just lied about. And most of the post-referendum information consists of May’s red lines, which are of course her fault.


#2120

A great thread:


#2121

oooh…just realised I don’t know what the policy is on this board on swearing…

well never mind I’ll risk it….

Ok. I’ve refreshed myself of the guidelines.

I find it impossible to have any sympathy for the harridan. Her ‘toxic environment’ at the Home Office expelled Britons, which we invited here, and at least 11 of which then died in a country which was no longer their own.

She could run from the chamber, leap off the terrace and drown herself in the Thames as far as I am concerned.


#2122

Lots of rumours are swirling, suggesting enough letters have arrived to trigger a Tory party vote of no confidence in Theresa May as leader.

If that’s the case, MPs will have to secure a majority before it would become a leadership election.

It seems unlikely there is a majority for this. If May wins, she will be safe (for internal no confidence challenges, anyway) for a year.


#2123

I dunno, they seem to be some way short (21 confirmed letters last I saw), and several key Brexiter ministers have said they’re not resigning. She might at least tough it out till the “meaningful” vote.

Baker, who is a consistent bullshitter especially when it comes to the strength of parliamentary support for ERG ideas, still only says they are “very close” and won’t get to 48 until next week. Hard to see what changes someone’s mind between now and then.


#2124

The gossip that I’m hearing is that they’re short of the required 48 to force a no confidence vote. Which to be honest is a positive thing in my opinion. To get rid of May at this stage in the negotiations is irresponsible. Unfortunately I also don’t think she’ll have enough votes to be able to force her deal through parliament so the most likely outcome is May stays but the UK crashes out with no deal.


#2125

I think we’ll know Monday. Baker is probably overcounting, but plenty of MPs would prefer a quiet letter than a published one.

Really it’s immaterial. May would win a vote, and I think comfortably so.

The budget is on Tuesday. Votes there will be interesting, but I think there is little threat of it failing to pass. Then mid-December for the withdrawal agreement. Until then, it seems we’re back in a stable political equilibrium.


#2126

Filing the article 50 letter without any idea what you wanted out of the negotiations, or whether your cabinet and parliament would support any deal that was possible to get, was irresponsible. Wasting most of your negotiating time (and goodwill) arguing over stuff that had already been agreed to or was not negotiable, was irresponsible. Why stop now? And frankly deposing May is the only chance we have of stopping this shitshow, which is a good reason for the ERG not to do it, of course.


#2127

Perfectly reasonable. I certainly am not going to defend May from criticism. She (among many others) has done more than enough to deserve it.

That goes for @Ginger_Yellow as well. Fair play. I offer no rebuttal.


#2128

As it should be. You really cant empower and enable an ethno-nationalist movement whose are striving to push people into poverty and death. There hasn’t been a single rational, data driven argument that post-Brexit Britain will increase any metric in a positive way and quite frankly, at this point, its like giving the Flat Earthers an equal share of an argument on geography.