Brexit, aka, the UK Shoots Itself


It is not entirely clear to me that the government still commands three confidence of the House of Commons.


Indeed, and that’s the thing. Nowhere does the GFA mention a frictionless trade border, although cross border cooperation clearly does require some level of border arrangements.

People have concentrated on the “sovereignty” argument that the EU plan breaches the GFA, which I find persuasive but a bit of a reach. I think the human rights argument is much stronger.

Recall Consitutional issues, 1, v) from the GFA:

“v) affirm that whatever choice is freely exercised by a majority of the
people of Northern Ireland, the power of the sovereign government with
jurisdiction there shall be exercised with rigorous impartiality on behalf of
all the people in the diversity of their identities and traditions and shall be
founded on the principles of full respect for, and equality of, civil,
political, social and cultural rights”

The “sovereign government with jurisdiction there” in this case is currently the UK government. That cannot be changed in any way without a plebiscite - it is clear that the UK cannot transfer any part of its sovereign power to the EU unilaterally.

The right to no taxation without representation is viewed as a political right under both UK and Irish law. It dates back to the 1689 Bill of Rights, in which context tariffs were clearly regarded as part of taxation.

The EU plan requires the UK to impose a tariff regime on NI which the people of NI would be unable to change through their representatives at Westminster or at Stormont. It therefore does not fully respect the political rights of the people of Northern Ireland.


Another thing the GFA doesn’t mention is air. It’s almost like it was written in some understood context or something…


Who cares? Ireland ask for something because they can, going It’s not fair won’t change squat, same as it always is when it comes to realpolitik.


UK: So, we propose the following agreement…
UK: You’re the daddy
EU: Sign here
UK: ok


The Bill of Rights only applies to England and Wales.

and they voted for it in a referendum (and it wasn’t 52/48 it was 71/29) so it’s the will of the people and we all know how much Brexiteers loves the will of the people.


if you’re making that argument, why not just say Brexit itself doesn’t respect the people of Northern Ireland? They voted Remain by a goodly percentage, after all.


Blah blah blah, Ireland could have asked for all the potatoes in England, not like there are rules for what countries are allowed to ask in negotiations.


Racist ;-)


They need to have a second referendum. The Brexit vote was tainted beyond belief. It was a Russian propaganda win just like trump - which did not accurately reflect the true will of the people.



71/29? Did I miss something here?


Sorry. That was me being obtuse.

The referendum for the Good Friday agreement that was held in Northern Irelan, during 1998, was 71% in favour and 29% against.

I believe that this shows a stronger will of the people than the split in the Brexit referendum.

That galls me as the there seems to be a certain subset of the English that believes the GFA is not something that is precious enough to preserve but will scream ‘will of the people’ in reference to Brexit, I think the DUP are finding out just how much the Tories really value the union.


Bro that will of the people line is pure politicking.

Just after the referendum there was a petition to rerun it based on the majority not being enough of a majority.

The irony was it was started by a brexiteer beforehand who fully believed his team (Brexit) would lose and therefore was already calling for a rematch!

Will of the people my bum!


Indeed. Also lets not forget the Republic changed their constitution to remove a clause claiming NI and still overwhelmingly voted in support of the GFA , if anyone gave up something it was the Republic of Ireland. So its little wonder they are more than a wee bit sensitive over changes to the deal agreed upon in good faith not so long ago.

But again I would underline the Brexit negotiations are not the UK vs the EU or The UK vs the ROI , what is maddening is neither Labour nor the Conservative’s have represented the multifaceted electorate of the UK over Brexit. Both Corbyn and May have decided to live in a cloud cuckoo land where the UK is united over the EU question. We are not. By a very long shot.

May’s (and Corbyn’s to be fair) current strategy of delivering fait accompli and assuming the Brexitteers and Remainers will simply shut up afterwards is ridiculous in my view.,


Very, very good points. They’re literally forgetting about half the population.


Guess someone’s not happy with the current agreement…


Really interesting remarks from Rudd today - first communication from her now she’s back in Cabinet, and it’s underscoring that ‘no deal’ won’t be allowed to happen by Parliament. So much for ‘my deal or no deal’.

If this is the strategy from No. 10, it’s focusing ‘my deal or no brexit’, which might get Tory eurosceptics on board, but has no chance of getting the DUP on side, and maybe even less hope for pragmatic Labour rebels. Will it attract Labour eurosceptics? The vote is going to be close. Really close.


This seems to be their only viable strategy. They’re not going to get the DUP on board with the backstop in the form it is, so they can only win by keeping as many of the ERG types on board as possible and winning over some Labour waverers. The best way to do that is to emphasise “no Brexit” as being the alternative to the deal.


What will be interesting to see is:

a) Will some eurosceptics (perhaps who might only have been riding the wave, rather than a ‘true believer’ type) decide ‘no brexit’ is actually preferable to this deal? Boris Johnson, for instance, seems to be leaning that way.

b) How many Labour members can be peeled away here? The ‘threat to democracy’ line certainly managed to get us this far. But ‘we tried, and what people wanted couldn’t be done’ is a pretty good defense.

c) How coordinated will this be? If the messaging gets split between ‘no brexit’ and ‘no deal’, then rather than voting against what they fear the most, MPs may vote the deal down on what they want the most. I’ll be interested to see how that unfolds.