Brexit, aka, the UK Becomes a Clown Car of the Highest Order

This is a good analogy.

So the above is being answered. May’s ‘my deal or not Brexit’ is not bringing Tory eurosceptics on board. This is quite bad for her.

The political debate seems remarkably dishonest to me. Politicians arguing against the WA are treating it like it is the final deal, rather than a definition of the relationship for a limited period. It’s a transition period, something which looks to me entirely unavoidable, except by cancelling Brexit instead. Are those opposed to the WA opposed to any transition period of any kind? If not, what sort of relationship did they envision during that transition period?

I think they envisioned a status quo style transition ( no change whatsoever, except for voting power in the EU) and no forced backstop regarding NI (that is, nothing that would give the EU any extra leverage during the final negotiations).

The part that is the backstop will be a final arrangement, unless Ireland/the EU agree that some new technology solves the border problem. That part severely constrains what any future relationship can look like.

But the backstop was agreed long before now, right? So the WA is basically no change on that score. And (still) no one has described the unicorn solution.

It was laid out in slightly more ambiguous terms, but yes. Many of us read the backstop agreed in December and said ‘well, we’re staying in the Customs Union then’. For some reason - and you’ll have to dig into the political reporting to try to understand why - this only became worth resigning over recently.

Weyand (who as a key Selmayr ally is one of the few EU players in this drama who will still be around when this is resolved) has also explicitly said that she sees the backstop as an excellent template for the future relationship. Since in the absence of EU agreement the backstop is what there is, I don’t see how it’s unreasonable to consider that the only way the final agreement doesn’t look like the backstop involves significant abandonment of NI.

I think that’s true, but I think it was always going to be the case. Either Brexit breaks the GFA, or Brexit includes at least NI staying in the customs union. It’s hard to see Ireland agreeing to anything else.

E.U. leaders approve Brexit plan, setting up vote in British Parliament
https://wapo.st/2FCBqmZ
Welp, the EU is ready to go along. Reluctantly, I’m sure. Doubt this does much to sway any British MPs, though.

Missing the Southern Ireland outpost around the Thames but If they added it I’d be in.

If you have a chance, it’s worth listening to the PM’s statement in the Commons.

It is not going well for her. Over an hour and not a single voice of support (and lots of fierce criticism, from every side).

She’s dug her heels in and none of this comes as a surprise.

If parliament throws it out, then what?

No deal?

Rescind article 50?

If the latter, Britain ought to start pushing it’s weight around to reform certain aspects of the EU.

Because in some respects Britain is getting mugged!

I still stand by earlier statements that we ought to reform.ourselves first though, then fix the EU, instead of blaming everything on ze germanz… Les escargots and the magnuski mafia.

I was talking to a colleague here and he said Britain couldn’t implement a policy like the one that was done unto me here in the canaries (I had to get health insurance to qualify for residency, whereas a Spaniard in England doesn’t) has something to do with the health system in Spain not being linked to personal contributions or something?

I couldn’t understand any of it!

Thoughts?

My baseline assumption at the moment is the initial vote goes against the deal, there’s a token effort at renegotiating, which might even end up with a token change, probably around governance, and then the second vote passes as people realise they’re staring no deal in the face.

My understanding is that the system was set up with continental welfare systems in mind, and that when you apply the letter of the regulations to the British situation you end up with a scenario where the UK is far less able to impose restrictions than other EU states. (Also the civil service is not keen to do it, which all to often results in things being “impossible” - see the “impossibility” of providing water supplies in the no deal scenario)*.

If they rescind they will have lost all their weight due to the whole Brexit fiasco. I doubt the EU will be as accomodating as it was before Brexit. I know many in the UK don’t want to hear it but the UK already had a fantastic deal with a ton of concession. If that wasn’t enough nothing will.

Reasonable. I think the potential for May’s resignation also exists following a failed vote, but I consider that less likely.

Or, even, both of the above

Really, anything could happen.

See, problem is that for some time at least, what weight?

-Do what we want because we’re Britain and we’re big.
-Nah, we’re good, but you can always leave if it’s that important to you… :D

Once you reveal your big master play is shooting yourself in the foot, threatening people with your big master play loses some of it’s oomph.

And I don’t know about the specifics of your situation, but Britain has tools that it could use to deport EU nationals who aren’t working, who are being a drain. It just opts not to use them, probably because it’s expensive.

And of course, we’re still waiting to see if Britain can revoke Article 50 unilaterally, there’s supposed to be a ECJ ruling on that coming up, though I’d bet first on a non deal pride is a difficult thing to go against.