May is deluded at this point if she thinks her worst of both worlds Brexit is going to fly. I dont see how she can stay as PM.
Today, in fact.
Notes from the hearing (NB written up by/for the petitioners). My gut feeling is that the petitioners would win on the substance but will lose on standing. But I don’t claim any expertise in ECJ jurisprudence.
If the ECJ rules that the UK can take back Artcle 50 all by itself, well, at the very least we can be sure there will be changes to the process, since it’s dumb as hell that countries can go “I’m leaving, gimme a deal! No? Guess I’ll stay then…”.
The court seemed to be exploring options other than unanimous consent for preventing abuse like that. Doesn’t mean they’ll opt for something else of course.
Eg:
Even if it doesn’t, the Commission and Council are now on record as saying revocation is possible with unanimous consent, so there’s a clear legal path to Remain which isn’t exit and re-entry.
Why is that dumb? And once the example is set that you won’t get the deal you want, why would anyone voluntarily take on the upheaval to gamble for nothing?
Because you either turn Article 50 into a non event “the EU never agrees to anything with leaving countries, all leaving is in the hardest conditions possible” or every country will eventually take it’s turn at leaving to see if it gets a more acceptable deal than what they currently have. Endless leaving attempts, either going forward or not depending on what the rest of the EU offers at the time.
There is no doubt at all about what the EU will offer leaving members, there never has been. The very best deal a leaving member will ever get is Norway, and if Norway is politically unacceptable to the leaving member (precisely because it contains conditions the leaving country is leaving to avoid), then they’ll get a WTA agreement and, perhaps later, something like Canada. For the EU to take any other approach with leaving members — to give them free trade without the other freedoms, for example — is to invite them to leave, and the EU will not do that.
The UK has gotten 2 years of political and economic chaos and uncertainty in order to discover what was predicted all along: That the EU will not let them have their cake and eat it too. No other sane country is going to do this, even if the UK were now allowed to change their mind and remain. This is doubly true because the rest of them are in the currency union. Imagine the insanity in the UK if they had to unravel that knot, too.
True, but we have an increasing number of apparently not sane countries in the EU now.
Well, we have damned crazy states over here, too, but none of them have tried to secede recently. Pour encourager los autres.
Granted if Mississippi and Alabama decides they wanted to go, I would be inclined to let them.
The US doesn’t have a formal secession mechanism. In fact, it has Supreme Court precedent that states can’t unilaterally secede, unlike the EU.
Yes, I know.
Sure we do: You try, we declare war on you and take you over.
Then do a half assed job of breaking the power of the racists and rebels, and stop the project a few decades too early, allowing them to create massive societal problems that we still see repercussions from to this day.
This pleases me. And what the EU leaders have been saying informally for a while. Still time to stop this madness. The world needs a grown up UK and a strong EU right now.
This seems very unwise.
There is only one thing that all UK MP’s take seriously, the supremacy of Parliament. You simply dont get to dodge what the House of Commons says. The government of the day must obey it, not treat it like advice and consent. Its not that system at all.
It’s supremely stupid to try and ignore either of the houses.
Hammond has apparently gone on TV and told admitted leaving the EU - even with May’s deal - will make us all poorer than otherwise. May’s deal will just reduce the damage. This isn’t new, but it’s new for the government to be waltzing around saying it. Presumably this is Phil’s way of ‘helping’ to sell the deal.
The UK would be significantly worse off under all possible Brexit scenarios in 15 years’ time, according to a benchmark economic analysis produced by a range of government departments including the Treasury.
The keenly anticipated document concludes that GDP would be 0.6% lower under the Chequers plan in 2035-36 – although that has been ditched after a revolt from the Conservative right – and 7.7% lower in the event of the UK crashing out with no deal, when compared with the UK remaining in the European Union.