Brexit, aka, the UK Shoots Itself


#2250

Weyand (who as a key Selmayr ally is one of the few EU players in this drama who will still be around when this is resolved) has also explicitly said that she sees the backstop as an excellent template for the future relationship. Since in the absence of EU agreement the backstop is what there is, I don’t see how it’s unreasonable to consider that the only way the final agreement doesn’t look like the backstop involves significant abandonment of NI.


#2251

I think that’s true, but I think it was always going to be the case. Either Brexit breaks the GFA, or Brexit includes at least NI staying in the customs union. It’s hard to see Ireland agreeing to anything else.


#2252

E.U. leaders approve Brexit plan, setting up vote in British Parliament
https://wapo.st/2FCBqmZ
Welp, the EU is ready to go along. Reluctantly, I’m sure. Doubt this does much to sway any British MPs, though.


#2253

#2254

Missing the Southern Ireland outpost around the Thames but If they added it I’d be in.


#2255

If you have a chance, it’s worth listening to the PM’s statement in the Commons.

It is not going well for her. Over an hour and not a single voice of support (and lots of fierce criticism, from every side).


#2256

She’s dug her heels in and none of this comes as a surprise.

If parliament throws it out, then what?

No deal?

Rescind article 50?

If the latter, Britain ought to start pushing it’s weight around to reform certain aspects of the EU.

Because in some respects Britain is getting mugged!

I still stand by earlier statements that we ought to reform.ourselves first though, then fix the EU, instead of blaming everything on ze germanz… Les escargots and the magnuski mafia.

I was talking to a colleague here and he said Britain couldn’t implement a policy like the one that was done unto me here in the canaries (I had to get health insurance to qualify for residency, whereas a Spaniard in England doesn’t) has something to do with the health system in Spain not being linked to personal contributions or something?

I couldn’t understand any of it!

Thoughts?


#2257

My baseline assumption at the moment is the initial vote goes against the deal, there’s a token effort at renegotiating, which might even end up with a token change, probably around governance, and then the second vote passes as people realise they’re staring no deal in the face.


#2258

My understanding is that the system was set up with continental welfare systems in mind, and that when you apply the letter of the regulations to the British situation you end up with a scenario where the UK is far less able to impose restrictions than other EU states. (Also the civil service is not keen to do it, which all to often results in things being “impossible” - see the “impossibility” of providing water supplies in the no deal scenario)*.


#2259

If they rescind they will have lost all their weight due to the whole Brexit fiasco. I doubt the EU will be as accomodating as it was before Brexit. I know many in the UK don’t want to hear it but the UK already had a fantastic deal with a ton of concession. If that wasn’t enough nothing will.


#2260

Reasonable. I think the potential for May’s resignation also exists following a failed vote, but I consider that less likely.

Or, even, both of the above

Really, anything could happen.


#2261

See, problem is that for some time at least, what weight?

-Do what we want because we’re Britain and we’re big.
-Nah, we’re good, but you can always leave if it’s that important to you… :D

Once you reveal your big master play is shooting yourself in the foot, threatening people with your big master play loses some of it’s oomph.

And I don’t know about the specifics of your situation, but Britain has tools that it could use to deport EU nationals who aren’t working, who are being a drain. It just opts not to use them, probably because it’s expensive.

And of course, we’re still waiting to see if Britain can revoke Article 50 unilaterally, there’s supposed to be a ECJ ruling on that coming up, though I’d bet first on a non deal pride is a difficult thing to go against.


#2262

May is deluded at this point if she thinks her worst of both worlds Brexit is going to fly. I dont see how she can stay as PM.


#2263

Today, in fact.


#2264

Notes from the hearing (NB written up by/for the petitioners). My gut feeling is that the petitioners would win on the substance but will lose on standing. But I don’t claim any expertise in ECJ jurisprudence.


#2265

If the ECJ rules that the UK can take back Artcle 50 all by itself, well, at the very least we can be sure there will be changes to the process, since it’s dumb as hell that countries can go “I’m leaving, gimme a deal! No? Guess I’ll stay then…”.


#2266

The court seemed to be exploring options other than unanimous consent for preventing abuse like that. Doesn’t mean they’ll opt for something else of course.
Eg:

Even if it doesn’t, the Commission and Council are now on record as saying revocation is possible with unanimous consent, so there’s a clear legal path to Remain which isn’t exit and re-entry.


#2267

Why is that dumb? And once the example is set that you won’t get the deal you want, why would anyone voluntarily take on the upheaval to gamble for nothing?


#2268

Because you either turn Article 50 into a non event “the EU never agrees to anything with leaving countries, all leaving is in the hardest conditions possible” or every country will eventually take it’s turn at leaving to see if it gets a more acceptable deal than what they currently have. Endless leaving attempts, either going forward or not depending on what the rest of the EU offers at the time.


#2269

There is no doubt at all about what the EU will offer leaving members, there never has been. The very best deal a leaving member will ever get is Norway, and if Norway is politically unacceptable to the leaving member (precisely because it contains conditions the leaving country is leaving to avoid), then they’ll get a WTA agreement and, perhaps later, something like Canada. For the EU to take any other approach with leaving members — to give them free trade without the other freedoms, for example — is to invite them to leave, and the EU will not do that.

The UK has gotten 2 years of political and economic chaos and uncertainty in order to discover what was predicted all along: That the EU will not let them have their cake and eat it too. No other sane country is going to do this, even if the UK were now allowed to change their mind and remain. This is doubly true because the rest of them are in the currency union. Imagine the insanity in the UK if they had to unravel that knot, too.