Brexit, aka, the UK Shoots Itself


#2270

True, but we have an increasing number of apparently not sane countries in the EU now.


#2271

Well, we have damned crazy states over here, too, but none of them have tried to secede recently. Pour encourager los autres.


#2272

Granted if Mississippi and Alabama decides they wanted to go, I would be inclined to let them.


#2273

The US doesn’t have a formal secession mechanism. In fact, it has Supreme Court precedent that states can’t unilaterally secede, unlike the EU.


#2274

Yes, I know.


#2275

Sure we do: You try, we declare war on you and take you over.


#2276

Then do a half assed job of breaking the power of the racists and rebels, and stop the project a few decades too early, allowing them to create massive societal problems that we still see repercussions from to this day.


#2277

9c60565311a6c602fd501b02a8c18f5b

This pleases me. And what the EU leaders have been saying informally for a while. Still time to stop this madness. The world needs a grown up UK and a strong EU right now.


#2278

This seems very unwise.

There is only one thing that all UK MP’s take seriously, the supremacy of Parliament. You simply dont get to dodge what the House of Commons says. The government of the day must obey it, not treat it like advice and consent. Its not that system at all.


#2279

It’s supremely stupid to try and ignore either of the houses.


#2280

Hammond has apparently gone on TV and told admitted leaving the EU - even with May’s deal - will make us all poorer than otherwise. May’s deal will just reduce the damage. This isn’t new, but it’s new for the government to be waltzing around saying it. Presumably this is Phil’s way of ‘helping’ to sell the deal.


#2281

The UK would be significantly worse off under all possible Brexit scenarios in 15 years’ time, according to a benchmark economic analysis produced by a range of government departments including the Treasury.

The keenly anticipated document concludes that GDP would be 0.6% lower under the Chequers plan in 2035-36 – although that has been ditched after a revolt from the Conservative right – and 7.7% lower in the event of the UK crashing out with no deal, when compared with the UK remaining in the European Union.


#2282


#2283

Project Fear in the referendum has had a real impact on the credibility of Whitehall saying no deal will be a disaster. They clearly just made up their projections pre-Brexit, so why should we take their projections on the deal/ no deal scenarios seriously?

Of course on no-deal they might well have a point. But the BoE projections have managed to screw it up by not only using an extreme model for the damage done by a “disorderly Brexit” (which is actually pretty credible) but also by ignoring traditional economic models where the excess capacity would lead to at least some of the loss in GDP being recovered over subsequent years (Above the trend growth rate). When Krugman is accusing them of motivated reasoning it becomes very easy for people who voted leave the first time round, or don’t like the way the EU has handled the negotiations, to discount the warnings about no deal in their entirety.


#2284

Surprises nobody. Brexit = worse economy = job losses has been obvious from day 1.

Although maybe the Brexit boys will wake up when they lose their jobs over it.

By which time it will be too late of course.


#2285

The disordedly Brexit scenario is not a projection, it’s a stress test.It’s supposed to be an extreme model - they say in the description that it’s based on worst case assumptions at every turn.


#2286

Ahha, yes the Bank do say that. I hadn’t realised that because pretty much every news story I’ve seen refers to these as projections, complete with the bank of England produced graphic showing what looks like a 5 year GDP projection - even though as you say the model used is intended to measure banking sector stress and not forecast medium term GDP. (Not including any bounceback makes sense in this context, it’s a nightmare to model and not really relevant to the question at hand).

Seems like another reason to distrust Whitehall to me :)


#2287

America here, they wont. They’ll blame the Jews or Muslims. Have fun.


#2288

If they lose jobs, more likely to blame the EU. After all, why change now?


#2289

I predict the UK blaming the EU for allowing them to leave.

It might seem I’m joking, but I’m not.