Brexit, aka, the UK Becomes a Clown Car of the Highest Order

Project Fear in the referendum has had a real impact on the credibility of Whitehall saying no deal will be a disaster. They clearly just made up their projections pre-Brexit, so why should we take their projections on the deal/ no deal scenarios seriously?

Of course on no-deal they might well have a point. But the BoE projections have managed to screw it up by not only using an extreme model for the damage done by a “disorderly Brexit” (which is actually pretty credible) but also by ignoring traditional economic models where the excess capacity would lead to at least some of the loss in GDP being recovered over subsequent years (Above the trend growth rate). When Krugman is accusing them of motivated reasoning it becomes very easy for people who voted leave the first time round, or don’t like the way the EU has handled the negotiations, to discount the warnings about no deal in their entirety.

Surprises nobody. Brexit = worse economy = job losses has been obvious from day 1.

Although maybe the Brexit boys will wake up when they lose their jobs over it.

By which time it will be too late of course.

The disordedly Brexit scenario is not a projection, it’s a stress test.It’s supposed to be an extreme model - they say in the description that it’s based on worst case assumptions at every turn.

Ahha, yes the Bank do say that. I hadn’t realised that because pretty much every news story I’ve seen refers to these as projections, complete with the bank of England produced graphic showing what looks like a 5 year GDP projection - even though as you say the model used is intended to measure banking sector stress and not forecast medium term GDP. (Not including any bounceback makes sense in this context, it’s a nightmare to model and not really relevant to the question at hand).

Seems like another reason to distrust Whitehall to me :)

America here, they wont. They’ll blame the Jews or Muslims. Have fun.

If they lose jobs, more likely to blame the EU. After all, why change now?

I predict the UK blaming the EU for allowing them to leave.

It might seem I’m joking, but I’m not.

Oh I think you are right. I would throw in the reminder that this is not a UK vs EU issue though. The UK is NOT united in anyway shape or form over leaving the EU.

Which frustrates me so much when May & Corbyn pretend it is.

This is almost entirely remainers’ fault. They (mostly) chose to vote for Corbyn’s party rather than a party lead by someone who would actually represent their views.

Lib Dems you mean? Yeah thats a fair point.

If every single remainer who voted for Labour had instead voted for the Lib-Dems, that would have made a difference in the outcome and put remainers in charge?

Narrator: No, it would not.

It would have made Vince Cable leader of the opposition, but of course you didn’t bother to read my post, because you never do.

Hell, if Labour party members (who overwhelmingly support remaining in the EU) had demanded a leader who was actually pro-European, that would have been enough to ensure a major party enthusiastically backing remain.

Of course I read your post. It was two sentences long and I quoted both of them. How would thing be actually different now had Labour remainers done what you suggest? It seems to me that May would still be in charge of a Tory government determined to drive off the cliff, and nothing Vince Cable or any putative pro-Europe Labour leader had to say about it would make any difference. It would still be the case that the government were ignoring the wishes of something close to half the population, and it would still be the case that the opposition could do nothing to stop them.

Not all labour voters are remainers. If every remain voter who voted for labour voted for the lib dems instead, it would certainly have increased the LD MP numbers, but moreover it would have taken the Tories to a fairly large majority thanks to the first-past-the-post system. And then we’d be in an even worse mess than we are now.

Anyway, not all remain voters have the same priorities. Sure, for many people it was the single most important issue at the last election; many others would prefer we remain but it wasn’t their one and only concern when it came to choosing a party to vote for. It’s not fair to define them entirely by their Brexit viewpoint and then use that to accuse them of voting for a party that doesn’t represent their views.

The real problem in labour in my view is the divergence in ideology between the parliamentary party and the core supporters. That is what has resulted in Corbyn gaining power; his opposition to Europe on ideological grounds (very different grounds from most Brexiteers’) is why the opposition to Brexit feels so ineffective.

By that token everyone should be ignoring the Brexiteers.

Yet they’re not.

So you’re wrong.

Oh I was assuming everyone here is pretty much ignoring the brexiteers economic projections, founded as they are on wishful thinking and pixie dust

I oscillate between deep concern and then not giving a f*ck.

Right now the latter! 😅

8 days until the vote.

Today, we have the next part in the ongoing legal row regarding ‘an humble address’, and maybe the government will be held in contempt of parliament (I doubt it will).