More fear-mongering, this time in the court room.
Was telling my taxi driver how we are now in the last stages of Go Live for our EU regulated entities, and he insisted no one would be moving because the EU Army means we will all be conscripted and “how awful Paris is”.
I’m like No we moved. Its done. The decision made ages ago. The investment made. The offices leased. The comms and networks installed. The licences in hand. The only thing remaining is Go/No Go and final novation. It’s what our customers want and need. They dont give a shit about the EU Army or Paris nightlife or any of those lies idiot fucking taxi drivers have swallowed. Its not about us. Our customers needed EU products and EU access and they were given it.
Man, this is getting tight. It seems no deal can be reached in March (there seems to be the same disconnect between the UK-EU intentions as always).
Deadline extension is the most likely outcome, but the UK will have to present a clear intention to change its red lines and I can’t see that happening either.
Even with a deal, we’re out of time to pass critical legislation. We need an extension. I don’t know how May is going to ask for that, but given she has no reputation left to destroy, I guess she can just U-turn on this too.
I see the problem not on the UK side but the EU side. They have repeteadly said that an extension would be granted only if a deal was made (as just needed legislation time) or the UK showed real willingness to change its red lines (change of government, referendum, etc…).
Yes, it might all be a negotiating position and they might fudge it, but so far every time they said they were going to be firm about something they have been.
The Challenge is agreeing a deal, once a deal is agreed a 3 month extension will pass easily. The fear of an extension is that it is a bridge to no Brexit.
Even if one of the EU27 blocks the extension as long as the U.K. ratified the deal they will just ignore the missing legislation as arrange,ents get made.
However at the moment parliament has a bare majority for a deal that is way outside what the EU will accept, so getting to a deal by end of Feb looks impossible.
I don’t even think a deal needs to be arranged for an extension, if we ask for it. Europe isn’t going to want chaos and recrimination on its northern border if it can be averted by a few months wiggle room.
If it starts interfering with EU elections, well, that might be harder (but not insurmountable either).
But we need an executive willing to ask for an extension. Maybe she can do it and blame Labour.
I’d be surprised if there was an extension at this stage. I think the strategy is to run down the clock and force a vote between Mays deal, no deal and no Brexit. If May can get a little sugar to sprinkle on top from the EU then her deal will probably pass.
Yeah, but what evidence will they have that it can be, given that the UK’s MO is basically, “We don’t like the backstop but we have no practical suggestions on how to replace it”. Why would delaying a few months do any good when all that we’ve come up with since the deal was agreed is “alternative arrangements”. There’s also the issue that extension requires unanimous consent. All it takes is one country to say piss off and it’s done, absent a revocation.
But the EU knows this and wants the no Brexit option. So it will probably avoid giving any sugar and hope that saner heads win out if it becomes a choice between the other two options.
Personally I see it as likely that the EU will agree an extension if it’s to allow time for a referendum or general election. Something that has a fair chance of resulting in a substantive change in policy. Far less likely if it’s just to extend negotiations, given the lack of realistic progress.
That’s a big worry. Europe says “we don’t see how a few months would even help - so no”.
But if it gets to the point the PM is begging the EU to extend things, and is denied that, things are getting into government collapsing, recriminations and blame all-round territory.
What a mess.
I think we’re in government collapsing, recriminations and blame all-round territory no matter what happens.
We’re in a state of self induced paralysis. Everyone knows that no-deal will throw the country into chaos and upend the political status quo, ie, political suicide for the current regime when the populance realises their grocery bill has tripled… but at the same time, no one dares break ranks.
What we really need is a shake-up of the parties; the xenophobes in the Tories should join up with the racists in the Labour party; and then the Tory MP’s that actually care about the economy should join up with the majority of the Labour party who want to keep EU protections and work regulations. Right now we have two parties but four factions (and then the poor LibDems huddled somewhere out of sight).
I don’t think the EU will refuse an extension if there seems to be a viable path to a deal.
At the moment, though, the British government are living in some kind of lala-land alternative reality, so who knows what’s going to happen? I mean, the resolution they voted on is not just unrealistic, it’s completely meaningless - We don’t like “X”, so we are voting for “not X”. It’s just absurd - if you want to negotiate an alternative, at least come with a concrete, specific proposal.
Of course, the likelihood that the Tories would be able to get a majority around a specific proposal was probably non-existent (it’s always much easier to vote for something nebulous), so…
It seems like the UK’s politicians have completely abandoned their responsibilities to govern the country at this point - and honestly, that goes for both Tories and Labour.
I think the way of looking at the problem is this:
The pro-Brexit position on the Irish border runs the gamut from I don’t mind / don’t care about a hard border there to I want a hard border there. Given that, none of those people will abandon Brexit in order to avoid a hard border, because they care about Brexit a lot more than they care about the possibility of a hard border. So Brexit will happen regardless of what it means for Ireland and Northern Ireland.
The EU on the other hand cares more about the Irish border than they do about a soft landing for the UK. Since the UK will not offer any Brexit deal which preserves the current state of the border / prevents a hard border, then there is no UK-offered deal which the EU can accept. So that means no deal.
So: There will be a no-deal Brexit and a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.
And yet the government is still going and nothing bad (enough) has yet happened for serious recriminations and blame all-round. So we will stumble on for at least two more weeks in this fashion (the next ‘meaningful vote’) and I imagine some time after that.
Oh yes. I mean the government will collapse no later than fairly soon after Brexit day, with or without a deal.
Unless the DUP decide they hate the deal sufficiently to get rid of the government, I’m not sure I see why.
Any collapse I see happening now is because some Tory rebels have a fit of conscience and realise no-deal Brexit is de-facto government policy, and there is only one way to stop it.
Because the half of the population that is waiting happily for no-deal suddenly realizes it means they can’t buy groceries, and heads roll.
If May passes a backstoppy deal with Labour, the ERG and/or DUP dump her. If she doesn’t pass a deal and Article 50 is revoked, the ERG and maybe even DUP dump her. If she doesn’t pass a deal and we crash out, then we’re going to have the mother of all economic and political crises that no government could survive.