Brexit, aka, the UK Shoots Itself


#2990

To be fair today’s votes made it clear the problem is the backstop (despite claims by EU diplomats to the contrary after the last WA vote). So we should be able to make deals that don’t involve Ireland!

Thinking about this tonight this is yet another instance of the two sides not understanding each other. From the EU’s perspective the idea that NI being part of the EU was utterly critical (which maybe it was, I’m not saying this is necessarily wrong) to the peace process plays into the EU-as-peacebringer founding mythos, and so it becomes a moral imperative to maintain that state of affairs. From the UK side anyone with sympathy towards unionism in general (although not the DUP in specific) sees a deal that almost every unionist denounces and thinks that would be disastrous to the peace process, so it becomes a moral imperative to oppose it.

Certainly the Westminster tendency to try and ignore NI whenever possible has been hugely unhelpful.

That’s nonsense. The EU agreed to give all states the right to withdraw.


#2991

UK made deals to enter the EU and then reneged. How long until they renege on the deals they’re making (or not making yet) now?


#2992

Except that you already agreed to the backstop, and now you’re reneging on that deal. Why should anyone trust you as a negotiating partner?


#2993

Have to share this.


#2994

checks notes A few hours ago.


#2995

If those deals involve going against what was promised to Ireland, then the EU would be stupid to consider them. You do not majorly piss off a member of the Union for the sake of a third country.

Anyway, the EU already said they’re not going to renegotiate, let’s see how solid that commitment is


#2996

Failing to ratify a treaty is not “reneging on a deal”, as you well know.


#2997

The government accepting and backing a hostile amendment which rewrites the deal is, though.


#2998

Of course it is. It may be the right choice, depending on the deal, but agreeing to a deal and then backing out of it is reneging.


#2999

It would be if they could pass the deal. I think we all know they can’t.


#3000

I have no idea what you’re responding to. Maybe you should read my post more carefully?

I certainly don’t expect the EU to change their stance on the backstop, I don’t know what gave you the idea that I did.


#3001

So we should be able to make deals that don’t involve Ireland!

The EU promised Ireland that it wouldn’t make deals without assuring an open border in NI, so, deals that don’t involve Ireland are still deals that go against what was promised to Ireland.

Clear enough?


#3002

Let me quote this all for you since you apparently can’t track a simple conversation.

Note that at this point I am responding to your point and talking about “the people the UK will next want to make trade deals with”

Suddenly you are talking about the EU deal again. Do you have any idea how frustrating dealing with this kind of behaviour, intentional or not, is? I mean obviously I am not talking about the deal with the EU, because any deal with the EU involves Ireland because Ireland is part of the EU.


#3003

Tory PMs really need to read Rogers. Though probably they already have, and have decided that they surely know better. Or alternatively, don’t really care, and just want a no deal.

The EU isn’t going to renegotiate the backstop. Why should it? You don’t fold when you’re holding all the aces.


#3004

Ah, got it, I thought your not involving Ireland line was about a EU deal not directly related to Ireland.

But sure, other deals the UK might agree with non EU entities will be easier in that they’ll lack the Ireland problem, but the UK is probably the country where any new trade deal will be politicized the most, compared to EU membership, etc. They’ll all be difficult.


#3005

More fear-mongering, this time in the court room.


#3006

Was telling my taxi driver how we are now in the last stages of Go Live for our EU regulated entities, and he insisted no one would be moving because the EU Army means we will all be conscripted and “how awful Paris is”.

I’m like No we moved. Its done. The decision made ages ago. The investment made. The offices leased. The comms and networks installed. The licences in hand. The only thing remaining is Go/No Go and final novation. It’s what our customers want and need. They dont give a shit about the EU Army or Paris nightlife or any of those lies idiot fucking taxi drivers have swallowed. Its not about us. Our customers needed EU products and EU access and they were given it.


#3007

Man, this is getting tight. It seems no deal can be reached in March (there seems to be the same disconnect between the UK-EU intentions as always).

Deadline extension is the most likely outcome, but the UK will have to present a clear intention to change its red lines and I can’t see that happening either.


#3008

Even with a deal, we’re out of time to pass critical legislation. We need an extension. I don’t know how May is going to ask for that, but given she has no reputation left to destroy, I guess she can just U-turn on this too.


#3009

I see the problem not on the UK side but the EU side. They have repeteadly said that an extension would be granted only if a deal was made (as just needed legislation time) or the UK showed real willingness to change its red lines (change of government, referendum, etc…).

Yes, it might all be a negotiating position and they might fudge it, but so far every time they said they were going to be firm about something they have been.