Nobody will realise that until it happens.
Ah, right. I actually think extension/revocation won’t be enough to bring down the government, and I’m not even sure a backstop will mean she’s brought down after the fact. (Though maybe. The DUP might.)
One thing this whole show has taught me is that political parties hold together far more than I realised.
I think a lot of the reason that the ERG has been a paper tiger so far is that they think bringing down the government is (more) likely to stop Brexit. If Brexit is stopped anyway, then that’s not an issue any more. And if they don’t bring down the government at that point, they truly show themselves as a busted flush and they’ll never have any leverage ever again. Maybe they hate Corbyn enough to stomach that, but I don’t think so, at least for the hardcore.
I don’t think extension will bring down the government, BTW, though it’s possible.
But if we’ve left, it’s over. What’s their incentive to bring down the government other than revenge? They’ll lose their leverage entirely when they are unsupported by Tory party HQ in the following GE and lose their seats.
May will not still control Tory party HQ if she supports revocation or referendum.
Well, for a start, from their perspective, if we have a backstop, we haven’t left. But I don’t envisage them standing as Tories in that event unless May is toppled. It’s an SDP scenario.
No, but voting against your government in a Vote of No Confidence is going to get you removed from the party. (And this discussion was not in the scenario where she supports those things, but where she passes a withdrawal agreement with Labour support over the heads of the ERG/DUP/Tory party.)
Well, maybe. May might just stand down at that point and we get a new PM without a GE, so it would have to be more than May they have issue with.
Speaking of May:
That’s a more interesting question.
I also think May would not still control Tory HQ if supported a “Norway plus” BINO.
Some other deal? Maybe. But any deal where Labour demand policy concessions to be enforced by treaty with the EU - even though they had not been demanded by the EU - would be an affront to democracy. I can see it being hard to make that argument cut through with the public though.
I suppose the pithy retort I can offer would be ‘You think May is in control of Tory HQ now?’
Heh. This forum needs emoticons :)
I intend to be in the country around Brexit day time.
So much drama and it’s important.
I ought to be there.
Well, this is one no-deal cliff edge averted:
Hooray!
In English?
All flights from the UK to Europe won’t be grounded on Brexit day.
A glimmer of common sense then.
Also, Brexit stinks:
Well, the aircraft will be certified, but aren’t there about a hundred other agreements that have to be made before international travel is allowed?
Per an interview by the Portuguese Foreign Minister there have been a bunch of unilateral moves by the EU countries to try and keep stuff going normally on Brexit day. Planes flying between EU countries, British nationals not needing visas, British lorries in EU roads, giving British nationals a year after Brexit to regularize their status, even food inspections will be assumed to be okay, all to try and contain the chaos.
Of course, this containment is probably geared towards the EU side, and no mention of how long such measures will go on for, I’m assuming this will all be temporary.
Thats pretty funny tbf :)