Brexit, aka, the UK Shoots Itself


#3551

laughs
I agree.


#3552

Answers on a postcard as to what will happen next?

I think a 2nd ref is too extreme a view to get support in Parliament, much like a no deal Brexit. Although I think its chances vastly improve if there is a long delay (years rather than months).
NB: “the peoples vote” monicker is almost as stupid as “the meaningful vote”

It sounds like we’ll see Mays undead deal return next week but that’s also looking unlikely to pass either. I think the manner in which it’s being rammed through Parliament is disgusting. However I guess it remains the best chance to break the deadlock?


#3553

Impossible to call.

The only thing I’m absolutely sure of, is that no one will make the politically suicidal (but rational, if one cares about the UK) choice of revoking Article 50.

Beyond that, it’s anyone’s guess. Currently, it doesn’t seem that there is a majority for anything at all in the British parliament. If I were pressed to it, I’d guess that they’ll try to kick the can down the road (delay), but I’m far from certain that the EU will agree. You do need all 27 countries to agree, and it’s obvious that some countries are beginning to lose patience with this farce.


#3554

Because the remain vote won’t be primarily predicated on lies like the leave vote was. Face it. One side’s entire tactics were based on sleight of hand or outrageous mistruths. The other side did not have Russia bankrolling it’s bots and ads.

I have to ask those of you who want out of the EU. What do you think about the fact you’re doing Russia’s bidding here? You know… that evil country that keeps assassinating people on your sovereign soil? Doesn’t something stink just a little bit when the world’s villain is working so hard to get you to leave the EU?


#3555

No idea either if I am honest. I know what I WANT but that’s different.


#3556

If the EU allows a short extension but then (later) vetos a long extension that would allow them to say, we’ve done as much as we can. We gave you an extension but we cannot continue on indefinitely. That would allow May increased leverage to get her deal through whilst also allowing the EU to avoid the political position of “forcing” the UK out.


#3557

You think May’s deal (slightly modified) is the most likely outcome?

I genuinely dont know. It feels like there are six or so outcomes all with a fairly low chance of happening right now.

I do think there will be a general election this year somehow but I have no evidence to back that up :)


#3558

The idea that having a 2nd referendum is somehow some perversion of democracy (quoth Theresa May):

‘We’re not having a 2nd referendum. The will of the people is clear. You can’t just keep have referendums until you’re happy with the result,’

Is just … weird. How many times are you going to vote on Theresa May’s Brexit deal? Is this the third or fourth time? Surely the will of the people’s representatives is abundantly clear by now.


#3559

No idea.

But necessary (certainly not sufficient) is another general election. I do not see how anything can be resolved, in any direction, without one. It will get worse until we again have a government that commands a majority in the commons.


#3560

The Christchurch shooter on Brexit.

Were/are you a supporter of Brexit?
Yes, though not for an official policy made. The truth is that eventually people must face the fact that it wasn;t a damn thing to do with the economy.That it was the British people firing back at mass immigration, cultural displacement and globalism, and that;s a great and wonderful thing.

This is the same thing we’ve heard day in day out from the Brexiters. Our US users really need to understand what Brexit represents and who supports it.


#3561

Yes, but that government was making promises it couldn’t keep. The refrain for this sorry process…


#3562

The Channel isn’t enough? There must be a lot of awesome swimmers in the mainland.


#3563

…debate is always improved with a Douglas Adams quote.


#3564

You are completely pulling this out of your arse. Firstly as an answer to draxxen; because he didn’t even claim that the referendum was legally binding, just that the government had promised to implement the result. Your tone of triumph as you quote him and respond to the quote with a complete non-sequitor is entirely misplaced.

And your pretending that we didn’t make a real decision, is just as much pulling things out of your arse. It would have been literally impossible for the referendum to be legally binding. So what? We all knew we were deciding our future. The UK government website describing the referendum was thoroughly straight-forward. We knew it was real, and the importance was obvious to everyone.

All this “advisory” and “not legally binding” excuse-making is entirely post hoc. No one was saying that at the time. But democratic discourse always seems to be blighted by the skin-deep democrats, the kind of people who see their side lose a vote and suddenly start constructing reasons why it wasn’t legitimate.


#3565

I don’t think that it’s so weird when you consider how many MPs seems to have no the slightest understanding of what a representative democracy. One take away from this whole debacle is how poor so many MPs are.


#3566

It feels like the most likely to me. I bet that there’s some combination of legal wording plus bribes that can get the DUP on board. The question is, are the ERG types spooked enough by the idea of an extension that they finally fall in line, or are they so thoroughly pissed off and radicalised that they’ll never vote for May? It’s really hard to tell from outside.

A general election seems unlikely to me, only because it would surely be suicide for the Conservatives. But I guess a few pissed off Tory rebels could be pissed off enough to throw a vote of No Confidence?

I’m hoping for May’s deal to go down for a third time next week. And for the EU27 to be nice to us. Then a whole bunch of other low-probability options might become possible (second referendum, renegotiation of a new deal inside the customs union, something something I’m not sure what).


#3567

Why should the EU27 be nice to you at this point? Honestly they should told you to take a hike a long time ago. Draxen thinks you will weather it just fine, I’m pretty certain the EU will come out of it ok.


#3568

Why shouldn’t they? I think there are practical reasons to not want a no deal Brexit. It might hurt Britain most, on average, but it’s still going to hurt in Europe too. And international diplomacy doesn’t have to be about screwing people as hard as possible just to make a point.


#3569

Seems an easily disprovable statement if we found people saying it at the time - before the vote - then?

The simple answer to the question as to whether the EU referendum is legally binding is “no”.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/23/eu-referendum-legally-binding-brexit-lisbon-cameron-sovereign-parliament

That is because the result of the June 23 referendum on Britain’s EU membership is not legally binding.
https://www.businessinsider.com/green-eu-referendum-not-legally-binding-brexit-2016-6?r=US&IR=T

a non-binding advisory vote
https://www.ft.com/content/5b82031e-1056-31e1-8e0e-4e91774e27f1

the referendum’s outcome isn’t itself legally binding
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/02/19/whats-a-brexit-a-guide-to-britains-e-u-drama-for-confused-non-europeans/?utm_term=.cb8e6be8b807

The referendum result is not legally binding. Parliament still has to pass the laws that will get Britain out of the EU, starting with the repeal of the 1972 European Communities Act.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36044026

You get the idea.

Yes, the Tory Government made a promise to implement the result, and it was their responsibility to try to implement it. You may remember they called an election and lost their majority, along with their mandate. But excuse me if I don’t go and fight tooth and nail to uphold a disastrous Tory policy. If the Tories won an election on a manifesto promising devastating austerity measures, should we not fight against that? Or just shrug and say “will of the people”?


#3570

I don’t know if this is true, and I am inclined to think it gives Russia too much credit.

I do know a fractured EU and a chaotic USA benefits Putin though.

Nigel Farage was pre-emptively calling for a second referendum when he thought leave would lose.

As opposed to those who present the facts fully and fairly, don’tresort to racism and scare tactics?

As opposed to those who, now that we see what deals are actually possible, and the complexities therein, instead of the super easy ride to heaven that was promised, still want to push on even though it is against the country’s interest.

Lastly, advisory. No requirement to implement the referendum result (and considering there is legitimate concern over the manner in which the referendum was run, that alone should give pause) and no time limit.

Like I said, if the government had deemed it politically expedient to leave, then it should have invited the prominent Leavers to present their proposals, and used that time to see which laws can and should be changed, and to prepare the groundwork, and do all of that BEFORE starting the Article 50 clock.

The current panic is entirely self inflicted, and given that none of the offers currently presented please anyone (Britain out but not out because of N.Ireland) etc, and given that the referendum was a question put to the people, then it follows that the people should get a vote on the current situation, especially as MPs clearly can’t make that decision.

So, as I proposed:

Stay in the EU
Leave with May’s deal
Leave with No deal
Leave with Deal X

etc.

And then, once that result comes in, then you proceed.

If the majority say, hey you know what it sucks but it’s the best we have and I am sick of the process, let’s go for May’s deal, then she can actually go back to Brussels with a real mandate, instead of the embarrassment that is the current situation.