If you google you are apt to get quite varying narratives.
I think this is the theme of our times:
information overload and a lack of filters.
Part of me thinks she’ll get the deal through by promising her resignation.
Part of me thinks the perfect end to her tenure would be announcing her resignation to get her party to vote for it and still failing to get it to pass.
Time will tell.
And then not resigning!
So is this all just part of a continuing poker game that May has been playing?
She tried threats of no deal, now she’s trying threats of soft brexit/2nd referendum/no brexit.
I think her deal is still dead despite best efforts. So that means:
a) Will she defy Parliament and no deal occurs
b) Will she capitulate and head for long extension - soft brexit/2nd referendum/no brexit
Or option 3, capitulate, but not get extension.
Sadly I dont think she is thinking ahead at all. Her entire government seems just genuinely incompetent.
I got a response about the petition which was nice. Less nice is I now see why so many MP’s are frustrated by this government. So blindly stubborn and dismissive of feedback. Way to piss off voters by dismissing their concerns lets assume 50% of the 5.8 million petition were duplicates or fakes etc, thats still a lot of pissed off people. They probably deserve at least a “we will take on board your feedback thank you” instead of the flat “we are ignoring you” response.
Still I appreciated a reply.
The response is online here.
However in some good news. So far employment is holding, which is great regardless of which side you are on.
Actually that’s a misapprehension based on the “life expectancy at birth” statistics. They went way up during the late 19th and 20th Centuries mostly because due to better water and sewer systems + vaccines, the early childhood mortality rate dropped like a stone, which greatly improved the statistics. Yes heart bypass surgery, hip replacement and the like have extended elders lives some, but not (as a cohort) by 20 to 30 years.
Heh, chances of that. There’s more chance of successfully navigating an asteroid field.
Its at 5.82m now. Its opposite number, a pro Brexit petition has 147k sigs.
The march on Saturday had an estimate done with some fancy ant counting software.
The last time the ethno-nationalists gathered that many people to march in support of their ideology Leni Riefenstahl was filming it.
You talk about “high rhetoric”, and then follow it up with the statement that she forced policy on every single EU member nation?
BS.
She pushed through legislation in her own nation, which is 100% her right as chancellor of Germany. That is not arrogance, and if you think so… you really, really need to remember what national sovereignty means. Within the EU, she did nothing on this matter to which any reasonable, sound-minded person can object.
So much this.
I think the odds are slowly but surely shifting to Hard Brexit.
I think she will try to the end to get her deal through. She’ll continue beating that dead horse until the very last moment, stubbornly believing that if she just says “No Deal” enough times, enough MPs will vote aye. And by the time it finally becomes obvious to her that this doesn’t work, it will be too late to stop the process.
A long extension would require an MEP election. The window of opportunity to make that possible has to be running out soon. So, given that a long extension (with the possibility of soft Brexit) is dependent on a paralyzed government acting, the only options will actually soon be a Hard Brexit ,May’s deal, or no Brexit. And I just don’t see May or Parliament having the kind of moral courage that would be required to cancel Brexit.
It seems to me forcing through hard brexit would require more courage than (simply?) stepping back and saying no, we won’t go over the cliff at this present time, and we shall put our people first and work out what the hell we want, set our house in order.
I think cancelling Brexit would be the most common-sense move, followed by a legitimate and honest nationwide grand debat so people are actually listened to.
I’d fly back just to participate.
Mulitple Tory mp’s have said No Deal is very unlikely. I think they all know that if it happens, and lots of people get screwed (40%+ more for groceries, or else reducing tariffs and having the entire farming economy take a massive hit, etc), they all lose their jobs and we’re dunked into political mayhem anyways… I don’t think there’s much apetite for that, other than the rich cats who make their billions on their bets and retreat to their bunkers whilst the shit happens. So even though it feels likely, I doubt we get there other than so many misteps cause the fall by accident (incompetence).
I tend to agree with your political analysis, but the worry for me is that we’re now in an Article 50 extension which is almost certainly too short to resolve things (unless some miracle lines up enough votes for May’s deal). So all it takes is one member of the EU27 to get tired of delays or pissed off about something and it’s No Deal Brexit by default.
Hard Brexit doesn’t need to be forced through. It just happens.
So hard Brexit it is.
I personally think May wll pass her deal when the hard Brexiters fold.
Requires DUP support too. It is possible, but it’s never going to be anything but close. I’m not going to call it.
I’m not sure how good a source this is but…