This a somewhat ambiguously worded question, but, yes, the UK government did send an Article 50 notification, long before it had any fucking clue what sort of Brexit it wanted to or could deliver, and there’s no explicit mechanism for that to be revoked. Some people think it might be revocable, but ultimately that will be up for the ECJ to decide (or some political fudge which doesn’t involve a revocation).
Yes, and a revocation might not be possible, as @Ginger_Yellow says. But it might be. Consensus from commenting lawyer types seems to be that If it is, it would certainly have to be revoked in good faith - no stalling for time or “just kiddings!” or whatever.
More likely is some sort of messy fudge that’s sort of revoking but not, but why speculate? There is no will for this to happen, and less and less time.
Once Article 50 was invoked the UK / EU had 2 years to come up with some sort of arrangement for the future. It’s a bit of a shambles right now, and the deadline ends next March, so, either there’s an extension, negotiations turn right quick, or hard Brexit.
And from what I’ve understood, and this isn’t just a UK issue, EU / national decision making is a bit opaque. Sure, if you really want to, you can know where the policy that’s currently benefiting / harming you comes from, but it’s very easy to blame the bad stuff on the EU and take credit for the good stuff. Politicians all over the EU have done it. In the UK, voters actually believed them. :D
According to the EU the door is open and Brexit can be immediately reversed and will be even if the worst happens and Brexit actually goes ahead. Frankly we are lucky to have such understanding neighbours. its a shame May hasnt listened to them.
That article says that Brexit can be reversed before Britain leaves, and that Britain could reapply for membership after it leaves. But the two are not the same.
If Britain tried to reapply after leaving the EU, it very likely would be on less favorable terms than it now has. Britain won a lot of special concessions from the EU, which some of the other counties resented. It’s quite unlikely they could win them again.
Agreed. The time to reverse it is now before May negotiates even less than before…
No. Please no. In all the years it was always the UK which demanded special-this, special-that, delaying or even preventing important decisions. We’re fed up with this shit.
Some years ago I agreed with this, but I think that if the UK reapplied after exiting I would now be happy letting them keep the pound. My intra-EU frustration has shifted east, which is a much bigger problem than the UK ever was. Luckily come September Hungary will gave Article 7 triggered and the rule of (EU) law and values can be maintained.
UK hardly alone there.
France has so many concessions an special stuff it’s not even funny.
And Spain has hoovered up tonnes of EU money.
Interesting article worth reading.
Not sure how much I agree with it, and how much is amped for effect, this being a newspaper after all, but interesting nonetheless.
Edit: Also, Discord, your automatic image scaling has really failed you here.
That’s brilliant!
It’s really quite hard to understand what May is trying to achieve other than running out the clock. She’s spent all of her time negotiating within her own party to come up with a deal everyone knows the EU won’t agree to anyway. So what’s the game? Is it that there isn’t any good answer anyway, so she’s just flailing around? Is she playing brinksmanship, looking for the opportunity to revoke Article 50? Is she counting on Labour to save her by taking responsibility for the coming debacle? What is it?
Staying as PM, basically. If she moves too far, too fast, she creates political chaos and gets knifed or (worst of all from her perspective, and maybe ours) causes a GE. So she’s slowly, slowly, maneuvering into the best fudge she can get to fly with Europe.
I can see a few scenarios unfolding now:
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May fails to agree anything with the EU and a terrible, chaotic exit unfolds. Unlikely, I hope. It would be a logistical and legal crisis, and possibly an economic one.
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May agrees something with the EU that is too soft for the ERG (Tory eurosceptics), too hard for Labour (or at least Parliament), and it’s voted down. I’ve no idea what happens at that point: revoke Article 50? New referendum? GE? Chaotic exit? It’s basically a political crisis that could turn into the above set of crises.
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May agrees something with the EU that is enough for Labour (or really again, Parliament) to vote for. Assuming the EU doesn’t make serious concessions (why would it?) we leave with a very soft fudge type Brexit, losing a ton of influence on the regulations we’ll have to follow. But hey, we’re ‘out’. Also serious chance of Tory party split here.
May is aiming for the hardest possible version of (3) she can swing. The final unlisted outcome (very unlikely given the last few days events) is that there’s an internal Tory party coup by the eurosceptics, which likely leads to (1).
I’m hoping for 1.
I really want 17m to eat shit and fucking suffer.
We can crawl out from the wreckage and hopefully be more humble, less jingoistic and finally accepting of our place in the lower order.
Heard a new acronym during a Marketplace story on Brexit - BRINO, or Brexit In Name Only. As in, BRINO is causing all the hard Brexit people to abandon May’s government.
Brexit Existing As Name Only (BEANO) was much better but never caught on.
Best case scenario imho.
I would love it. But May has given zero indication she has any political courage or frankly that she knows what she is doing at all. The only good thing is she seems fractionally more intelligent than Corbyn, but its thin gruel.
How did Corbyn get to power seeing as he’s basically a Russian stooge?