I think that would all be fine. Davies was talking about a Canada plus plus deal a long time ago, and that’s certainly politically easier for May than anything else. Even now I’m not sure if she actually prefers a softer Brexit or has just been pushed that way by the Ireland issue (although I suspect the former). May’s disingenuousness has been a huge problem throughout the process.
Another major problem is the EU insistence on NI remaining part of the EFTA/Customs union and a customs border down the Irish sea. I don’t think Barnier understands how inflammatory this was.
I think this was stupid too. On the other hand, I think there’s a genuine attempt here to try to resolve the border question - the EU offering to allow NI a ‘special’ status in this way, despite being outside the EU, was a sincere act of problem solving. It’s just current context that has made this so inflammatory an issue.
I wonder - if the DUP had not been so important to propping up the Conservatives - what the December agreement would have looked like? Would we really be considering an Irish sea border on customs at this point? Or would Unionist terrorism have started to become a real danger?
Aren’t you guys ignoring Ireland’s wants on this? It’s no border or Ireland vetoes, Barnier didn’t have a choice. It’s for the UK to convince the Irish.
Yes, precisely. Ireland has a veto on any Brexit deal, and it was always the case that Ireland would have a veto. The people selling Brexit pretended that wasn’t the case. It isn’t the EU’s fault that Leave engaged in that kind of deception, and the EU has tried in good faith to come up with an alternative that would satisfy their citizens in Ireland.
This is synonymous with saying ‘If the British veto a deal, there will be a hard Brexit and they won’t get what they wanted anyway, so it is not a credible threat.’ You can make that statement about any negotiation position.
In any event, the EU has an obligation to protect the rights of Irish citizens, and they can hardly adopt a position in opposition to those rights just because the British want that. And, again, this was entirely predictable from the start. People actually predicted it from the start.
[quote=“Fifth_Fret, post:1676, topic:78214”]
I think this was stupid too. On the other hand, I think there’s a genuine attempt here to try to resolve the border question - the EU offering to allow NI a ‘special’ status in this way, despite being outside the EU, was a sincere act of problem solving. It’s just current context that has made this so inflammatory an issue.[/quote]
By “current context” you mean history of Northern Ireland since partition? :)
I don’t think any Conservative PM could agree to it. It’s a key question of sovereignty. The EU is very clear on this as it insists on the sanctity of its own customs union and regulatory regime!
Ireland doesn’t have a veto under A50. The Good Friday Agreement case is a bit stronger, but having said that it was clearly never intended to cover the scenario we find ourselves in. The UK certainly has a strong duty to implement extraordinary measures to minimize friction at the border.
EDIT: To elaborate, it’s absolutely the UK’s responsibility to come up with solutions for the NI border problem. However that doesn’t mean the EU is automatically justified in rejecting any solution and using the situation as leverage in the broader negotiation.
It doesn’t have an official A50 veto but Barnier and the EP (which does have a veto) has said there’ll be no agreement without Ireland’s consent. Same for Spain and Gibraltar.
Yes, of course. Trade deals with the EU require the consent of every country in the EU. They can’t stop the UK from leaving, but they all have a veto on the terms of the post-Brexit relationship.
Ireland does not have a veto on the withdrawal arrangement, which is what I thought we were discussing - in particular the current threat is that unless the UK agrees to the “backstop” permanently in legally binding language, there will be no transition period.
In that case maybe Barnier did have a choice and smartly decided to prioritize the EU member. Don’t see what’s stupid about it, even if it makes hard Brexit more likely, better that than telling Ireland and other similar countries that they don’t matter to the EU.
It’s not a threat. The (or at least a) backstop is part of the transition agreement (that we agreed to!). If there’s no legally binding language, there’s no transition period.
Ireland doesn’t have a legal veto*. It has a political veto. The UK government seems to have been gambling that it can pry the likes of Germany away from Ireland, but it hasn’t worked so far and I don’t see any particular reason why it would now. Ireland is the country with the most incentive out of the 27 to blink, and clearly it’s not intending to.
*It does have a legal veto over Article 50 extension, which may in practice be the same thing.
Well, sort of. I think this could have been pitched better, could have been worded better to avoid such inflammatory language, and the details could have been tweaked to make it more palatable to HMG - yes, even to a Tory PM. Whether that would have ever got it over the line… I don’t know. But as it stands, it looks like it damaged UK/EU trust in the negotiations, and that’s by far the biggest problem the proposal itself caused.
Isn’t that sort of talk how we got into this mess?
The EU isn’t rejecting any solution. It has proposed several. The backstop. Continued EU membership. EEA membership. EFTA membership. While it is certainly playing hardball, it’s hardly the EU’s fault that the UK’s red lines are mutually incompatible, and doubly so with the UK’s international commitments. Let’s not forget that not having a hard border in Ireland was a key UK demand at the start of the process, before they’d thought through the consequences. It’s not something that was imposed on the UK by Europe/Ireland.
It has rejected NI’s backstop solution applying to the entire UK (making much the same argument @Aceris just made - that this situation cannot be used as leverage for a ‘better deal’ or violation of red-lines).
