Brexit, aka, the UK Becomes a Clown Car of the Highest Order

You know, theory 1 is more likely than 2, because 2 is greatly overstating the case and treading into hyperbole. Thanks for the false choice, it’s exactly this kind of argument that does a disservice to your cause and makes me sympathize more with Corbyn.

The problem is we need a credible opposition to the Tories and Corbyn is not it. We definitely need more of a left leaning party but not too far like Corbyn. The way to win a general election in the UK is to appeal to those left of center and Corbyn is scaring those over to the Tories.

The libs are dead in the water after the alliance fiasco and Labour are a sinking ship the problem is that leaves us with 1 main party. It will also be interesting to see if UKIP now sinks after the Brexit vote as maybe people will feel they no longer need a party who’s main representation was immigration and leaving the EU.

At present it is a mess and certainly not good for UK politics or it’s people. In my voting lifetime I have voted for 4 parties, Tories, Labour, Liberals and Ukip depending on circumstance and local politics as well as national ones. I certainly don’t want to be restricted in competition and choice which is where we are at present.

You’re assuming there won’t be a backlash against the Tories themselves with or without cohesive opponents. People voted against immigration and leaving the EU, they’re being told now in definitive terms that existing immigration will not change and brexit by no means infers leaving the EU, all the while as the UK’s economy and house prices stagnate. In the wake of a slowed economy, conservative policies that are leaving existing services underfunded and education expensive etc will hit people ever the more harder. I can see the next five years continuing to highlight the failure of their policies and their wealth-bias and that is plenty of time for other parties to rally.

That said, I agree Corbyn isn’t the best cheerleader. It just doesn’t make him the devil hardliner incompetent he’s being painted as. He’s a socialist elected by a socialist-leaning majority of the party.

Even with a backlash there needs to be a credible choice. What you could get is a real drop off in voters or a real mish mash and spread across multiple parties. The fact the tories won the last general election and Labour didn’t or couldn’t make hay when they should have is worrying and under either Corbyn or Smith it will make similar in roads or lack of them.

At present even with the issues the tories have there seems to be a majority who are still closer in ideals to the tories than labour under Corbyn.

Labour need to realise they have 4 years to get their act together but they need to start it now because if the Tories do a good job in the future labour can kiss goodbye to any sort of power especially if the Tories do handle the Brexit well.

The problem is the election isn’t won by the party it’s won based on the population and letting a hardcore vote in their leader is fine but it won’t lead to any sort of election win.

Personally I would like to see Labour leaning lefter than they were under Blair and Milliband just not as far over as Corbyn. There is definitely room for a further left of center party but too far left and those left of center view it as going down the loony left side which could end up being a disaster for them even if 750k people chose them.

Funny though 5 million people voted for Ukip and it got them very little well 1 MP really.

They were told that before hand as well… didn’t stop them!

I went to college with Anne Applebaum. She’s not a crank or conspiracy theorist.

You mean Mrs. Sikorski?

NM, not gonna engage on this.

NM, not gonna engage on this.

She’s emotionally compromised when it comes to Russia, that’s all.

I don’t know anyone on a forum that’s emotionally compromised w/r/t racist bullshit.

Before the UK can Brexit, the EU wants 25 billion euros.

[quote]
Britain owes the European Union tens of billions of euros that Brussels will insist is paid out before the country leaves the 28-nation bloc, sources in Brussels have told Handelsblatt’s sister publication WirtschaftsWoche.

Britain is hardly the only country with outstanding payments. The European Union has for years been moving around a debt mountain totaling more than €200 billion, known as “Reste à liquider” (RAL). A high-ranking E.U. official said Britain’s portion amounts to €25 billion.

The European Commission is determined not to allow Britain to leave the European Union without paying. Some lawyers in the commission believe that non-payment would amount to a credit default on Britain’s part.[/quote]

hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahhahahahahaha omg hahahaha

I am a naive people and I have problems understanding even simple stuff other people think is obvious.

That news is weird to me.

Like… the UE don’t win nothing from unstabilizing UK. If some people owe you money, you are his best friend and you want to help him pay the money. When somebody owe you money, you want him to find a job and get his shit togueter.

So, you become more flexible, because if you cant get all your money now, oh well, you wait a bit more. It don’t look like EU is flexible here, so his position don’t make much sense.

Not if one of your goals is showing current members that leaving is an expensive and painful proposition. It the EU just lets the UK leave with little consequence, then there’s no disincentive for other countries to leave.

Yep, this. The goal here isn’t to squeeze money out of the UK. The goal here is to send out the legbreakers and convince everyone else that doing what the UK did will hurt.

Though there’s also a question of what happens, legally and practically, to the debt once the UK is outside the EU. I haven’t looked into it, but I imagine it would be an awful lot harder for the EU to claw back.

As long as Moody’s and friends count it as it a liability or worse a default it’s bad news for the bankers. And if the EU decides to impose punitive tariffs until the debt is paid, that’s their right too.

29 days later. Let me update this.

The Minister in charge of the Brexit department, David Davis, has still not moved from the position that there is no plan, there still isnt a plan, no one knows what they are doing, no one has the skills or experience to deal with this, and the entire legal apparatus of the UK is in disagreement on what is a completely new sector of constitutional law.

This weeks 2 stand out stories were:

Some of the biggest multinats have announced contingency leave plans of their own. Ford will close its factories, Goldman Sachs, JPM will relocate.

UK fruit and vegetable farming (and food security etc) will no longer continue, farmers will switch to cereals as pickers are entirely seasonal EU migrants.

Nothing will happen until Article 50 is invoked, no one wants to invoke it, nor know if they can. Some say vast swathes of our entire legislation need to be rewritten just to begin the process, which may or may not involve an election or vote in Parliament.

And the euro is now up to £.8644 following repeated bad news from the BoE and on the British economy (e.g. CIF reporting on recession in the construction industry earlier today).

Greece also elicited a huge amount of sympathy from Ireland, particularly the very vocal element that believed that Ireland had been badly maligned and mistreated by the EU for political purposes in the beginnings of the the recession.

Indeed, long after the Greek populace realised that Yanis was more interested in being a cool alternative rock star populost economist rather than a good one, he was attending events in Ireland and appearing on TV here.

But sure, Irish and Spanish hated the Greeks because misery loves company. Inconvenient things like reality, facts and truths have no place in ideological arguments after all.