Last month, Legal Eagle put this up. Since I know someone who is an election law scholar, I asked him if the analysis was on point, and she assured me that this is very sound.
It will set your minds at ease to watch; it’s informative, entertaining, and clearly presented:
I just feel you have too much faith in the institutions.
As do the terms of every member of Congress and every Senator in the group that was up for re-election. States that seek to nullify the election because Trump says so lose their representation in the House and perhaps in the Senate. All the elections for state legislatures, governors, attorneys general, etc, are similarly nullified. What state is going to do this to themselves because the guy who just got booted from office says so?
This just feels like a too-easy “Nuh-uh” argument.
It’s a 20 minute video. A TV show is lucky to get that much attention from me, and I watch those at night, in bed.
Yeah, again, you can certainly imagine a scenario where Trump becomes a dictator with the strength of the US military behind him.
I guess that’s basically the plot of the Star Wars prequels. Trump becomes Emperor, and dissolves the House, Senate, and Supreme Court through threat of force.
How he would manage that is anyone’s guess, but if you’re having a Case of the Mondays, you’re probably glossing over the details.
Anything short of that means there’s a new President on January 20th no matter what.
I get that, but you’re talking about the Constitution while others have some worries that we might not be big on the whole rule of law thing in this country anymore after watching Trump for three years. I hope you’re right and think you’re likely right but I A) think Trump is amoral and mentally ill and B) he has a substantial following that reminds me of a cult of fanatics. For me it’s not so much a worry that he’ll be successful in postponing/refusing to accept elections, just that he’ll try and it’ll lead to even more chaos.
Again you guys think too linearly, like a novelization of some Tom Clancy novel. If Trump makes a play to nullify elections it won’t be by fiat or the fist but the wobble of partisan politics, policies, judges and politicians.
And you don’t need wobble in every state or in every circumstance, just enough wobble in the right places to send the whole thing crashing down.
I’m not sure I follow.
Describe for me what this looks like, and how it would happen within the next 5 months.
Not being snarky. Want to understand how this would happen within that time frame.
What’s the size of that cult as a percentage of the adult population of the United States? And of the group of Trump voters in the US, how many are willing to participate in a revolution that overturns the constitution?
And how likely is the 43% of the US military who are minorities likely to willingly help lead an armed insurrection by white supremacist?
I mean, he’s not going to vacate elections until after the fact, step one. There might be forces, like certain foreign powers or electronic voting companies that work independently together to throw things, but its impossible to say if that happens, and or how much it matters.
If he “cancels elections” it’s going to be a declaration vacating the results from state X because of suspicion of Y, with the lead by the Fed the “collusion” (ie opportunist agreement) of whatever GOP officials at the state level have leverage over the issue. Not stopping elections from being held.
Trump isn’t going to declare a National Emergency and declare elections to be postponed.
And it won’t be definite, but it will create “wobble”, uncertainty, and a willingness to push tot GOP further toward direct interference.
I mean how that exactly play out really depends on the elections though.
And under what Constitutional power would he do this?
See above.
Thanks.
Obviously it’s not going to be direct. He would have to have someone like Barr declare that there was very suspicious and untrustworthy results of state A or B’s election. And the GOP members in that state feel empowered to agree.
That’s why i said “wobble”. Anyone who at any point thinks Trump Declares Elections and then it happens is wrong. But Trump hitting the elections hard with Federal officials? That’s the wobble. GOP state officials jumping on board? More wobble.
Like everything Trump does it’s all upside and no risk. If the wobble collapses the election and he’s back in power, bully for me! If he hits the results and the foundations hold, oh i was stolen by wicked corrupt Democrats! and then retired to his gold plated toilet throne.
Trump is a venal coward. He’s not going to risk his neck for power. But he’ll corrupt the system in every ways which have no clear legal recourse against him.
And this is where I’m at as well. But it’s not impossible for the Republicans to go full authoritarian and it’s dangerous to assume they can’t.
With another few years to erode our institutions he could probably find a slick way to do It. As things stand now, we’re probably okay but, in other countries where authoritarians were desperate to maintain power we’ve seen things like the jailing of political opponents, dissolving parliaments etc.
It’s unlikely but it’s not impossible. They are desperate to maintain power.
Well they won’t, and we get Civil War 2.0, which honestly looks like is ramping up right now.
Global Pandemic, tanking economy, 24% unemployment and rising, a popular uprising that’s burning cities and clashing with police, and leadership that’s completely incompetent and trying to fix it all with violence.
I swear I read all this before… a Lincoln-like President who tries to unify the country and is undermined at every step, followed by an incompetent authoritarian who only tries to maintain his power. Olympics canceled, clashes in the streets, people held without due process, the failure of the legal system to check the criminal government. All we need is Russia arming BLM and the Boogaloo Bois and it’s just like that old story from the early 2000s about the 2nd Civil War.
There’s a thing called Article Two. I’d explain it to you, but nobody talks about it. That’s the rule of Article Two.
That’s the article that allows DJT to do anything he wants, if I’m not mistaken.
Damn. That’s the first time I’ve seen a 100% plausible path for how Donald Trump holds onto power. The key is that some red states will follow his lead if he declares a state of emergency. Without all states voting, a Biden election will be seen as illegitimate by most Trump supporters. Genuinely scary.
I don’t think there is a shortage of guns around here. What are you talking about, tanks or something? I think someone might notice if a foreign power starts bringing those in. The only reason BLM is not heavily armed is they choose not to be. It’s not a militia. That’s white supremacy.
Between the defeatist videogame inspired stuff and the pom-pom waving for a civil unrest that will impact non-whites to degrees of magnitude more severely than it will white males…I think I’m stepping away for a bit.