Canadian Election Results 2006

The discussion started over in the “Canada is about to elect its GWB thread” but we’ve just completed a federal election, and I think that’s worthy of a new thread.

The prediction from the networks, at the moment, is a Conservative minority.

Discuss!

Welcome to your puppies!

Anne McLellan loses! Alberta is completely Tory blue.

Why is it that in Canada, our “Red States” are Blue?

The color scheme in the US was never really formalized, and some networks used to even switch colors each election cycle. I grew up usually watching NBC return coverage, so I got quite used their consistent Blue=Rep Red=Dem scheme. Somehow in 2000, all the networks were matched up in Red=Rep Blue=Dem scheme, and given the controversy and attention paid to that election, the scheme stuck. I heard from someone in the media that there had been an informal plan for all the networks to be consistant and to switch the scheme each cycle, but the all the discussion of Red vs. Blue surrounding the 2000 election meant that the scheme stuck.

I’m still pissed about that too.

I shall reiterate.

GOD FUCK.

I know this is really the best case outcome but the fact is that I won’t be able to accept it in a rational fashion.

What’ll be most fascinating is the ‘balance of power’. With the Conservatives at 123-124 right now, and the NDP at 29-31, the best case scenario would be for the C’s to end up with 124 and the NDP at 31 (majority, for those that don’t know, is 155 in our 308 seat house). Unfortunately, they are battling each other in BC. This probably means that it’ll be a case-by-case government with no stable coalition unless they are able to squeek out that 155 combined.

Interesting, indeed.

I just hope the conservative nutjobs come out of the woodwork as soon as possible.

An NDP-Conservative coalition? What on earth do those two parties have in common?

It’ll never happen.

I’ve been hearing news about a Liberal-NDP Coalition, which has historical precedent.

It would be very unusual, though. And not very recent in tradition. So I don’t think it’s likely.

Still, I really can’t see this minority lasting long. It’ll have to fall on a pretty popular measure, though. That’s how the Conservatives will want it.

Now where am I supposed to flee to if Canada becomes host to conservative nuttiness? Mexico? What’s wrong with you people?

Practically nothing (I wasn’t thinking in terms of an official coalition, just one that is more stable than a case-by-case basis). The NDP, though, ran on being the ‘third option’ to balance the Conservative’s and without the numbers adding up, there won’t even be that to go on, which was truly the only possible solution to having a government last. Now, the Bloc will have the balance, and we all know that neither the Conservatives nor the Liberals will want to team up with a separatist party even if only for the fact that the opposition would jump on it and portray them as betraying Canada.

I think some of those recounts may swing things a bit, but it’s damn close.

Martin’s giving the Liberal concession speech right now.

And he’s just announced his resignation as leader of the Liberals!

Wow.

He’s doing this very, very well. Too bad he wasn’t quite so flawless during the campaign :(

That was a good move. Next time, the Liberals can say they started changing the guard right after they lost.

Heh, it was a pretty cold embrace. The Conservative minority is actually smaller than the scandal-plagued Liberal minority elected in 2004.

None of the parties will be eager for another election soon but minority governments are notoriously shaky and the Conservatives have no natural allies in parliament. I’d expect another election by 2008 at the very latest.

For the Liberals, their goal will be finding a solid leader who can successfully distance him or herself from both the Chretien and Martin governments (and good luck on that). For the Conservatives, they have to prove they aren’t extremist nutjobs. If they can do that and govern well, their minority could turn into a majority with the next election, even if the timing of it is out of their hands.

Interesting and scary times. :)

So, basically, the election campaign that started in 2004 goes on. Man, what a bizarre night. Predicted, but still. Canada goes to the right, but also elects more left-wing NDP MPs to the House than it has for 20 years. Actually, I think the NDP are the only ones who actually won tonight.

–The Bloc now have a second credible opponent in Quebec and garnered well under the 50% of the total vote they wanted to boost sovereignty. They’re in trouble.

–The Liberals lost their status as the top party in the House, and their leader. They’re in limbo.

–And the Conservatives didn’t carry a majority, or even a viable minority, despite being handed this election by the RCMP announcement at the start of January, all of Martin’s goofiness, the aftermath of the sponsorship scandal, and a national desire for change. They also didn’t break through in Ontario like they’d hoped.

So who the hell knows where this goes from here. I think we can say with certainty that this government isn’t going to last long. If it makes it until the end of the year, I’ll be amazed. In that regard, I think the Liberals might have made a mistake is forcing Martin out tonight, because there is no recognizable heir apparent aside from maybe Belinda Stronach, who lacks credibility, to take the party into what will likely be a snap election.

Anyhow, I don’t know how the Tories can even form a minority government here. The numbers don’t work without the Bloc, and there’s no way the Tories can work with the NDP, anyhow. In some ways, I really, really wonder how the Governor-General can even allow Harper to form a government. How will he prove that he can actually govern? He could lose a vote of no-confidence within days of the House going into session.

Prediction time: I think we go one of two ways from here. 1. Harper finds an ally, makes nice for the next nine months or so, and convinces Canadians that he really is a moderate. He wins a majority the next time our. 2. The Liberals elect Belinda Stronach as leader and she demolishes Harper and the Conservatives by taking back Ontario and reversing Liberal reverses in Quebec. I think #2 is more likely, not because I’m a Stronach fan, but because the idea of a female leader would be a novelty, and because of the soft Conservative support demonstrated by the big turnout for the NDP and the continuing strength of the Liberals, even hampered by scandal and a weak leader.

There were rumours that Martin was not going to concede, but instead try to form a coalition with the NDP, but the numbers look rather shaky on that front. In any case, Martin did concede.

There is no clear and simple path for the Conservatives. The Bloc hold the balance of power and clearly aren’t party that the Conservatives (or any other party) want to engage in a formal alliance for th previously mentioned danger of being seen as selling out Canada.

What the Conservatives do have going for them is that there is the feeling that nobody wants to be headed into a thrid election in short order. They’ll need to work on less controversial iniatives such as a GST reduction.

Yep, Martin stepping down just handed Harper the stability he needed to last the year to 18 months that he wouldn’t have had otherwise. There’s no way the Liberals will want to go into another election without having a leader around for a while to rebuild their fortunes.

I’m curious to see which of the Conservative policies are let through and which are not by the other parties simply because no one wants another election. If I was a betting man, I’m sure I could lose a lot of money on this one.

No no no. Belinda Stronach has no fucking cred whatsoever. She’s a fence hopper, and she’s as bad as martin: Only in it for the power. See, I don’t think Martin was forced out. I think he was acting like a child who had his toy taken away; he was literally handed the role of prime minister without an election, and he probably felt that he deserved to keep it. Why, I don’t know. But he couldn’t stomach being opposition, so that’s why he stepped down.

Anyway, Stronach would be as much of a disaster as Martin. And come on, she was a conservative. You can’t put trust in someone like that. They aren’t in it for the good of the country, but the good of themselves.

What the liberals need is to dig someone up from the party who is charismatic and appears trustworthy. And yeah, good luck with that. Any news yet on when the liberal leadership race is going to happen? (I just woke up and I have to run to catch the metro in two minutes so I don’t have the ability to look just yet).

Anyway, I’m just praying for the crazy side of the conservatives to show as fast as possible.

The Conservatives won? If you guys are going to elect Godtards too, what’s Canada even FOR? Your country is dead to me. Canada is now worthless and weak. I hope you all freeze and die.

Try not to vote for the pod people next time. For now, enjoy your years of misrule.

Analysts (if you can believe them) think that there won’t be a new leader until sometime late summer. That’s really the only time that I’ve heard bandied about so far.

If I was to choose a Liberal leader from the old fold, I’d go with Tobin or McKenna. There are really only a few current Liberal MPs that could even be considered, but they need someone from outside to come in (even if it’s come back in) to result in some rejuvenation. It’ll do wonders to dispel that same-old guard dog that’s been hounding them for a while now.