China desperate to not have another failed potentially collapsing state on its border.
Seems like drawing this out for Russia is potentially going to be worse for them long term?
I think China is quite happy with making Russia more and more dependent on it, especially economically. Even if the war were to end tomorrow, it’s not like other countries are going to be eager to do business with them anytime soon.
That said, about the worst thing that could happen to China is if the Russian government is overthrown by a western-friendly one. It’s kind of the same situation with North Korea, except on a larger scale.
I don’t know, keeps the US and Europe busy giving away military stuff to the Ukrainians.
But more likely to leave an unstable Russia at the end, which is likely China’s biggest worry.
Maybe. The constant feeding of older equipment to Ukraine seems like to spur a modernization effort, and I suspect the modernization in Europe may also fuel modernization elsewhere in the world – including places on China’s borders (S. Korea, Japan, Taiwan, etc.) Drawing things out with Russia could well result in better-armed regional adversaries.
Russia threatening China with fair elections is hilarious.
Reportedly US commitments of arms deliveries to Taiwan are way behind schedule because of supplies being diverted to Ukraine (for the last few years, not just 2022).
I have this vision of China trying to supply Russia with weapons, where the Chinese officers and officials charged with overseeing the effort run into Russia’s endemic corruption and the “friction” involved in shipping stuff from China to Russia. I can imagine the Chinese, who at least from what I can tell, actually do try to crack down on corruption, pulling their hair out when a certain large proportion of anything the send to the Russians disappears into the black market, or when sloppy procedures and lax standards result in spoilage, wastage, or damage en route.
I can only imagine the mixed emotions on the part of China’s military leaders when considering shipping anything more sophisticated than 152mm shells to Russia.
I think you give the PLA too much credit. I suspect PLA is also endemically corrupted, just like the rest of the PRC government. The whole Xi anti-corruption charade is either a lie to consolidate power, or just naive to think local officials aren’t still skimming whenever and wherever they can.
I suspect Xi and those at the very top realise that PLA may well be a paper tiger just like the Russian military, because of endemic corruption over the years. There is simply no way for them to micromanage enough to make sure that planes and missiles etc. were properly assembled and go where they are supposed to go etc. etc. The rule of law is supposed to ensure these kind of small details are as they should. The US military-industrial complex may charge the taxpayers inflated price, but at least the planes and missiles work, because of the rule of law. Without the rule of law in PRC, I very much doubt the PLA can sustain a competent medium to long campaign to, e.g. successfully invade Taiwan.
Could be. Until there is more public info, though, I am erring on the side of caution. I mean, it isn’t a big leap for the PLA to be an order of magnitude better than the Russian military in terms of corruption, is it?
This is true – and it’s the response to this that should have China worried. Western arms manufacturers are stepping up production (particularly of munitions) in a way we haven’t seen for decades. The article posits that it may be too little too late, and I agree that it’ll be a challenge – can the industrial might of the United States and Europe meet the challenge? I’m actually optimistic – making stuff to blow up other stuff is one thing that Americans can do very well, and throwing money at such endeavors is a bipartisan issue.
I used to think they could meet the challenge if they have the will to do it, but that is the $64k question. I don’t know though. I just read a book about the Manhattan project the other week, and that had me wondering if it would be possible for the US to achieve something like that again.
Could they successfully push industry onto a war footing again, or would the corporate leaders of today resist, let alone the GOP and their followers.
So far.
A story I saw pop up somewhere last night:
I’m not sure what the current state of US News and World Report is, which seems to be where all other stories flow back to, but this would be interesting if true.
That is a pretty sweet patch though
Sorry for the hot take, but I think the CCP kind of sucks.