Chinese influence in regional politics has been significant and visible. Local governments are now taking action both subtly and more directly to address it. A small sample to be sure but my Taiwanese friends do not identify with Chinese - they have served in the military and will fight and die to defend Taiwan.
This is not the narrative being espoused in the Chinese propaganda which is rather equivalent to the pre-invasion text of Ukrainians all wanting to be Russian and Russia is there to liberate them, and Ukrainians would not fight and die for their country.
This may have been true a decade ago, but with the suppression of human rights in HK, the CCP’s draconian COVID policies, the aggressive “wolf warrior” foreign policy mentality” and the war in Ukraine has made this highly unlikely now. People in Taiwan have no reason to believe their life would be better under the CCP and actually may expect it to be worse than now. The central government is also helping Taiwan de-couple with it by blocking so many exports, forcing it to find other markets.
Of course people in Taiwan would rather keep the status quo. It’s access to Chinese markets has helped fuel its modern growth. But I’m not convinced that they would give up their democracy and their human rights just to boost their economy. This is doubly so for the younger generation that is culturally much further from mainland China than older people.
China tried to played the very long game with close economic/social ties, slowing gaining influence while the US eventually implodes , eventually with enough leverage, ROC will be forced /compelled to come to some peaceful resolution. Well, it got derailed during Trump’s term and quickly escalated with Biden.
XJP wishes to leave his mark in history like many before him but he aims high and wants to surpass or matched Mao\Deng’s legacies. Maintaining the status quo might not be enough, overtaking/“defeating” the US in someway or reclaiming Taiwan would definitely secure it.
Taking Taiwan by force is not ideal, XJP don’t want to be remembered as the leader who shed Chinese blood on both sides , but more than anything he don’t want to be the Leader who lost\gave up Taiwan.
XJP might bite if ROC dangled a path to peaceful solution, but not really giving up anything tangible, Something simple like acknowledging the legitimacy of the CCP, giving up claims over the rest if China etc. Its a Huge face win for Xi, but no self-serving Taiwan politician is going to do that.
XJP has more to lose in a direct Clash with the US. He probably gave up on Biden already and riding out his term in hope of someone more amiable
Have you not been reading any news about US politics in the last few years? One of the only bipartisan issues in US politics now is how to deal with China, with politicians on both sides accusing their rivals of being “soft” on China. The same thing is happening in many European countries like UK and Germany.
Also, let’s not forget that Trump tried his best to get a “deal” with Xi and didn’t say anything when the HK protests were going on. If anything, he was much more pro-China than Biden and only turned on Xi when he wouldn’t give him a political win.
I really doubt that Xi will be content with something symbolic like that. Just to clarify, is this what you want to see happen, as that is what I was trying to ask you?
Are you saying that in Xi’s perspective it is not ideal, or from your perspective it isn’t ideal? Because it sounds like the understatement of the century.
Among the many obstacles that China has created include demonstrating that it is not prepared to abide by international law standards such as UNCLOS. The claiming of virtually the entire South China Sea effectively by decree and chasing regional fishermen from these waters are part of the territorial expansion accompanied by demonstrations of force. The 9-dash line has created significant regional tensions. I feel China could do a lot better in its regional strategy but almost every time its excuse for the opposition it faces is not that it is trying to take over sea and land through force of arms, but a part of a vast conspiracy by the west.
By served in the military do you mean they’re regulars or Just the mandatory Military service?
Can’t comment on the regulars, But Taiwanese Mandatory Service period has been steadily and drastically reduced in Taiwan, the last few years it is something ridiculous like 4 months? Barely enough for basic training And they clearly know it as they recently announced an extension.
I’m sure our are samples skewed due to the different demographics. Anyway, unless one’s a real veteran, its best not to take such words at face value,
No doubt some Taiwanese are exactly that, especially the native aboriginals who fought fiercely against each other and all comers, the Dutch, the Ming , The Qing, the US, the Japanese and the KMT,
See, this is exactly the kind of obscure thing that I’m talking about though. Apparently one small retaliatory raid in which there is one (American) casualty is enough to be grouped together with the Dutch, Qing, Japanese, etc, forced occupation of the island. We’re all just 鬼子 anyway though, right?
Yes yes, anyone know knows anything about Taiwan history is aware of the sketchy history of the KMT. It’s not really relevant to this discussion though.
Just listing everyone they fought off the top of my head to empahasis they fought everyone
Am I missing some subtext?
Why do you leave out the Ming and the other tribes in the quote?
Considering China’s wide spread reality of corruption and the rich leaving the country, whether its wealth was legally obtained or not, it has not been a secret that some kind of persuasion is being used by the Chinese police to chase after dissidents. Sometimes these kind of operations are praised in the Chinese news with minimal details on the case, and it is known that China only has Extraction deals with a small number of western countries, so there were a lot of underground stuff. Now, for these service centers, given that in China the police department handles all the administrative duties such as personal ID, driver licenses and so on, would these people also be helping with chasing after dissidents too? Probably. I guess we can wait for the countries like Canada and Netherlands to investigate these claims.
You would think the Guardian would be all in favour of embarassing billionaires by criticising coercive autocracies, but apparently not. Apparently when Boris Johnson actually says a truth his audience doesn’t want to hear (I know, I was surprised as well) they don’t like that either.
If Boris Johnson represented HMG in any way then they could play the “undiplomatic” card, but he doesn’t.
It’s quite confusing that the Guardian seems to want to misdirect the conversation, when Xi’s translator says “that’s not how the way the conversation was conducted,” the subtitle shows “that’s not how the way diplomacy can work.” What does the Guardian want to achieve by twisting the words?
