Assuming the Ukrainians themselves go along with the plan. If it’s a limited sort of thing, all that happens is the EU makes noises but does nothing, and Moscow gains more influence as the most reliable trading partner, while the opposition is fragmented and unable to do much.
Because America’s invaded Iran. Wait, that’d actually be easier…
Fires burning in Kiev today.
I found it interesting that the Russians were chastising the EU for trying to put Ukraine within their “sphere of influence,” saying that no one should have spheres of influence. Ha. Moscow regards Ukraine as squarely within its sphere, so I guess they’re just annoyed really that the EU is horning in on what they see as their turf. I’m guessing that pretty much whatever happens it will rebound well for Russia. Either the Ukraine cracks down hard, and has little choice but to embrace Moscow, as the EU will distance itself, or things get really squirrely, and they have to appeal to the Russians for some sort of assistance or bail out.
Of course, these sorts of things can go in all sorts of directions once the box has been opened I suppose…
Exactly - they’re looking for a pretext, sadly. Russia is spouting off about attempted Coups, and NATO are (rightly) “concerned”.
Some fools think that if the EU does something here, that Russia will use it as an excuse to get more aggressive… Because they don’t realize that Russia doesn’t need an excuse to get more aggressive.
Of course they don’t. Anyone who seriously thinks that Russia abandoned roughly a millennium of imperial dreams when the Soviet Union collapsed displays a stunning lack of historical knowledge. Putin the quasi-tsar would love to cement his legacy by either pulling the Ukraine firmly into the Russian sphere or absorbing great chunks of it if disintegrates. Ethnic Russians make up roughly 20% of the Ukrainian population and there’s definitely a revanchist strain in Russian politics that would like to resorb them.
Look, America and Russia are not the same. But hey, fools!
Dave - Yes, but he isn’t operating in a vacuum either. Too heavy handed a response, absent an excuse, could cost him dearly with other projects like the customs union / “Eurasian Economic Community” with the (non-baltic) post-soviet states. (He’s already seen Moldova and Serbia turn to the EU rather than the Union State in good part because of his actions!). He’s directly up against the EU’s “Eastern Partnership”, and his cards are…not good.
There are sanctions being considered by the EU NOW - because of the clash of the 18th, and the deaths then. Previously, it would have been near-inexcusable in international law and would have played into Russia’s hands.
(Incidentally, support for the EU runs at about 70% in the 18-25 age group…across the country)
NPR interviewed a woman from a Carnegie think tank in Moscow this morning, about Russian views on the Ukraine situation. She was pretty blunt, and clearly was coming from the intellectual/liberal perspective (as she described it) but her analysis seemed pretty solid. She put it in context of Putin’s need to shore up his own personal power, and how any loss of influence or prestige in Ukraine would reflect badly on him. She noted that while younger/more liberal/intellectual Russians tended to side with the Western-leaning Ukrainians, the rest of Russia was more swayed traditional Russian interests and power in the area. While she didn’t fully discount the possibility of Russians intervening directly in Ukraine, she was pretty skeptical that Putin would do anything as crass as a Prague Spring type of thing. In her words, “there are many ways to rape Ukraine.” The NPR guy called her out on that language, but she reiterated it, which of course gives you a sense of where she’s coming from. But the gist of her analysis was that Moscow viewed Ukraine as an integral part of Russian influence and political hegemony in the region, and was willing to make sure it stayed that way. She did not that no one trusts the current leader of Ukraine, and that Putin might be quite willing to work with anyone else, as long as the basic facts of Russian influence and power stayed constant.
I imagine that ideally the Russians would like to keep Kiev on a leash without seriously pissing off the EU, if only for reasons of prestige and international image. It’s not like the EU can really do much to Russia, but Putin is pretty sensitive to PR sometimes.
What’s really worrying to me though is the way Ukraine is split. The protesters are calling for democracy, but if the country is truly split on irreconcilable lines, I’m not sure that’s going to solve anything. If it’s regional, maybe a split into two countries would be best. If it’s more generational, though, how do you deal with that, outside of simply holding on for a generation for one part of the population to croak?
Unfortunately, partition isn’t a solution enough folks consider- I think it would even work somewhat in Syria. Maybe something like 60 of Ukraine becomes independent, the other 40% gets integrated into Russia?
Partition generally can only work when there is a clear geographic line between the two viewpoints. I don’t know that this is the case for the Ukraine - my impression is that the divide is more a generational one than anything else.
Also, I’d note that the Ukraine is a huge breadbasket country. At the height of the CCCP Ukrainian exports fed the empire. With food prices rising, Putin really needs to make sure that market is (a) his for the asking and (b) can provide the food for less than it would take to buy it from the US or Europe. The Ukrainian steel foundries used to be a really big deal too; I don’t know how much that matters now.
I don’t think that would work – while many Ukrainians support the relationship with Russia, I don’t think many actually want to give up Ukrainian independence (although I am basing that purely on what I have heard from Ukrainian friends, so my sample size is neither valid nor reliable).
Time to send in the S.T.A.L.K.E.R.
No, it’s regional and even in a sense ethnic, or at least cultural and inherited. There are those who self-identify as Russians, more in the east, and those who self-identify as Ukrainians, more in the west. Russia of course has always had a strong interest in the Ukrainian Black Sea ports and now that interest has been doubled and redoubled by critical pipelines going through the region.
However, even if the lines were very clean, partition would be most unlikely to ever happen, I think. Even if it was internally acceptable (and I think it isn’t) Russia doesn’t just want part of the Ukraine, they want all of it.
I really wonder what we’re doing with this one. I don’t mind a fight with Moscow, but I’m not sure what we’re fighting for here. What greater agenda are we serving? Are we picking a fight for the sake of picking a fight? Will McCain get up to declare that we are all Ukrainians?
Ukraine is a red line for Moscow. They would never permit the EU to annex it. Beyond Kiev’s cultural significance there’s the issue of Sevastopol. The Russians aren’t about to surrender the home of the Black Sea Fleet.
Sure, we have interests in any geopolitical dispute, but we’re not actually doing much of anything right now. Why do you say we’re fighting for something?
The repeated public support for the demonstrators.
Yeah, well, that’s not fighting by US standards. There is no cost in supporting the protester side with words, because there’s nothing we can possibly say that will make the Russians more unhappy with us than they already are. Just posturing in front of a microphone costs us nothing. Even voting for a sanction that will be instantly vetoed is painless and free, and I doubt we actually go that far. So no, we’re not fighting or wasting any resources on the Ukraine at all, not compared to any of our more pressing diplomatic problems around the world, anyway. We spent a lot more time and energy on Libya than I think we ever will on the Ukraine.
I disagree, it can back states into a corner in terms of feeling they have to act. Diplomacy is about perceptions as much as reality.
So… the US has already slapped travel bans for the Ukranian leadership into place, the EU will have them by at the latest Monday. Plus confiscating any of their assets within the EU.
Automatic weapons are being used on protesters, and Russia is threatening to withhold aid unless there are further crackdowns.
The Mayor of Kiev (from Yanukovych’s own party) has stepped down, 10 of his MP’s are calling for EU/US mediation…there’s apparently building seizures by protesters across the country…
Spiral, spiral, spiral.
(Incidentally, I know nobody in the West’s really noticed thanks to the issues in the Ukraine, but Venezuela is going up in flames…)
Another case of a country getting pissed off about being unable to extend its sphere of influence…