1561

Yet any time we flex our muscle, we’re the bad guys.

You literally can’t win. If we went to Ukraine and it escalated, it would be our fault. If we do nothing, it’s still our fault.

The reality is it’s the EU’s fault and always has been. Europe hasn’t ever done anything without the US forcing them to do it. So we’re not bothering anymore. It’s a European problem, let them fix it. If they want to pretend to be a Big Boy, then they can do something. You can bet your ass the US, China and Russia have no issues doing things when they need to. If the EU wants to be anything other than a global punchline they need to get their shit together and solve a problem for once. But they wont and they know they wont. And most importantly Russia knows they wont.

1562

You only stopped killing each other because the US and Russia had nukes and made you, don’t pretend you’re some paragon of virtue while you hide behind NATO and the US’s arsenal. We literally took over the continent because we were both so sick of getting pulled into your bullshit over and over again.

You going to throw smart phones at them? Or fight their sea of armored vehicles with the few you bothered to make? And the Chinese can easily fill the gap since US businesses have been handing them over tech for profits for years now. Anything the US has China will have. They’ll steal it or just have it given to them as part of a labor deal. They can easily replace Europe or the US, but why bother? They save a ton on R&D by just letting us do all the hard work and getting the end result.

1563

Looks like the chickens are coming home to roost for Putin. The ruble falls to 80 per dollar, the emergency rate hike that their central bank put in place to staunch the bleeding had no effect, and they are looking at capital controls as the only way to save the economy.

Russia’s gross domestic product may shrink 4.5 percent to 4.7 percent next year if oil averages $60 a barrel under a “stress scenario,” the central bank said yesterday. Net capital outflow may reach $134 billion this year, more than double last year’s total.

1564

If you really want to try regime change in Russia- put the squeeze on that Russian money flowing out. and Putin will be dealt with by the oligarchs, or the oligarchs will fail- I put my money on the oligarchs in this scenario.

1565

I wish I could be happy about the Russian economy looking like it may be heading for collapse but I know it’s going to be the people that suffer, not Putin or the oligarchs. I feel bad for them.

1566

That’s the difficulty. In the abstract I do actively root for the Russian regime to collapse, and the very few who own the country (almost literally) to get squeezed out. If there was some way this could happen, I would unequivocally feel great about pushing that. But as you point out there are some 100+ million people that will actually suffer for it.

So while realpolitik says that a collapse of the Russian economy can be a good thing, humanitarian concerns show this will be dreadful. Argentine hyper inflation has nothing on the potential of this, purely for reasons of scale.

1567

Not just humanitarian concerns, but political/security ones as well. Russia with a healthy economy is a bully, but Russia with a failing economy and the prospect of the regime losing power could be a desperate bully. Nationalism has been the savior of Russia in crisis before, and what better way to gin up a nationalist fervor than a good old fashioned military crisis?

1568

The worse things get in Russia, up to a point, the better things are for Putin, because it’s all obviously the fault of the nefarious West. His control of the media and suppression of opposing voices means his popularity is still very high, especially in rural areas. “Liberasts” like the unfortunate Navalny are widely despised, even in Moscow and St. Petersburg.

1569

Russians are smart people. It’s time they take a look at where they could be tomorrow if Putin were removed from power and his awful policies reversed vs. the pit they’re spiraling into. The police are so corrupt and self-serving in that country it seems people should be able to make a foothold for change somewhere wihtout Putin’s influence crippling the locality.

I feel bad for Ukraine. Man that country was abused to hell and back by the Russian Soviets.

1570

You’ve seen what happens when a country ruled by a strongman suddenly loses its leader. It’s happened a lot recently, and rarely has the outcome been good. If Putin was removed from power tomorrow the Russian economy would go from bad to worse and the resulting power vacuum would be filled by whoever could bully out everyone else. Ordinary people would suffer more, for a slim prospect of any positive change. The best way I can see getting sustainable change is for Russians to have a choice between a Putin-like leader and a reformer and be so sick of Putin and those like him that they decide that this time they want to take a chance on the reformer.

Although actually, the way these things go, I would expect any reforming Russian leader to put on as much of a hardass front as Putin. I reckon you need a bit of misdirection and subtlety to change things in Russia, combined with a tough exterior.

1571

Putin will never allow any sort of credible opposition to appear. When someone makes the attempt, he trumps up a series of ridiculous charges for fines and imprisonment or else hounds them out of politics, and often completely out of Russia. It will only be after his death or retirement that any sort of reform becomes possible, unless the economy tanks so badly a revolution appears the only way out for the people at large.

1572

Yes. It seems that stopping large Russian companies, which are essentially state-owned, from refinancing in London has done a fine job.

1573

I totally disagree with this. We’re not talking about a 3rd world country like Egypt, but a European style of citizen who is educated and generally are not religious, zealot fundamentalists. They do have a government structure already wherein someone can step in and lead the country should Putin suddenly disappear. Dimitry Medvedev. He’s not an ex-Soviet KGB agent, has classical education, and I feel he befriended Putin and hoped to make some progressive changes, but has had to do nothing otherwise Putin would have him lynched.

At this point point Putin would rather his people starve and be decimated rather than admit he’s made a mistake or yield to Western demands.

1574

Medvedev is just a creation of Putin’s. He has little independent political existence of his own, and no one would vote for him or even acknowledge him without Putin’s mastery. Putin isn’t the kind of guy to choose a powerful or independent #2. Anyhow, Putin’s party, which is of course Medvedev’s as well, is a pervasively corrupt oligarchy, and it’s a true kleptocracy too because the FSB and bratva are pretty much intertwined at this point. Only an opposing party can bring about any real change there, and that won’t happen while Putin is around, because he doesn’t tolerate the existence of a legitimate opposition.

1575

It would be great if Russia was, in fact, as jpinard wishes. I am rather skeptical that it is, however. Being smart, or even smart and relatively conversant with European norms, is one thing. It doesn’t necessarily outweigh the virulent nationalism and national paranoia and sense of vulnerability that has characterized Russia for centuries. Beyond a smattering of intelligentsia in Moscow and St. Petersburg, I rather suspect the majority of Russians are willing to accept a lot of autocracy for practical things like security, prosperity, and national stature.

It’s certainly possible that an opposition could find fertile ground, and that it might well be a lot less confrontational than Putin has been. But as noted, there is precious little room for such opposition to arise right now. And any opposition that might arise in this climate is likely to still hold a lot of Putin’s basic ideas–about the only thing holding Russia together in some ways is its sense of Russian-ness, and that’s inherently nationanlistic.

1576

So is there any hope for the Ukraine? Or any kind of concessions coming out of Putin - or is it all downhill from here?

1577

If it wasn’t Putin in charge, I’d guess they’d eventually find a way to come up with some kind of deal that makes it look like they’re not giving in to the West in return for the removal of sanctions. Something that winds up with some symbolic stake in the insurgent territory, holding Crimea, and lets the rest go. But that would be common sense, and that’s not how they do things over there. Still, forging ties with North Korea is not going to help the Russian economy. I’d say the ruble crisis is due about equally to sanctions, the oil crash, and mismanagement, but underlying that is the problem that their exports are very narrow and dependent on conditions they can’t control very well. Oil, gas, diamonds, and after that, what? Kalashnikovs? I gather that almost all desirable consumer goods in the country are imported.

Anyhow, if Russia ignores outside pressure, they probably do have the ability to make Ukraine submit, but doing so for the sake of internal politics and letting Putin strut in front of his cronies seems both idiotic and likely.

1578

Heck, they imported a pretty significant chunk of their military components from, er, the Ukraine. Tanks, optics, jet engines…

In the mid term, though, maintaining a decent army is expensive (it’s only become good again relatively recently), and Putin’s going to struggle to find the funds to give away to his fighters in the Ukraine forever.

1579

Meanwhile, from his address last night:

Putin was asked whether he felt bad for talking about a “fifth column” in society last year and about a renewed crackdown against the political opposition. He was asked if he was able to distinguish between opposition to his rule and being a traitor.

“It’s very difficult to answer that. I’m being honest. Because the border between opposition and fifth column is very difficult to place,” he said.

For some, yes.

1580

“It’s very difficult to answer that. I’m being honest. Because the border between opposition and fifth column is very difficult to place,” he said.

“it’s difficult to answer, because on one hand it sounds bad to act like Stalin, but on the other hand, I want to act like Stalin.”