I think we are just expecting Russia to jump up and grab “that wonderful western way of doing things” because of the Soviet collapse, and such a thing isn’t in the cards. Ever. I don’t believe most Russians WANT a US-style democracy (such as it is). They, for whatever reason–cultural ingraining, difference in outlook, whatever–expect and desire a very autocratic system with what amounts to a King at the top. It might be an elected king, but still a king. Heavily authoritarian system, with a parliment that in most cases rubber-stamps the kings demands, and a political machine that keeps the trains running on time, keeps people from starving, and makes sure the borders are safe. In fact, I suspect that if you could get them to admit it, you’d find that a lot of US citizens would like something very similar–our version of democracy can be quite frightening and VERY slow to change things that need changing.
The big test for Russia will come in roughly 2 years (I don’t recall the exact dates) when Putin is obliged by their Constitution to step down. He recently appointed his perceived “successor” to an office that preps him to take over after being elected, and as noted above, the elections are going to be pretty much a mockery. But the real question is, when push comes to shove, will Putin step aside in favor of his anointed successor, or will he decide instead to get the Duma to change the Constitution to let him stay in power. If he tries that, we have a dictatorship (or something very close to that–oligarchy isn’t really the right word) on our hands. If he does move aside, even to become a powerful influence on successive leadership, then you have something that more closely resembles a democratic system, for all of its built-in authoritarianism.
Yet more poison cases involving Russia, this time 2 US employee’s working at the Embassy in Moscow. Not sure if it’s a murder attempt or not but it’s really bad timing in the wake of the Litvanenko incident.
Excellent post! I didn’t realize there is a term limit built into the Russia Constitution, it will be very interesting indeed to see whether Putin is willing to concede his throne or not when the time comes.
Are you including “unbelievable economic depression, impoverishment of huge portions of the country, and 20 year decline in male life expectancy” in your explanation of why they’re so happy with their authortarian leader who’s actually fixing some of it?
If the US suffered what the USSR went through in the 1990s I wouldn’t be so sanguine about how we’d respond. I honestly think we got lucky in the Great Depression over here.
With recent events, I thought about this old thread I started 15 years ago. I’m not saying I was right and others were wrong, frankly both sides of the discussion had merit, its just interesting to read the posts from 15 years ago about the subject.
Could we have another cold war with Russia that I was implying 15 yeas ago? Maybe, but we could also be witnessing the end of Soviet style regime’s in Russia, if things continue to go as badly as they have been for Russia. Russia really isn’t in any position to start another cold war, economically or militarily, that torch belongs to China.
Yes, but there are still many questions before it will happen. First scenario is if Putin somehow stays in charge after he losing in Ukraine, he will be forced to look to China for economic support. Meaning Russia will become a vassal state to China, more so then they already are today; So cold war with China pulling the strings. Another scenario is Putin is taken out of power and a pro-west government is put in place. It probably won’t be a democracy like we see if most of the west but something similar enough that the west would embrace the new Russia and China would loose control over Russia. This would mean Europe would be a stable region and China would stand mainly alone as the world’s “bad guy”.
Either way I think we’ll see the west shift away from doing business with countries like Russia and China,
Fully agree, I do think we’re going to see a new schism, primarily economic and informational as much as political. A bipolar world around the EU and China is likely.
Hopefully we’re prepared for this, and hopefully our weaknesses won’t bite us. I am worried about what will happen here domestically, hopefully Biden has an idea how to make this a patriotic war about American values of democracy and freedom.
The bigger challenge will be trying to oppose the PRC’s shenanigans while maintaining the standard of consumer goods pricing and availability to which we are addicted now.
The ‘schism’ is occurring much more quickly in the political than in the economic realm. China still imports and exports a huge amount to Western countries.
Relations between China and Australia have (arguably) irrecoverably broken down over the past two years, yet Australia’s exports to China continue to increase e.g. see:
I could see the growth of renewables in the next few decades making it easier for two trading blocs to emerge, but I am not convinced it will happen anytime soon unless USA and the EU announce a ban on all Russian energy.
I think the term “Cold War” needs to be defined a little better before we can agree or disagree on likelihood.
Will we have a 1950s-1980s “Cold War” with a globe-straddling superpower that’s a genuine rival to the United States of America both economically and ideologically?
Not with today’s Russia, no.
Russia is the 12th largest economy in the world. Frankly, that makes it sound even bigger than it really is. Because of the power law, that 12th place rating means Russia controls just 1.3% of global GDP. We’re seeing firsthand that an economic base that small isn’t actually capable of supporting a peer-level military in airpower, landpower and seapower, while also preserving a huge strategic nuclear force.
Is authoritarianism attractive? Putinism as a model has adherents, and it’s been a unpleasant surprise how attractive it’s proven to many Americans. But I lived through the latter parts of the Cold War, and Russia simply isn’t the same scale of threat as the USSR of the 1970s and early 1980s.
Now an axis led by China with Russia as a vassal, that’s a better model for a new Cold War as we understood it in the 20th century. But the flaw in that model is that China depends greatly on the world for trade and technology, which is hugely different from the old USSR lurking behind the Iron Curtain.
