You do realize that just a couple of days ago, several people were criticizing me for dumping on Boris for even mentioning “taking it on the chin” as a possible strategy? And now you’re basically saying that this is a good strategy.
Also, I’m unclear as to why you think this is a good strategy. We’ve seen what happens when the virus is allowed to grow uncontrolled - just look to Italy. Clamping down on this early is not without its problems - definitely. But we already knows what happens if we don’t - and that is health services stretched beyond capacity, and people dying. Covid-19 isn’t going to care one jot about British stiff upper lips.
But hey - it’s one way to get Brexit done, I guess, to have the rest of the world put travel bans to and from the UK in place. Unless the other big countries in Europe make similar choices.
Personally, this is one thing I’d be looking for in the coming days. I suspect/hope that most of Europe will be instituting similar measures in the coming days to Italy and the smaller countries, but I don’t follow the news there closely. But, interesting, in particularly, what actions Germany and France take.
JonRowe
2735
Exactly
When a large enough portion of hosts are immune, it has a hard time spreading and goes away
Oghier
2737
Thanks for that (and for all your posts here).
I look at that gender split, and I wonder if part of that is specific to China’s culture. Having been there a few times, I noted that Chinese men all seem to be smokers. I also noticed that almost none of the women smoke (at least in public). Given that so many of the deaths are from that country, I imagine that may be a factor.
Mr.GRIM
2738
wich is more dead than in every war in all of human history.
Rogan’s infectious disease expert pointed that out. Chinese men, particularly older ones, smoked like chimneys. They’ve been devastated by the virus. Chinese women aren’t big smokers, and their death toll is a lot lighter.
The problem for the US is that while we’ve largely minimized smoking, we’ve added a lot of other health problems that could be very problematic. #1. Obesity.
draxen
2740
I say this with absolute honesty. There is no partisanship in my view on this.
This strategy appears to be the one advised by our medical experts rather than being directed by political concerns (e.g. pushed by Boris + ilk). From what I’ve read it seems to be a sensible plan. It’s not “taking it on the chin” so much as timing the use of our more severe social distancing measures.
Absolutely nobody is estimating “5% of the world.” All the mortality rates you see bandied about are calculated as a percentage of the number infected, not the total population.
The current WHO estimated world-wide mortality rate for COVID-19 is 3.4% of people infected. This is almost surely an overestimate, and lots of places (like the USA) have failed to do any significant testing, so the “number of people infected” number in the denominator of the percentage is almost surely too low.
What percentage of the population will get infected? We don’t really know, as it’s a brand new virus. But it’s likely to be closer to 60-70% (per Merkel) than 100%.
So again, 5% of the world isn’t going to die, both because the virus will not infect 100% of the world’s population and because we know the mortality rate is under that (because the current rate is almost surely an overestimate.)
Mr.GRIM
2743
Oghier
2744
At the risk of sounding like an idiot (and keeping in mind, the closest I have to a medical degree is watching every season of ‘House’), here is the conclusion from a 2012 study, Impact of Obesity on Outcomes for Patients Hospitalized with Pneumonia
Although obesity is a growing health epidemic, it appears to have little impact on clinical outcomes and may reduce mortality for veterans hospitalized with pneumonia.
I obviously do not know enough to say whether what, if anything, that means for Coronovirus.
Not in the south, but I have no idea what it’s like in NY.
My church is large but not a “megachurch”—we don’t have multiple campuses or televised sermons or anything. We have about 1,000 members and regular attenders. We were outgrowing our old building, where we held two services each Sunday. We probably would’ve squeaked under the 500 limit in each service. But we’re temporarily meeting in a larger space while we rebuild, together with just one service on Sundays, using an older church building with capacity for ~800 in their sanctuary. We’d obviously blow past the cap now.
All that to say that personally, church is important enough to me that it’s the only large event I would consider still attending, but I’d abide by restrictions if they were enacted here. But on that latter point, I think I might be in the minority of church-goers in the Bible Belt. I think you’d get some serious pushback if you tried to tell people they couldn’t go to church together. But I don’t know what NY is like in that regard at all.
KevinC
2746
Those numbers may not be 50% but they terrify me.
I went to a church 2 weeks ago. They were trying to invite me to go again last week. AH NOOO
I’m officially worried. I just bleachinfected my bag and stuff once I got inside my home. I got little spray bottles and followed suggested CDC proportions
JonRowe
2748
Typically obesity has little to do with lung health.
Though obesity is a risk factor for hypertension and Diabetes, which have been significant comorbidities
Reemul
2749
That’s a poor post driven by your political opinions.
I thought it was an excellent presentation, the CSA and CMO were clear, concise and well spoken, their reasoning were strong and reasonable. NO one hid anything, 80% infection rates and the fact upwards of 10,000 already have it.
The reality is we are 4 weeks behind Italy, the reality is we will need to do all the things other countries need to do just not quite yet, it will be ineffective and people will stop doing it at a time when it would be more important than ever to be doing it.
Great to hear. I want able to listen because I had a work call.
Reemul
2751
Yeah I agree here, too many are driven by their political beliefs.
They gave clear reasons why they don’t believe stopping large outdoor gatherings or going to school and it was difficult to argue let alone agree with someone with a lot less understanding or facts as to they are correct.
still time will tell
wahoo
2752
Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine has been exemplary on this. Just closed OH Schools for 3 weeks with our 5 announced case.
They also said, it’s likely that 100,000 people in OH currently have the disease but aren’t tested. Banned gatherings of 100 > people. DeWine was on forefront shutting down NCAA and asking pro sports to ban fans.
But the daily press conference from our governor is pretty sobering and impressive. If you want to see a public official reacting very agressively its DeWine.
BTW, good news for those of you in California. After talking to Iger, Gov Newsome is keeping Disney Land open. It truly is the magic kingdom free of contamination.
Matt_W
2753
Sacramento County just announced that they’ve switched from a preventive strategy to mitigation. No more 14-day quarantines. If you’re sick, stay home and self-medicate. Don’t ask for further assistance until you’re having trouble breathing:
