jsnell
2814
Serious non-trick question: how many people do you think will be simultaneously infected during the peak in the UK, if they use this method of trying to time a single 2 week period of social distancing to just before the peak?
Diddums
2815
Hopefully that sends a clear sign to bakeries to stop putting cinnamon in perfectly good bread!
On an unrelated note, currently in this thread it looks like LSD is replying
Ok, you may now continue serious virus talk
KevinC
2817
I’m sorry to hear that. :(
I’ve read the opinions of literally dozens of experts on this subject, plus read many of the scientific papers the WHO and CDC have published on the situation (some of them are linked in this thread, if you feel like looking them up), and none of them agree with your two experts. But sure - go ahead and believe whatever your experts say - despite the undeniable fact that it flies directly counter to the recommendations of the WHO’s on social distancing.
Richard Horton, btw, is a Council member of the UK’s Academy of Medical Sciencies. Devi Sridhar is a Professor and the Chair of Global Public Health, Edinburgh University.
Models are not truth. And as any scientist (and I am one) will tell you, models are very often wrong. To give a very relevant example, the FHI (Healthcare Institute in Norway), admitted today that the models of the virus spread they had been working with until just a couple of weeks ago suggested that Norway would have approximately 100 infected cases before easter. We’re currently at 738, and will almost certainly shoot way past 1000 by the time easter rolls around. In short, their models missed by at least an order of magnitude.
Is the Norwegian government erring on the side of caution in the conclusions they’re drawing from their updated models? Perhaps - but the difference is, if they err on the side of caution, the cost is primarily economic. If they make a mistake to the other side, though, the cost is in thousands of lives and economic devastation.
Here’s Proffessor Sridhar’s conclusion, btw:
So yeah - it seems likely your government simply accepts that … quick back of the envelope calculation… ~50K people will die, based on the numbers they’re stating (I’m being generous here, assuming 10K infected = 10 fatalities, and that healthcare services can actually keep up - all of which seems highly unlikely).
draxen
2821
The UK government is about to come under considerable political pressure for their chosen strategy for the reasons you’ve outlined.
I offer the suggestion that many European governments will be under strong political pressure to enact strict lock down measures. Their populace will desire them to take decisive, visible action and this may affect their policy. Boris has an 80+ strong majority and 4 years grace. The UK government (currently) has the luxury to not have to bow to political pressure but can instead choose (what they believe to be) the most effective course of action. Perhaps other countries would like to adopt similar strategies but are unable to do so politically.
I’m not saying I believe this to be true it’s just something that occurred to me whilst I was reading your post.
I sincerely hope all our countries chosen strategies work effectively and that our loved ones come out of it unscathed. :(
Wyoming and Maine got their first cases today. That just leaves Idaho, Alabama, W Virginia, and Alaska.
nKoan
2823
Ug just had to cancel my daughters birthday party this weekend. It’s going to kill her, but I can’t in good conscience keep it going.
Vesper
2824
Just canceled all organized/open play events at my gaming store. Ugh!
It is delicious with some butter on it, people are missing out!
I can’t really grasp why the UK wants to try to have a single peak, when it’s reasonable to suppose such a peak will be larger than a series of smaller ones, and peak health care system capacity is actually the problem here. I would want to flatten that peak as much as I could by buying time by slowing the rate of transmission.
As do I. I have many friends in the UK, and I certainly wish for the very best for everyone here - no matter how different our opinions may be.
As of now my son is still scheduled to fly to Washington DC next week for a school field trip. I’m getting less excited about that. With that said, it might be safer there than here in Washington at this point.
We were planning my son’s birthday party this Saturday. The new restrictions on social gatherings (which went into effect ~5 hours ago) means that we would literally have to apply for permission to hold the birthday party - and would almost certainly get denied. So yeah - cancellation.
Just like every other metric by which you could measure us, we’ll finish in the bottom five in the nation.
This is a case study in food that should not be made. People won’t buy this shit even when they’re preparing to die.
Cherry pop tarts. Decaf. Cinnamon raisin bread. Flax cereal. Dunkin’ Donuts Harpoon beer. Skim milk (lol). Vegan cheese. Dark chocolate peanut butter cups. Actually all the vegan stuff is amply stocked!
You wanna hunker down with some Reese’s during the quarantine you’re SOL my friend, but if you crave dark chocolate sea salt peanut butter cups we got you covered.
