Coronavirus 2019

[draxen]

I should clarify that I don’t believe the UK strategy is better than the strategies other countries are taking. Only that it’s different and I hope it is as/or more effective.

[Tman]

@Menzo

Lots of info here.

Yes, this is the bible. Takes a solid 15-20 minutes to read it, but well worth it. Very detailed and backs up all the numbers.

[playingwithknives]

@scottagibson

I’m just trying to understand why you agree. That’s all.

Well we all know the tribal, unquestioning devotion to the idea the Brexiters/Johnson nationalists are infallible and all faults are to be wilfully ignored has resulted in a few thousand posts on its own thread so we shouldnt be so surprised.

[Thrag]

@draxen

@scottagibson

You take them at their word, then? You have faith that they are right?
You’re just assuming they are right?

Yes.

Equally, you have no proof that extreme isolation measures are effective over the long term.
What happens once the lock down is lifted?
The virus spreads again?

Quite possibly, but the time you bought by slowing the rate of infection early allows for building of testing capability and work towards a vaccine and treatment. It allows health systems to better prepare before they start to get slammed.

[Juan_Raigada]

@draxen

Equally, you have no proof that extreme isolation measures are effective over the long term.
What happens once the lock down is lifted?
The virus spreads again?

Except that according to the WHO extreme isolation measures are the only measures proved to stop the spread of the virus.

It is very unlikely this will spread again in China since they will lock down any city with the first cases now. Yes, you might get multiple flare outs and constant quarantining here and there, but the impact of isolated early measures won’t be as high.

Anyway. End of next week the UK will close schools most likely.

[draxen]

@Thrag

Quite possibly, but the time you bought by slowing the rate of infection early allows for building of testing capability and work towards a vaccine and treatment. It allows health systems to better prepare before they start to get slammed.

I can only speculate…

I think the reasoning is that it will take a long time for health services to ramp up their capacity and over time lock down measures lose their effectiveness.

[jsnell]

@scottagibson

And you’re not judging their reasoning, because you don’t know what it is, because you don’t know or understand their model.

We do know what the relevant parts of their model are. 5k infected right now, doubling once per week, expected peak in weeks 10-14, expected infection rate 80% of population, social isolation to be only used during the peak for a few weeks to extend it out. So back of the envelope, the number of new infections per week would be:

Week 1: 5k
Week 2: 10k
Week 3: 20k
Week 4: 40k
Week 5: 80k
Week 6: 160k
Week 7: 320k
Week 8: 640k
Week 9: 1.3M
Week 10: 2.5M
Week 11: 5M
Week 12: 5M
Week 13: 5M
Week 14: 5M

At that point the infection rate will be about 50%, and the rate of new infections will start going down naturally as herd immunity kicks in.

Unfortunately at week 14, you’re going to have 15-20 million people simultanously ill. I find it quite hard to believe that this is a good plan. And this seems to be the desired outcome of their model.

[draxen]

@playingwithknives

Well we all know the tribal, unquestioning devotion to the idea the Brexiters/Johnson nationalists are infallible and all faults are to be wilfully ignored has resulted in a few thousand posts on its own thread so we shouldnt be so surprised.

shrugs helplessly

What can you do?
Nobody knows what will happen for sure. We can only hope that the plan they’re enacting and the model it’s based on is valid.

[Juan_Raigada]

@draxen

I think the reasoning is that it will take a long time for health services to ramp up their capacity and over time lock down measures lose their effectiveness.

But they don’t. We’ve seen they work in China and we have empirical data they work. China is at less than 20 new cases per day now.

[draxen]

Again speculation…

@Juan_Raigada

But they don’t. We’ve seen they work in China and we have empirical data they work. China is at less than 20 new cases per day now.

… at the moment. It’s still early days yet.

[Juan_Raigada]

So let’s ignore the only effective data we have for an hypothetical!

The WHO experts think they’ll work and so does the CDC. I guess UK’s doctors are special…

[Fifth_Fret]

China is also a totalitarian state. I struggle to imagine the Chinese government actions being possible in the UK (for the most part I’m thankful of this).

[WhollySchmidt]

@lordkosc

@Wallapuctus

Cinnamon Raisin bread

It is delicious with some butter on it, people are missing out!

I support this.

[Penny_Dreadful]

All of them?

[Juan_Raigada]

@Fifth_Fret

China is also a totalitarian state. I struggle to imagine the Chinese government actions being possible in the UK (for the most part I’m thankful of this).

When you reach 1M infected I’m sure any action will be possible by a western democracy.

This is a crisis. If containment fails and we see 10% of the population in “hospitals” you are most likely under martial law already.

[scottagibson]

@draxen

Equally, you have no proof that extreme isolation measures are effective over the long term.

To be clear, you’re saying that we can’t know whether keeping infected people from coming into contact with uninfected people is efficacious in slowing the spread. I would have thought the effectiveness was rather obvious. Why do health care workers wear protective gear, if not to avoid coming into contact with the contagion? Why are infected patients isolated from uninfected people, if not to avoid spreading the contagion?

Never mind that we do know that it works, because it has been done many, many times before. It is the only thing that does work short of a vaccine.

[playingwithknives]

Speak out? Speak up? Not assume that a group of people have our best interests at heart, because they have demonstrated over the last few decades that they are rapacious disaster capitalists without regard for the lives of anyone other than themselves?

The only thing i really see forcing the Johnson and Trump government to do something is the realisation that they might lose power if they fuck up too much. All the big proactive actions undertaken so far in the US have been from private companies and organisations but the UK seems culturally unable to do anything other than baa when the shepherd tells us to.

[ShivaX]

@draxen

Equally, you have no proof that extreme isolation measures are effective over the long term.
What happens once the lock down is lifted?
The virus spreads again?

I’m sure it’s been linked before but this:

Is the goal. Like… everywhere.

[scottagibson]

@draxen

Nobody knows what will happen for sure.

In which case, you can’t know that the government’s plan is a good one, and you should probably not say that.

[draxen]

@scottagibson

To be clear, you’re saying that we can’t know whether keeping infected people from coming into contact with uninfected people is efficacious in slowing the spread. I would have thought the effectiveness was rather obvious. Why do health care workers wear protective gear, if not to avoid coming into contact with the contagion? Why are infected patients isolated from uninfected people, if not to avoid spreading the contagion?

No, that’s not what I mean at all.

I mean what happens *after the lock down restrictions are lifted. People cannot stay in the homes forever…