2914

If it’s that high, yeah, we’re in the shit. Hopefully it won’t be close to 10% of the population in hospital, and certainly not at any one time.

2915

I’m expressing my opinion on the plan - why is my opinion worth less than anyone elses?

2916

20% hospitalization rate and 50% reach. That’s why it’s important the reach is lower and/or spread.

2917

Among other things, there are empty beds available for those who get sick, and health care workers to attend them. That’s the idea: to slow the spread so as not to overwhelm the system. I thought you agreed with that, and were arguing that not isolating people was the best way to slow the spread?

2918

2919

Other people are making arguments for why the plan is bad, while you’re simply saying it is good because you trust the authors. Surely you see the difference?

2920

I’ve given my reasoning - not sure what else I can do.
It’s an interesting discussion though - one that I’m sure will continue for many months.

2921

The Emergency Powers (Defence) Act 1939 introduced state control and a police/military state much similar to China. The UK could lock the place down completely and as long as they waved a bunch of flags and put Dambusters on the telly the population could slip back into the old ways fairly easily.

2922

I know for my own mental health I am trying to find a place between keeping informed and getting caught up with the tidal wave of dread. Does speculating and critiquing the various world decisions help you vent and feel better?

This is not a criticism or anything just wondering (this might not be the best place for this post).

2923

Your reasoning is that you don’t know why they say this is the best plan, but you trust them. That’s it.

2924

Here’s the thing about that - schools are not actually closing down, at least not completely.

Both in Denmark and Norway, some schools and daycares will remain open to take care of the children of healthcare workers and other personnel critical to functioning society, as well as children with special needs. As the Danish minister pointed out - going to school is not dangerous - it is having large gatherings that are dangerous.

So this is not actually a problem - or at least it is not a problem that cannot be solved if the government wants to.

2925

Pretty much every country except Britain is betting that social isolation measures can damp the spread down so that the total infected will be a small fraction of the population.

Britain has decided beforehand that that won’t work (even though it seems to be working in South Korea at least, if you don’t trust the China numbers). They are assuming that a large fraction of the populace will be infected. They are essentially hoping that they can flatten out the peak enough that the mortality rate won’t leap because of an overwhelmed NHS.

Or maybe they are just looking to discredit the NHS, at the cost of some hundreds of thousands of lives.

I wonder how popular Johnson will be if Britain is in the throws of an epidemic that has petered out in most other countries, and all the other countries have travel restrictions on Britain.

2926

It’s not that different than therapy really.

And I’m not being snarky for the record.

2927

I’m curious at this point if it would be less disruptive to move all 65+ year olds into Florida or something and just quarantine them for a few months while the virus runs it’s course elsewhere .

2928

Snake Pliskin in:
Escape From Ft. Lauderdale

2929

Germany seems to believe that this will eventually saturate the population rather than peter out. But they’re planning on it happening over a longer period, and are in a much better starting position than the UK with regards to capacity. So unlike the UK’s plan, it’s not obviously homicidal.

2930

It’s honestly a good question. For myself when I’m afraid of something I realistically have little control over, I like to dive into the details and understand some of the minutiae. While that level of understanding doesn’t provide the illusion of control (in fact, quite the opposite), it helps remove any lingering existential dread.

2931

The Carousel solution, eh?

2932

I think this is their reasoning, yes. Add to that you only have a couple of weeks to have any serious measures apply (people need to go back to work or stop listening) and the strategy is at least consistent.

It might be wrong. We’ll see what happens. I don’t have an issue with a government listening to experts - if the experts are wrong, that’s an issue for the inquiry (probably involving the civil service) that will inevitably follow.

The USA is following a similar path it seems, except without any attempt to do anything or make any plans. I’m a lot more worried about that strategy.

2933

Hey we’re also throwing lots of money around. To people not involved with the virus.
Because reasons.