2934

What’s your source for 20% population (not case) hospital rates? That seems way higher than most estimates I’ve seen.

2935

20% was the initial numbers from China. 15% hospitalized, 5% urgent care.

The majority of people with Covid-19 can be managed at home. But among 44,000 cases in China, about 15% required hospitalization and 5% ended up in critical care. In Italy, the statistics so far are even more dismal: More than half of infected individuals require hospitalization and about 10% need treatment in the ICU.

Italy seems to indicate that’s conservative.

2936

Personally, no. I do find that keeping informed about what is going on around the world and reading up on what is happening (I particularly enjoy when someone posts a new paper from the CDC, WHO) is reassuring.

Or basically, what @Dan_Theman says.

2937

No, the US is doing the social isolation thing, just rather haphazardly-- schools, sporting and public events are being canceled all over the country wherever there have been multiple cases detected. We’re trying to push down R0 without relying on herd immunity.

2938

We appear to rely on governors and mayors for public health policy. The results may differ by location, and the differences may be vast. For your personal survival, the most important person may be your city/ state health commissioner and the executive to whom they report.

Heck, it may be like 1918 in that sense, too. Some cities took drastic action soon and came through OK. Others did little, and they ended up with corpses stacked like cordwood.

2939

2940

We have 50 different states and responses. Alabama has just started testing on March 5. They have tested… 20 as of last thursday. According to the CDC map Alabama has 0 cases. Right.

It is ridiculous the Park-That-Shall-Not-Be-Named is staying open.

2941

Seems major

2942

Seattle closing schools for 6 weeks is a fucking huge deal. There are loads of people who work in industries where their presence is required (e.g. nurses) who will now have to take time off to chill at home with their kids. WTF are people supposed to do for 6 weeks? Is there wage loss relief in place? Protections against job loss due to lost time?

2943

We can’t afford that. hides behind $1.5 trillion for the markets

2944

I took a little class on the census at work. It’s my understanding that this year there will be a variety of ways to respond to the census, and you don’t necessarily need to speak face to face with some plague-carrying census worker.

https://2020census.gov/en

2945

Right. It’s just fucking flailing. No one has an actual plan that will mitigate the economic effects of what we’re doing, we’re summoning a hurricane to fight a forest fire.

2946

Thank god, I’ve been hounding my mother in law to stay home from church as she is recovering from chemo and has hypertension and other risk factors. Now I can stop calling and arguing with her every day!

2947

My University has its first case. An employee who works in the student center… Which isn’t ideal

2948

Well, hopefully that will bring around some of my Mormon family members that this isn’t just a liberal hoax.

2949

Mitigation would be assuring everyone that things are well in hand.
But Trump is incapable of it. So they’re gonna throw money. Not at the disease, though, that’d be crazy.

2950

We’re economically fucked either way. The only difference is whether the death toll is in the millions or in the tens/hundreds of thousands.

2951

At this point? Probably.

It would take a Reagan or Obama to pull markets off the brink (as well as some real progress probably). Trump can’t get through a press conference without rambling like a degranged homeless dude.

2952

Yep. Four to six weeks of no salary for how many million Americans means… what? It will break so many people. Even without the massive death toll we all expect, this is potentially cataclysmic.

2953

20% case hospital rate coupled with 5’% population reach makes 10& of population hospitalized.