Aceris
3154
I think once people are aware you can contain it by rapidly responding to new cases (that seems to be the China plan). But you need to either quarantine or test literally everyone from outside the country. Effectively, the choices I see are build herd immunity, or “build a wall”.
I am concerned that if this thing mutates like flu even herd immunity will be less helpful, but I’m way out of my depth on that - if anyone has any insight that would be helpful.
MikeJ
3155
How does the prospect of improved treatments, medications and vaccines play into the model? Clearly if we had a vaccine now, we could build herd immunity that way, right?
I don’t think it is. As I said (and as thread author says) these are very simple models.
Edit: if you just meant, what would happen? Then yeah. You basically increase recovered total artificially with a vaccine. That would be ideal (hence importance of flu shots in controlling that).
I think that’s the gamble. A wall is obviously insanely expensive. But what if it’s the only way? Or the costs of herd immunity are even more insanely expensive?
And so the fear the(se) experts have it wrong, etc.
Idaho governor giving an address this morning in a few hours. Announcing our first case? No cases yet, just calming everyone down? Who knows!
draxen
3159
Why are these statements mutually conclusive?
You seem to want to play some kind of point scoring. We’re in a crisis - I have no interest in sparring with you. It’s not helpful in this situation. Unless you have something positive to contribute I shall ignore you.
Aceris
3160
Improved treatments shorten hospital stays, reduce the fatality rate, but don’t really change the disease progression through the population.
I am frustrated that we dont yet have any understanding of whether remesdivir is at all effective.
vyshka
3161
Has Mulvaney been seen in public since he was fired?
I think there is a logic to social distancing policy which also builds herd immunity, but I don’t see evidence of this so far (or, that it is legal in democracies). It feels like what would be necessary is a strict cordon sanitaire for anyone over 50/60, aggressive mixing amongst children (who are also isolated with all other children for a month, sharing the virus), and mild social distancing among adults. In other words, nearly impossible to engineer.
To me, it seems that the UK have decided to follow the US’s inaction response, relying instead on local governments, private enterprise and other private entities to make the hard decision about limiting public gatherings, travel, etc. And it seems likely that they have done so for the same reasons: basic political philosophy, leadership stupidity and an absence of integrity and moral courage. It’s hardly surprising to see a split in which the US and the UK responses are exactly the opposite of everyone else’s.
Maybe this should also go into the apologies thread
Hard right hypercapitalist governments have a duty of care to shareholders and themselves, not everyone. All we can judge them on are their previous actions. We know they are disaster capitalists and vulture capitalists, they have been absolutely open and transparent about their ideologies. We shouldn’t be expecting them to show any spirit of collectivism or socialism. Why would politicians who embrace eugenicism be expected to show values of care, compassion and respect for human life?
“Old people dying is good for the economy”
The cull is going to be profitable.
This is…something else.
Link is to an LA Times story which says the Trump admin has blocked states from using Medicaid funding to respond to coronavirus.
A lot of red rose twitter handles happily using the term “Boomer Remover” on twitter this morning…
draxen
3169
That thread is pretty awesome - thanks for sharing :)
They have decided to kill as many as possible as quickly as possible to “get it over with”
Tinfoil territory is now real.
The flights were left open so the mega rich could easily fuck off to their bunkers in private islands.
Teiman
3171
I dont think the strategy to let people die will work, but I am some nobody on the internet so I will not voice why this moment.
What USA have for himself is a lot. Economy, society, position in the world. The USA don’t need to dig mass graves for people, is unnecesary to do it this way.
Pelosi thought a deal was in place or close.
Then Trump threw a tantrum about it.
It really does feel a bit like the GOP wants bunches of us to die.
