Not sure if this has been posted before, but it is a pretty comprehensive list of recommendations to Congress on legislation to ensure people can get tested & treated, to ensure health insurance companies cover testing and treatment, to promote Medicaid expansion in states that didn’t take the ACA expansion before, to increase Medicaid funding to states, etc.
https://www.healthaffairs.org/do/10.1377/hblog20200312.363618/full/
Yes. It doesn’t really say anything that wasn’t already clear, but it a nice way to just lay out the insanity of the entire thing. Or maybe a better word than insanity is hubris.
What the UK government is essentially doing (although they don’t dare say it loud is). Willingly kill ~250K-500K people (i.e., the casualties who will follow from the infection rates that they require). In doing so, they callously sacrifice everyone who would have survived this pandemic if a second wave is averted. They also sacrifice everyone who might have survived from improved treatments at a latter date. And on top of that, they gamble with the lives of everyone who will die unnecessarily if the NHS is overwhelmed. And no - this is not at all similar to the gambles (most) of the rest of World is making. Because the UK is basically making two assumptions, neither of which have conclusive scientific evidence:
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That they can dial up and down the infection rate easily, in order to control how many people enter the hospital service. An assumption that is being made at the same time as they are scaling back testing, which was already lackluster to begin with, meaning that the data on which to make those decisions is going to be worse than it would have. Ask the Italians how easy this thing is to control.
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That herd immunity is actually a thing for this virus. As the WHO has pointed out, at this point we don’t know whether having had the virus once will protect you against a potential second wave infection in winter.
I sincerely wish that this works out for the best for you. But there is no justification for this kind of strategy, other than putting money above the lives of your people.
Your second link is from a study based on a cruise ship, and was based on 600 people. Give me them big number studies please.
That would be the China study based of 56k infected showing 1.2% asymptomatic cases.
Again, the WHO is clearly saying there are few asymptomatic cases.
From the European CDC, from 2 days ago: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/RRA-sixth-update-Outbreak-of-novel-coronavirus-disease-2019-COVID-19.pdf
Even if they are underestimating, we will likely be at less than 20% true asymptomatic cases when the dust settles.
The mortality rate is not going to magically lower due to 90% asymptomatic cases. We are going to see 2-3% in good conditions and 5%+ where health systems collapse. Korea is not a good data point for mortality because over half of their infected is young due to the very weird way the infection proceeded there.
In a couple of months Boris will be hailed as the new Churchill or, I dunno, run out of town as a villain?
It’s certainly an heroic option, other leaders will be able to point to previous examples and go “We did what they did, not my fault it didn’t work”, Boris, if it doesn’t work, less so. Still, makes “sense”, Brexit UK is not about doing stuff in the way other people do, I hope it doesn’t bring a higher than necessary bodycount with it.
Interesting times suck.
Wow, so now is just 1-3%, might as well just say 0% right? 7% is wildly inaccurate.
Why not? It’s not an absolute - it’s not a movie. Just because there’s gonna be a few morons violating quarantine, as long as the great masses follow things properly it will cut down contacts. It’s all a matter of hundreds of dice rolls a day per person.
The numbers are under-reported, and will vary depending on testing regimes, so the real rate will be higher once dust settles, it just won’t be anywhere near 50%, not to speak of the 90% people are touting.
Fair enough… thanks for the links and info!
The takeaway is that the mortality rate is what it is and it’s not going to wildly change due to a huge influx of asymptomatic cases.
True but electricity use will spike.
In a similar boat. Jet2 has cancelled flights to where I am. Thankfully Easy jet hasn’t, yet.
Well if I get stranded here, I’m next to the beach.😀
In my case I’ve already decided not to go. Just trying for the lowest cost cancel I can get.
Thanks for the links, @Juan_Raigada. Good info.
To inject a little positive into this, while we may not see the mortality rate lowered due to asymptomatic cases, we will probably see the mortality rate lower due to cases with mild symptoms and (assuming we contain it), better treatment. At least, that seems to be the operating assumptions of nearly all the medical professionals right now. E.g., looking through the numbers in the Danish report, you can see that they estimate that out of everyone who is infected with CoVid-19, only 10% will actually end up in contact with the health services, and it is within that group that the mortality rate is going to be high. Their effective estimated mortality rate (for everyone infected) is a more modest 0,3 - 1,0%. This number is based on the premise that health care services are not overwhelmed as well as the fact that the standard of care has taken strides since the outbreak began (something also mentioned in the Chinese report - outside Wuhan, the mortality rate has only been 0,7%).
I was going to go to my train club today and run some trains and hang out. Everyone I would see today, I saw on Thursday so our infection rate is about the same. There would only likely be 3-4 of us in the place.
But it’s an hour ride and I decided I am fighting something so I am staying home. It feels like allergies. I don’t have a fever, I am stuffed up (the club is dusty and throws my allergies off for a few days anyway), and I have a headache. The headache is nothing new. I usually wake up with one as a side effect of some meds. A couple cups (pots) of coffee usually sets me right.
In a normal world, I’d have still gone up today. But, I am deciding at the least to do the whole social distancing thing and work on my trains and play some video games.
magnet
3690
About that…
But here’s the catch: Monthly payments are not actually going to decrease. Instead, people will pay the same amount they are currently paying. The difference is that the full sum will go toward the principal on their loans
So in the short term, at least, this won’t help at all.
Yeah, I’ve bowed out of my usual Saturday morning breakfast-and-cards group. It just seems like an unnecessary risk in both directions.
Heh. I have pretty much the same, except that I am currently taking an allergy vaccine treatment (started last year), so I - hope - I know where my symptoms come from. At least I’ve previously has some mild allergy symptoms, which causes me to cough occasionally, after taking a shot. I’ve gotten used to the side-eye, but very happy that we’re now working from home.
new new conservative take?
Thoughts and Prayers vs Corona Virus.
