SlyFrog
3715
Again, it would be a shame if someone hurt Mr. Colvin. Or if his house caught fire. With him in it.
Teiman
3716
The governement here take things seriuslly… like all other politicians.
X0 infected means taking measure X0
X1 infected means taking measure X1
X2 infected means taking measure X2
instead of
X0 infected means taking measure X1
X1 infected means taking measure X10
X2 infected means taking measure X11
so the number of infected grown because the measures lag behind the virus, the virus is ahead, the response is… herr… responsive, instead of reactive.
I have criticiced the population. They have a combination of panic and not taking things seriusly. My own family take things seriusly, but “break” quarantine all the time. People need to see something very ugly to stay home, and maybe then will be really scary. Weather is not helping, the weather is absolutelly glorious, so being outside just feel good after the long winter.
C’mon God. If you’re out there, give us a sign.
SlyFrog
3718
My kid coming home from a University kind of does make me think about the social distancing thing too. Like how realistic it really is. He has obviously been exposed to hundreds if not thousands of people in the last few weeks in classes, dining halls, etc., unlike me (I’m home all day, and have very limited exposure to people).
So what am I supposed to do here, tell my kid to just not come home? It’s kind of ridiculous. It’s equally hard to get young adults (I’ve found) to stop doing things with friends, etc.
I get a dry, persistent cough every winter. It’s not unusual. I was foolish in my 20s and got bronchitis a couple of times, and ever since then, the cough will develop and won’t go away for weeks. To be clear: I don’t have bronchitis anymore, but I cough a lot. I have no fever or any other symptoms, it’s just a cough.
I was worried about catching COVID in this situation, so I talked to my nurse practitioner yesterday. We went over health history and symptoms and she said I shouldn’t worry. Dry cough doesn’t seem to be a complication with COVID.
She did give me a fresh albuterol prescription. It was used in the past to manage the coughing fits. Going to the pharmacy was weird. A lot of older people in masks, and everyone was standing 3-4 steps from one another, so the line sort of stretched a lot longer than usual.
The checkout process requires you to use a pinpad, though. They put a giant bottle of hand sanitizer next to it.
"But I’m not looking to be in a situation where I make the front page of the news for being that guy who hoarded 20,000 bottles of sanitizer that I’m selling for 20 times what they cost me.”
OOPSSSSS
That dude is getting jacked. Location, name, and picture of his stockpile.
Imagine if this had happened pre-smartphone and streaming. We’d be so screwed. Kids have no idea how good they have it today. They can literally stay in bed and have access to the world’s TV shows, movies, music, and books in a handheld device. I’ve been having fun playing online. But, yeah, I imagine the kids will have fun for a few days, but then the realization kicks in that there’s no trips to the movies or the mall or anywhere, really.
You must have a very dire opinion of our public health specialists if you think they make such basic mistakes. That reported cases lag is obvious and the relevant experts do know much more than you or me about exponential growth and epidemics. Heck, the government clearly said we’ll be looking at 10k cases by Wednesday next week at the latest, so it’s not that they don’t acknowledge it either.
In general, you take into account the delay and the exponential growth to take measures so you avoid overburdening the system. The problem was that last Monday cases jumped far faster than the usual. We went from an stable 25% increase day-over-day to a 90% increase in a single day. That moved the needle and we shifted to catch-up, but still the measures are mostly in place in a reasonable timeframe (probably two days later than ideal or so due to said spike).
Some numbers: ICU units in Madrid (hardest hit region, also were I live), are at 28% occupancy by coronavirus cases. Since we will have some surge capacity in the coming days we might be able to avoid total saturation (it’s going to be tight, but you can move patients to other regions if needed, nationally only 5% of ICU units are used for coronavirus cases as of today), specially if the measures start showing signs of stopping the growth (which is why looking at Italy is so important). Take into account the two days we are off due to last Monday’s spike and we would have been in a good position measure-wise without that spike.
Janster
3724
My friend who works in the health industry says we’re facing real challenges here, that might have profound effects on our society, this isn’t over for months.
In Italy already patients over 60 won’t receive treatment, and it could get worse…the death toll will be massive everyone will know someone who has died.
The time for real measures is now, and the ones claiming this is just a lot of noise, should know that we’re just at the start of this shit…
You can see that looking at the best case scenario: a million people, assuming 1% need a bed for a week, that’s 10,000 bed weeks.
Assuming 1000 beds per million people is available, we’ll need 10 weeks of everything running at this level.
Those aren’t meant to be accurate, just illustrative of some optimistic numbers (we don’t have so many beds, and it will be peaking at over 1% needing a bed at once, etc.) - we’re going to be in this for many months. There’s a reason UK has cancelled elections until next year, and schools are going to be closed for months.
The thing is that in China and South Korea the infection rate was stopped way before it got to those numbers. I think assuming uncontrolled spread is making a disservice to containment efforts.
The problem is that we don’t have anywhere close that number. Sure, we have a million ICU beds in the US, but before all this happened, on any given day, the majority of them are already occupied by sick people.
I did try to make that clear, but I guess it doesn’t hurt to repeat it.
UK and Ireland are now TRAVEL BANNED to the US.
Oy. We have a satellite campus in Dublin, where during spring semester in particular we have a fair number of students studying. I guess they’re sort of locked in place now.
First, the Us has about 95k ICU beds, not a million.
What you do is you stop all non critical surgery to free space. You can get a lot of free beds that way. Not all of them, of course, but a significant number.
Also, expect a surge in ICU beds available.
[removed because i can’t read]
Oscar just seems to be a shitty Obamacare site, it’s a testing-site LOCATOR, not an actual testing site.
Menzo
3734
McConnell on the sidelines again. I wonder if he cares.
