espressojim types faster than me and brings more expertise to the subject so if I had waited a bit I could have said, “Yes, what he said.” :)
We don’t even need to be as strict as China! Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Korea!
Carto
3797
Core strength exercises (planks, bird-dogs, YTIWs) can be done without weights. Bodyweight squats also work.
Tman
3798
Interesting enough, I was pretty pissed that something like this would be published on Medium to be honest - as they’ve always had good authors / articles, so I went there and I can only find this article if you search on the author. It’s not highlighted, or mentioned anywhere that I can find, so they are trying to bury it, it seems.
Too bad because that other article was so damn good, the site can have cache but they need to do a better job of policing it.
I’m just kinda furious. That’s bad science that can fool people into thinking that our current efforts at mitigation are a mistake. The last thing i want is for people to say “Social distancing will never work, so I might as well go out and have fun!”
You’re being both hysterical, and ridiculous.
Agreed. @Teiman, it was never about saving everyone on an individual level. It’s about minimizing loss of life on a societal level. My complaint about those diagrams is that they never should have shown the entirety of the curve under health capacity. That’s misleading. It is a question of how much of the curve surpasses capacity. It isn’t an all/none proposition.
Italy isn’t containing; it’s mitigating. And the UK is almost certainly bringing in similar measures soon, because they’ve said they will.
draxen
3803
From my perspective we’ve now reached a point where people are starting to panic. I consider all information not from trustworthy, official sources suspect at this point - and even then will take them with a pinch of salt. We’re seeing the beginning of a COVID-19 information pandemic as well.
You know what? I think people feeling a little panic is far better than people acting like this is a demoncratic hoax.
Teiman
3805
Well, I agree with that. I think what we have to do and are doing, is mitigation.
Quaro
3806
A lot can change in even 4 to 6 weeks of delay. There are numerous clinical trials on different treatment options than end in late April. And many more the next month. Many of these are existing drugs that could be used immediately.
Teiman
3807
I apologize for posting the article. I trough it had enough merit.
Hey! You shouldn’t feel bad. The person who wrote the article and pretended to be an expert should feel bad. You’re just trying to understand a very complex situation, and wanted to know how people feel about this - there’s no shame in that!
Ecuador has announced that they will bar entry of foreigners beginning at midnight tomorrow night, and bar entry of citizens and permanent residents beginning Monday night at midnight. Presumably this will as a side effect bar exit, since most of the airlift relies on foreign planes, and they won’t be coming in.
They have also banned all assemblies of more than 30 people and canceled all Semana Santa religious observances including processions etc.
magnet
3810
I think this was literally the point of the Medium article. A curve that falls under the capacity line is hopelessly unrealistic.
On the contrary, if you agree that capacity will be exceeded regardless of mitigation effort, then it follows that more aggressive measures will reduce the number of deaths.
The only mistake would be to be satisfied with current efforts at mitigation. Which was basically the conclusion of the Medium article.
Obviously there is some room for disagreement. But even if it’s impossible to replicate the Chinese approach, the article suggests that the closer we emulate it the better.
In this block of apartments in Manhattan there are tons of young people, all partying away this sunny Saturday afternoon. I think the evidence is out there that for social distancing to work, it requires some form of government mandate. The less some voluntarily comply, the less others are as well. Herd mentality and all that.
ShivaX
3812
It really doesn’t.
Like… it just doesn’t. Lets say you have 1000 people who will die and 10 beds and those people need a week in the bed to live.
Which is better 100 people a week or 500 people a week?
100 people a week = 90 dead per week for 10 weeks = 900 dead
500 people a week = 490 dead per week for 2 week = 980 dead
That’s just napkin math, but it’s also exactly the scenario they’re talking about. You’re arguing that the 2nd option is better and leads to less deaths (and we’re ignoring the effect on hospitals and staff completely along with ton of other stuff).
magnet
3813
I have no idea where you got your numbers.
We are talking about the number of people who fall under the capacity line in that graph. That will always be less than 100%. But the greater the mitigation and/or containment efforts, the more people fall under the capacity line and therefore the fewer people die.
What I think @espressojim is saying, and I agree, is that they are presenting it as absurd to try and flatten the curve to that extent which, combined with the fact the curve should never have been presented as all or none, may suggest to people that aren’t used to thinking about these things out don’t fully understand them that trying to flatten the curve is pointless.
