That’s what they mention in the strategy, but as I mentioned above, the few research papers that dig into this have similar estimates. See also the official UK govt estimate from a few days ago that with 500 confirmed cases suggests there are currently 5K - 10K infected in the UK. But I agree (as I also wrote in the post), there are definite weaknesses in this assumption.
One important thing to keep in mind with testing - it’s very much a “in the moment” picture. So even if you test someone now, that doesn’t mean they won’t develop symptoms the next day (or might have had symptoms a week ago .- though I’d think that is probably less likely). So I’m not sure how much stock to put into the SK claims that they’re catching everyone - as with CFR, this seems like something which it is very hard to estimate while the outbreak is happening.
The current CFR of South Korea is currently sitting at 0,8% (72 dead, 8086 cases), btw. That does not seem to me as if the estimate is completely off-base, though there are obviously many unknowns still.
then it’s best you ask the Tories to stop acting like this whole thing is merely a profit opportunity
The paywall was gone pretty quickly. I imagine a tech screwup.
(Though I’ve no idea why they’re making statements in papers, except maybe to soften the breaking of the news.)
Korea has its cases mostly bunched in less fatal age cohorts. They also probably have less comorbidity than a population like the US. Italy does not. Their fatalities by age cohorts are similar. Don’t assume headline numbers are applicable everywhere.
Also, there is a growing body of work that the asymptomatic thesis is wrong. Perhaps a long single digits share of infections are asymptomatic, but unlikely much more.
Mind you, there may be many, many cases that are low severity and never tested in the US or Italy, but this seems very unlikely in Korea.
Not exactly similar. SK has about half the CFR than Italy in all age cohorts (see my above post for data).
But also Italy is a worst case scenario for healthcare saturation and SK is close to a best case. So some of the difference will be due to that and some due to catching more mild cases.
Thanks for that, good data.
Speculation - had Korea’s cases been as grouped in older age cohorts as Italy, it’s mortality by age cohort may have been comparable.
Assuming - older cases flood hospital system faster, leading to earlier need for triage.
How would our American readers think about Trumps health minister (surgeon general?) putting his advice on a Fox News site? Everyone is fine with our politicians abusing their powers to monopolise pandemic advice on far right propaganda outlets?
Imagine if a Corbyn government issued advice on the Morning Star website.
I already said I didn’t understand why they were making statements in the papers, and this is quite separate from the paywall issue.
Absolutely. But if we assume everyone is getting caught in SK, then the CFR in places like China and Italy where 80-95% are almost certainly slipping through the net is way, way too low. Given the discrepancies, I think it’s more likely SK is failing to catch all the infected, than that the Chinese/Italians are much better at treating people. But to be clear - that’s just my hunch; IANAMD and as the Oxford Uni site notes, trying to calculate CFR exactly before an outbreak is over is impossible anyway.
All in all, though I don’t think the SK numbers make the assumption unreasonable - although there is a significant difference between 5%, 10% or 20% needing to contact the health services (keep in mind that the strategy plan contains what they anticipate to be the most likely scenario - not best case or worst case assumptions).
Mild symptoms <> asymptomatic. Important not to confuse the two concepts.
Mild symptoms could be someone like me who has a dry cough and occasional headaches (in my case, I am 99% sure it is from the allergy treatment I’m currently getting, but who knows?)
Aceris
3948
The article doesn’t include advice. You are lying. Again.
This is advice:
We took action to advise anyone with symptoms, however mild, to stay at home. This advice from the Chief Medical Officer will be reinforced with a national communications campaign so everyone knows what they can do: how you can play your part. The new campaign will set out the latest clinical advice, for people to stay at home for seven days if they develop a high temperature or new continuous cough. We can all keep doing our bit by continuing to wash our hands more often, for 20 seconds or more and having plenty of tissues around to ‘catch it, bin it, kill it’. Following this new advice may sound simple, but it could be lifesaving for others around us, especially the most vulnerable.
Or, not that many are slipping through the net in Italy and very, very few in SK.
The only analysis we have of a captive population was the cruise ship, and that showed 17% asymptomatic cases.
Italy itself is reporting 70% of cases as mild or lower (including 7% asymptomatic), so they are catching a lot of cases that do not require intervention already.
The analysis of cases slipping by rely on comparison with other viruses and not on hard data. SK massive testing is the best we have to a significant sample.
It’s early to tell, but there’s little evidence supporting many cases are not being reported (and little evidence supporting they are, except in SK).
Please feel free to police this thread and call all the posters who say things like this “hate filled”
- I hope Trump gets it
- I hope all of the Trump supporters get it
- I hope they all die
- I hope everyone at Mar-a-Lago get it
- Trump is lying
- Trump is incompetent
- Trump is giving bad advice
- US government is incompetent and giving bad advice and enacting bad policies
- the US government response is shit and politicised
and why dont you lecture each and every one and tell them to show some unity and support President Trump and his government.
This number is also given - the assumption is that 80% of cases that are diagnosed (which is a distinct number from those infected) do not require intervention (presumably sourced from the similar numbers we are seeing in China).
It is the expected result of a sudden policy shift made by people who did not think enough to expect the expected result.
Interestingly, my son flew into DFW last evening from Central America. Plane landed at 6pm, so probably off the plane 6:15 or so. He texted that he was through customs at 7:10 - which seems quite normal.
I did not see all the airport photos until this morning, so I didn’t ask him if there was anything unusual about it.
KevinC
3954
The administration actually has a 450 page playbook developed by CDC experts years ago on how to deal with the public in a crisis like this on this but is choosing to ignore it. This is a very discouraging article:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/14/cdc-manual-crisis-coronavirus-trump/
I finally found the UK one; they seem to be following it.
