You will be stabbing your eardrums with a screwdriver.
Matt_W
4001
I went hiking by myself yesterday. I have a feeling that’s gonna be my go-to antidote to cabin fever. Bonus was that I didn’t think about the news or virus once while tramping around.
nKoan
4002
Into the unknoooooolloloollllllwowooooooon
Once you accept containment isn’t viable, then it’s going to happen, plan or not. The only question is about how soon/late you delay it, and which 60-80%.
That linked document explicitly makes the first assumption, and then has details about exactly those two points.
Psh. “Show Yourself” is the best song in a Disney flick in a decade or more. I’ll fight anyone!
(“Lost in the Woods” is up there)
Yes, my dogs should be happy because, with the weather getting nicer and cabin fever soon to set in, they’re going to be getting a lot more and longer walks.
That plans assumes the flu which has both effective vaccines and treatments, and does not have a 3 - 10% CFR. And again - building up herd immunity is generally done by vaccinating people (which is also the case in that plan) - NOT by making people sick and accepting that some proportion of the populace will die as an inevitable loss.
MikeJ
4007
One thing I wonder is if a period of widespread isolation plus a truly massive testing and monitoring regime can in fact keep the infection rate down super low.
Basically knock the infection level down during the mass isolation and then maintain very extensive monitoring and testing as people start to interact a bit more. I wonder if it’s considered impossible due to the scale and intrusiveness of the needed testing.
rowe33
4008
I’ll be watching for it this time! I mean I’m not watching the movie again right now but I’ll come in for that song so I can see for myself. Viewing #1 of the isolation is going great so far - no fighting, no electronics being used concurrently. It’s bliss!
nKoan
4009
Not wrong! (Ive only seem the movie once, but the soundtrack is on repeat at my house, with the occasional Moana interlude).
That’s just untrue.
Although it is not possible to predict in advance what proportion of the population will become
infected with the new virus, previous studies suggest that roughly one half of all people may
display symptoms of some kind (ranging from mild to severe).
and
For deaths, the analysis of previous influenza pandemics suggests that we should plan
for a situation in which up to 2.5% of those with symptoms would die as a result of
influenza, assuming no effective treatment was available.
It doesn’t assume vaccines or treatments exist. In fact, the planning assumptions are the opposite:
For deaths, the analysis remains that up to 2.5% of those with symptoms would die as a result
of influenza if no treatment proved effective.
Do we know what exactly is considered “mild”? The original China study I think even listed pnemonia as in the mild department iirc. Are those numbers saying Serious/Critical = ICU and mild = non-ICU?
At least in Spain not all serious cases are ICU cases. Serious cases are hospitalized, though.
I’m not sure. There’s some justification of the assumptions in that plan - mainly that the UK is a big, well connected (internally and externally) place that makes it hard. But mostly it’s about the consequences, not the assumptions.
I know this is P&R, but this is the wrongest, most offensive post I’ve read on QT3.
Armando is correct and smart and he should be running everything.
For Penbladia!
LockerK
4016
Listening to the experts - what a novel concept!
This article is NOT shit. What a great article, and thanks for sharing!
Keeping people safe means self-isolation if you develop symptoms, but the official advice here is also misleading. While it is of paramount importance that sick people stay at home to avoid infecting others, it is increasingly clear that transmission can occur before symptoms develop. We know this is true from modelling and observational studies. I have seen it happen myself. We do not know how often it occurs or how important it is in the epidemiology, but it definitely does happen.
newbrof
4018
wasn’t that the story of V for Vendetta? Is this real?
Looks like shows are next on the chopping block for the Strip. Cirque du Soleil has shuttered all seven of their productions, and the Penn & Teller and David Copperfield shows have gone dark also. More restaurants and bars are suspending as well. About all that’s left to do here is gamble, LOL. If the casino floors start closing, then you’ll know we are at full zombie apocalypse.
Paid a quick trip to an ATM inside an Albertson’s today, and the panic buying was in full swing. Place was packed. Every checkout counter had lines several people deep. Must’ve heard like a dozen PA requests for customer service at the liquor counter, LOL, and saw people carting out lots of rolls of paper towels. Looking forward to those stories about Italians trapped in their house with the decomposing corpse of a fallen family member being replaced with stories about Americans trapped in their house with a smelly backed up toilet that a plumber can’t tend to because they’re quarantined.
