4221

I wonder if Donald is going to sign this:
Screenshot_20200316-104121~2

4222

Same here. For anyone with any anxiety issues, this is going to be a rough time ahead.

4223

The vast majority of transmission comes from surface contact and direct contact. Getting the virus means getting the virus - an asymptomatic person isn’t secreting large amounts of droplets that contain the virus.

4224

For those that enjoy Supernatural.

4225

found at another forum.

4226

That’s brilliant.

4227

Yeah, I agree completely. My point was not that one size fits all. (The vast majority of people posting here would have about a 1% risk based on the best knowledge at this time, of places where this started earlier. So I figured the double ones would be illustrative. But I am elderly, and my wife is both elderly and asthmatic, so our risk is higher than that.)

My point is that there two competing things: How worked up should most of us be, on our own behalf. And how worked up do we need the general population to be, in order to minimize the damage. On one hand, I can understand people shrugging and making a realistic assessment that their own risk does not warrant sleeplessness. On the other hand, if people make this assessment and as a result do things that make the spread more rapid, this is going to have very bad consequences.

It kind of reminds me of my years teaching, getting kids ready for the state exams. Raise the level of concern too little, and you end up with avoidable failures and low grades. But raise the level of concern more, and you end up with a whole lot of agitated, sleepless kids who would have been just fine without any of that prodding.

Yeah, but just to be clear for the insomniac crowd, snake eyes on regular six sided dice is a 1 in 36 event. A pair of ones on ten sided dice is a 1 in 100 event.

It is extremely difficult to estimate the actual death rate, given the very large number of unreported, mild cases. (And, more gloomily, the number who got the disease and will die but have not yet.) But no knowledgeable source I know of has ever suggested that the stats so far suggest anything approaching a 1 in 36 death rate for otherwise reasonably healthy people.

4228

I’m sleeping just fine but I do find that it’s starting to get to me. It’s probably an overdose of news and a negative feedback loop created by our connected world. When SARS hit there was no Facebook and no smartphones. As a result it does feel like a weight is settling on me. But anxiety has not started yet. I feel for the people who are on the verge of retiring and had all of their savings in the stock market and who are also in the dangerzone age group.

4229

So, this whole thing is a net good for the environment?

4230

There is no question that fewer cars being driven, fewer planes and cruise ships being used, and less stuff being made (because of the economic downturn) will be a net positive for the environment.

The question is if it’s worth it.

4231

One thing I am trying to get a handle on is how well the social distancing measures stack up to affect R0. If you start at R0 = 3 in an uncontrolled scenario, does it mean that removing more than 2/3 of the opportunities to spread would reduce R0 below 1? Or is there some kind of nonlinear relationship?

4232

Are there any resources out there on what steps people can take if they’re showing symptoms and self isolating at home? That’s starting to come up in my family’s group text, and I’d like to point them to an expert source.

Edit: e.g. meds or good habits. Right now I’m telling them to get sleep and stay hydrated, but that lacks persuasive power.

4233

I mean, fewer humans is a net good for the environment, full stop, as things stand today.

4234

because a clean environment is only worth it if we can retire on the beach, right? Snarky, I know, but I do feel we’ve grown a bit too entitled to our vacations and things and extravagant diets, and that it isn’t really a dramatic sacrifice to scale down our operations by even as much as half and still lead fulfilled lives.

I do think the [85% of] boomers [who make it] are gonna smash the government with their votes if it turns out they are all told that it sucks to be them, you’re retiring with 50% of your 401k, ¯_(ツ)_/¯

4235
4236

If you’re retiring in 2021 and you have your money in like lithium futures and offshore tech stocks or some shit, I guess sorry bro?

4237

50% sounds about right. There’s a lot of bear left in this market yet.

Hospitality sector will be obliterated. Aviation will be obliterated. Boeing will probably barely survive on government contracts. Oil has taken a beating.

I guess the money should have all been shifted into bonds if someone has a year to retire, but a lot of people dont do that.

4238

We are all truly socialists now.

4239

I was planning on retiring next year but now the picture is a bit uncertain. I still haven’t looked at my portfolio since all this sliding started… I should probably buck up and take a peek. Prior to all this I had it in about 60% bonds so it will be a bit cushioned (but as 2008 showed, when the stock market collapses, nothing is truly safe except I guess cash).

4240

Nah… us genx are old people, the virus will be nasty to us.