4461

Big difference between wartime and this. Wartime you had baseball, life went on semi-normally, even if things were rationed, and you had an enemy to oppose.

This is different psychologically, and there’s a lot more distrust now.
If we pay people to do nothing as a way of making them somewhat whole, that’s going to help- I just don’t think we’re going to do that- even if Romney is now cribbing from Yang.

4462

Dammit. First Tom Hanks and Rita Wilson, now Idris freaking Elba? Here’s hoping they make it OK.

4463

Fortunately Mel Brooks is being kept behind glass.

4464

Three new confirmed cases in NZ all three had just returned from international travel. One of them has a son who is showing symptoms and is now in self isolation. He attends my sister’s high school, and if he tests positive, the ministry is recommending the school close.

4465
4466

Looks like NYC is getting hit pretty hard.

https://weinbergerlab.shinyapps.io/NYC_syndromic/

Change sydrome to resperatory

4467

Not that I’d wish it on anyone, but why Elba and not, say, Ted Nugent?

4468

I had seen this before and it was covered in the comments, but Lodi is also half the size of Bergamo. The paper’s (is there a paper?) authors say in the thread that they do not think that has an impact, but they haven’t had time to explain why. A % would seem to be a more accurate graph.

4469

I can’t speak to the veracity of the study, but absolute numbers rather than a percentage certainly is meaningful if what you are analyzing is the slope of the line. There of course may be other factors, but it is a hopeful indication that earlier application of distancing measures can work.

Why would % be more accurate, and what do you even mean by accurate here?

4470

When time permits, I will draw the graph by percentage in Excel and upload it here. I’m all for lockdowns, but I’m also not for misleading graphs.

I agree with flattening the curve but I also agree with magnet that adding the “artificial” healthcare capacity line to the chart we’ve all seen now made the graph more compelling，but less accurate.

Space reserved!

4471

Would not using a per capita measure for this be misleading? It’s not like in either location the number of cases we are talking about is going to be lower because the virus is running out of new people to infect. Sure, the plots by % will look different, and so? I’m honestly curious why you think a percentage measure is meaningful but an absolute measure is misleading in this specific case.

If one wants to get nitpicky, wouldn’t population density be a much better nit to pick than total population?

4472

File under ‘silver linings’

4473

I agree with you that population density would be even better! Will look it up to see if that info is available. Yet another chart to draw???

I don’t know for sure what the charts will look like, and I think (just at a glance) that the lockdown will still have an effect by %, just less pronounced. It just rubs me the wrong way that these aren’t normalized with a 2x population difference. If it was 1.2x you wouldn’t see any complaints from me.

4474

One thing I think we can all agree on is when there’s a national health emergency, the first thing I wonder is: what would Kid Rock do?

This is also another “life comes at you fast” moment.

From 11 hours ago:

From 5 hours ago (post Trump press conference):

4475

7 San Francisco Bay Area counties are under ‘shelter-in-place’ law starting tonite at midnite

San Francisco’s detail is here(i’m told it’s the same for the others)

–sidebar–

This sounds like something from a George Carlin skit…i can practically hear him say it…

4476

Foreclosures and evictions halted and utility shutoff protections until end of May in California. I understand other cities and states are taking similar moves.

4477

I want to know-- is the US Army Corps of Engineers being mobilized to build more hospital capacity? We should be on a wartime-like mobilization with shit like this, test kit and protective equipment production. Fuck any concerns about the damn federal debt/deficit right now. Effective demand is sufficiently suppressed so it won’t cause inflation.

4478

Seems like FEMA would have capabilities as well.

Earlier today I read that manufacturers of ventilators say they could ramp up production by as much as 5x, but no-one has asked them to.

4479

I agree. Pay people to build what will help. It will help the economy and help deal with the crisis.

4480

ya, i think we both know the answer to that…