4581

Children, specifically, seem to frequently have mild symptoms.

4582

Piacenza is a city, not a province. It does not have roughly the same population as either the town of Lodi or the province of Lodi.

Again, are you saying that total population somehow limits the spread of a virus at very low rates of infection?

4583

True, but not asymptomatic. I collected my youngest from school today, I would say 25% of adults collecting were over 70.I am collecting so my in laws don’t have to.

Additionally I have received an email from my eldest schools saying they may have to stop some year groups coming in as they are having staff shortages, starting with the oldest pupils.

4584

Scott, let’s take that to PMs. I’m saying the chart is bad. That’s what I’m saying. If the original chart had Piacenza and Lodi, it wouldn’t have gotten the retweets (except from folks against shutdowns, which I am emphatically not against). Everything you are saying is a continuation of your thought experiment, which I am happy to discuss further with you.

4585

Yes, my bad, sorry. Piacenza is also a province, one with 1/3rd the pop density of Lodi and 1/4 that of Bergamo.

Yes, but your original reason for that reaction is, I think, wrong, unless you can propose a mechanism for how total population (not density) limits infection spread at very low rates of infection.

Let’s see how the authors respond, as you suggest.

4586

Iowa not fucking around.

4587

San Diego has been locked down similarly since midnight last night. Our rules as follows:

  1. All gathering of 50 people or more are prohibited.
  2. All bars, adult entertainment and other establishments that serve alcohol but not food shall close.
  3. All restaurants are ordered to close on-site dining, offer take-out only and establish social distancing for order pick-ups.
  4. All businesses should allow employees to telecommute, establish social distancing and suspend any policies that require a doctor’s note for sick leave.
  5. All schools and school activities are closed.
  6. Strong recommendation that people who are 65 and older, or immune-compromised or have a chronic underlying condition self-quarantine.
  7. Non-essential personnel are banned from entering hospitals and long-term care facilities. Anyone showing symptoms of COVID-19 are also banned form entering hospitals and long-term care facilities.
  8. Hospitals and healthcare providers are ordered to preserve resources and stop non-emergent and elective surgeries when possible.
  9. All COVID-19 test results are to be reported to the county immediately.
  10. Anyone arriving in the county from a CDC Level-3 warning countries, including just passing through on a layover, are subject to a 14-day home quarantine and self-monitoring.
  11. Strong recommendation that anyone exhibiting COVID-19 symptoms to self-isolate at home unless seeking medical treatment.

I find it notable that people with symptoms are banned from hospitals. That’s like saying people with fires in their houses shouldn’t call the fire department.

4588

I’m assuming that means you can’t visit a hospital while showing symptoms, which sounds like a no-brainer to me.

4589

This is the procedure here: unless you think your life is in immediate danger you call the hospital, not go, and doctors will interview and follow up by phone. You are NOT supposed to go into the Hospital by yourself. It was one of the first measures they put in place.

4590

It’s also a bit like saying people who are on fire shouldn’t go to a fire department filled with flammable people.

4591

I was just about to write that. Ha!

In related news, every time a train goes by on the tracks near my house, I half expect it to be in flames.

4592

Nope. It’s definitely not. They should call the fire departement. But not set fire to their building.

That’s also one of the first measures that was set in place in UK. When a lady with the virus just walked into the ER of our local hospital after taking an Uber there, it created quite the ruckus back in February. Just showing up like that is how you spread it further.

4593

Unlikely, as the Martians have even weaker immune systems than Boomers.

4594

OMG this effing guy (Trump) just claimed that he was always saying it was serious/pandemic etc. !!

Where’s the instant replay when you need it?

4595

Yeah, but if that’s what it takes for him to treat this seriously, OK. He’s going to lie either way, and at least that form of lie is less likely to kill tens of thousands of people.

4596

No, where the capacity line falls determines whether the proposed intervention is sufficient to prevent unnecessary deaths.

A graph needs to stand on its own, independent of the author’s interpretation. If a graph can easily be misinterpreted without knowing how the author intended to use it, then it is a bad graph.

Depends. For instance, this Venn diagram is abstract yet problematic.

4597

Ooh, that’s really neat. Do you have a link to where they keep track of this? The 5-20% estimate for numbers diagnosed vs actual infected looks fairly reasonable (albeit it’s still a broad spread, but at least one can play a bit around with worst-case and best-case scenarios).

4598

OK, yes I agree that’s sensible. But there’s been no such guidance from government here, like what you’re supposed to do if you’re sick. Who will evaluate you? When should you go to the hospital? None of that. So “don’t go to the hospital if you’re sick” is dumb. It should be: “here’s what you do if you’re sick: don’t go the hospital. Instead…”

4599

This is my world. My fiance shares custody with her ex-husband. The children transfer households every few days. Days. On his side he is of the mind that Corona is all overblown hysteria and is sharing social media toilet paper hoarding memes with the children. Thus they think it’s a joke. Just a few days ago he was taking them to a resaurant and visiting with his girlfriend when there are multiple confirmed cases in the city, a confirmed case in the children’s school district, and even today a substitute teacher in the area died. Both sides have local, older, and at risk family. It is frustrating, but what to do. We are asking him if he is ok expanding time windows they are with each house. I am hoping he agrees and that by the time he has them again, he is looking at Corona more seriously.

4600

Well then you shouldn’t worry, because the graph did stand on it’s own and it was not easily misinterpreted. As evidenced by the incredibly low number of people who seem to have misinterpreted it.