Indeed. That’s a requirement. In UK, we have the NHS 111 service, where nurses and doctors take your call and advise you. One advantage of a nationalised health service.
They give numbers in daily press conferences. No link to keep track off, sadly.
magnet
4603
On its own, it is easy to conclude that countermeasures are sufficient to keep patients under capacity. Which is likely false.
The ease of doing something is not necessarily related to the number of people who do it. For example, handwashing and avoiding bars is easy.
Thrag
4604
But that’s entirely your interpretation. You are projecting your (seemingly willful) misunderstanding onto others and claiming that as the basis of the problem. Because you can intentionally misinterpret a chart that means it’s a bad chart. That’s some circular logic there. This is a really odd hill to pick to die on.
Oghier
4605
It may not be possible in most places to avoid surging beyond capacity. Still, three times capacity would be a lot better than ten times. That may be all we can achieve.
Share online with your friends
Some goodish news. This is Italy’s cases per day graph:
Today’s numbers are 3500 or the same as 3 days ago. That’s 3 days without significant day to day growth in new cases. So far we had only seen one day dips that turned out to be non-significant.
If this follows China, we will see a continuous number for a while, or even spikes as milder cases are tested.
Thrag
4609
Damn, and I was just this morning filling a cart with supplies for various DIY house projects I was hoping to keep myself occupied with during lockdown.
Matt_W
4610
That is good news. As I understand it, Italy’s lockdown measures are not substantially different than those implemented in many U.S. cities now. Maybe we actually will flatten the curve.
KevinC
4611
Before I get excited, didn’t they reduce testing? From around 15,000 to 12,000 yesterday. Was that a one day blip or a change in testing policy?
Matt_W
4612
It doesn’t affect last-mile orders or existing stock. It only applies to wholesale and consignment orders. Though those will, of course, trickle out to consumers before long.
magnet
4613
It is the correct interpretation of that graph. The capacity line is clearly above the second peak. This is very likely false. That’s not my problem, that’s the graph’s problem.
Thrag
4614
Your misinterpretation is that you are mistaking a graph that shows an example of what mitigation procedures hope to achieve with a chart that is guaranteeing an outcome. It appears you are unwilling to abandon the perspective that your willful misinterpretation must be the common interpretation despite no evidence of that fact. You’ve satisfied my curiosity about your insistence on this point so I’ll won’t bother you about it anymore.
Tman
4615
I like that one. This is the one I’ve seen:
anuary 22: “We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China. It’s going to be just fine.”
February 2: “We pretty much shut it down coming in from China.”
February 24: “The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA… Stock Market starting to look very good to me!”
February 25: “CDC and my Administration are doing a GREAT job of handling Coronavirus.”
February 25: “I think that’s a problem that’s going to go away… They have studied it. They know very much. In fact, we’re very close to a vaccine.”
February 26: “The 15 (cases in the US) within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero.”
February 26: “We’re going very substantially down, not up.”
February 27: “One day it’s like a miracle, it will disappear.”
February 28: “We’re ordering a lot of supplies. We’re ordering a lot of, uh, elements that frankly we wouldn’t be ordering unless it was something like this. But we’re ordering a lot of different elements of medical.”
March 2: “You take a solid flu vaccine, you don’t think that could have an impact, or much of an impact, on corona?”
March 2: “A lot of things are happening, a lot of very exciting things are happening and they’re happening very rapidly.”
March 4: “If we have thousands or hundreds of thousands of people that get better just by, you know, sitting around and even going to work — some of them go to work, but they get better.”
March 5: “I NEVER said people that are feeling sick should go to work.”
March 5: “The United States… has, as of now, only 129 cases… and 11 deaths. We are working very hard to keep these numbers as low as possible!”
March 6: “I think we’re doing a really good job in this country at keeping it down… a tremendous job at keeping it down.”
March 6: “Anybody right now, and yesterday, anybody that needs a test gets a test. They’re there. And the tests are beautiful…. the tests are all perfect like the letter was perfect. The transcription was perfect. Right? This was not as perfect as that but pretty good.”
March 6: “I like this stuff. I really get it. People are surprised that I understand it… Every one of these doctors said, ‘How do you know so much about this?’ Maybe I have a natural ability. Maybe I should have done that instead of running for president.”
March 6: “I don’t need to have the numbers double because of one ship that wasn’t our fault.”
March 8: “We have a perfectly coordinated and fine tuned plan at the White House for our attack on CoronaVirus.”
March 9: “This blindsided the world.”
March 13: declares National Emergency
Where are you getting daily testing data? As of March 13 Italy had performed 86k tests. If they tested 15k a day recently that could have been a peak.
Less tests could also mean less urgent cases.
Edit: NVM, found data:
11400 tests on the 13th
11600 tests on the 14th
15700 tests on the 15th
13000 Tests on the 16th
10699 on today
The 15k tests on the 14th (and they didn’t detect growth there) could be a peak.
Thrag
4617
So, what’s the most unsettling “did I just think that” though you’ve all had during this.
As my wife is worried about her 83 year old mother I found myself for a moment thinking “boy, I’m glad my parents are already dead”.
magnet
4618
Yes, they are hoping to prevent any overcapacity. But they will fail.
If I showed you an illustrated timeline of the vaccine that I was “hoping to achieve” in my kitchen within a few weeks, you would likely ridicule my timeline as hopelessly unrealistic at best, and misleading (if people believed it) at worst. Because I will fail.
This illustration is no different. It provides a false sense of security and sidesteps hard questions about why we aren’t building up capacity faster. Because if overcapacity truly is inevitable, then every extra bit of capacity means lives saved.
Man hid his positive result from his clinic so he could have his rhinoplasty. Now facing 12 years prison.
Perhaps, but it certainly matters by how much they fail. The intent of the graft is to demonstrate the strategy in the abstract, not define the actual solution and guarantee an outcome,
