Oghier
4944
If you want to follow the daily firehouse of covid-19 science, there’s a good subreddit for that:
https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/
I know many here are allergic to reddit. That particular sub is clear of alt-right, incel, shitposting memelords and other garbage that infect much of the site. The mods are doing a good job keeping it clean.
So I have a box of Tamiflu in our medicine cabinet from last year when I got it prescribed but didn’t end up needing it. If I get a fever and dry cough and hard breathing in the near future, is there any reason not to take it in the hopes that it might possibly help? Is there any danger to that or down side?
Nesrie
4946
And what kind of a cure are you looking for… exactly. It’s not like we really have “a cure” for the flu, or the common cold, or SARS or MERS or… or… I mean we treat the symptoms, have some anti-viral work but the vaccine is a goal and is not really a cure in the way that word is used.
IANAD, but take it. If it is the flu, it’ll help. And you need to stay as healthy as possible. If it’s COVID, it won’t help. Then again, pretty much nothing you would have access to would.
Oghier
4948
I think the numbers to watch are deaths, deaths vs recoveries, as well as percentages for critical cases and CFR. Absolute numbers of new infections will, as you point out, rise and fall with testing availability and criteria.
But maybe someone smarter can identify better KPI’s – any ambitions I had to be a doctor expired in freshman organic chemistry in the 1980’s ;) Fucking class started at 7:30am!
ShivaX
4949
Maybe. I’d ask a physician first. Little random shit can do weird things.
For example:
But then also:
So… ask a doctor and hope they know.
That’s cool. An interesting graph from the subreddit so we can all argue about it:
vyshka
4951
I might finally be able to convince my wife to move!
Gates actually has a AMA going on right now regarding COVID-19 on Reddit:
#1 post on Reddit right now. All the sites he’s linking are still up. No P1s so far today!
Hey now, don’t knock magic monkeys. I made a wish on my monkey’s paw to get out of my trip to Tennessee and… Hmm, maybe beat if we don’t discuss that.
I’m not caught up on the thread yet but just yesterday there was a headline that they’ve started clinical trials in humans for a vaccine in Seattle. Still a long ways to go from the first clinical trials, even if you fast track the process. Does it work? Is it safe?
I’m not the best molecular biologist, but that looked pretty legit molecular biology to me, and I really liked that he brought mouse model work in. I’ve forwarded on to my lab to get additional opinions. Now I feel like I gotta dig into the other videos! There goes my afternoon.
dtolman
4957
Keep in mind that these tests could be from last week if the lag is anything like in the US between collection of sample and lab result (NY state numbers for today are mostly for tests collected between 3/11 and 3/16).
Pretty sure there are no actual monkeys in 12 Monkeys.
The fine print is slightly depressing. I guess you’d need to get that prescription right away at the first sign of infection…
But a Japanese health ministry source suggested the drug was not as effective in people with more severe symptoms. “We’ve given Avigan to 70 to 80 people, but it doesn’t seem to work that well when the virus has already multiplied,” the source told the Mainichi Shimbun.
The same limitations had been identified in studies involving coronavirus patients using a combination of the HIV antiretrovirals lopinavir and ritonavir, the source added.
Seems like shortening the time you’re contagious is a worthwhile goal, though.
Yep. Is it safe? comes first. The first trial will be only 45 subjects, given various doses starting with too low to do any good even if it does work. That (Phase 1) trial would only catch side effects that are both very common and major.
Phase 2 will be about both efficacy and safety. Substantially higher numbers, so less common side effects will become apparent, but probably not all of them. They will need to enroll enough subjects to get a halfway decent estimate of effectiveness.
Won’t need a Phase 3 trial (that would ask “is this better than current vaccine?”), but actual rollout will be closely watched for both more side effects and efficacy.
My concern is that it may not the people who need ICU beds, but if it helps anyone that’s at least another tool in the kit.
magnet
4963
Presumably, the key statistic is % recovered. If that’s going up, then things are improving. If it’s going down, then either the number of infections or the fatality rate is getting worse.
FWIW, China is now at 86% recovered. Italy is about 11%. The US is slightly under 1%.
