5106

My sister lives in NYC and her son’s preschool teacher tested positive for covid-19 today. Both of her boys have been really sick the past few days, and the doctor on the phone says it’s likely they both have it. My brother-in-law has a long history of lung problems, he will probably get it too.

Well, it just got real for me.

5107

Really sorry to hear that, Tim. Here’s hoping they all get through it with relatively mild symptoms and speedy recoveries.

5108

Thanks…

The brother-in-law is actually sick too with symptoms. It is still possible that they have the regular flu I suppose. The hospital said to only take the brother-in-law in if breathing problems develop. Fingers crossed.

5109

This is not good.

5110

Fuck, yeah. Based on China and Italy I was thinking we could cap this at 200,000 or so but exponential math is scary. Let’s say six weeks til the curve starts to level out… Who’s good at math and can tell me the numbers we’re looking at at that point

5111

Italy, which has nearly 30,000 confirmed coronavirus cases and more than 2,100 deaths, is perhaps facing the gravest shortage of ventilators. In the Northeast region of Veneto, officials are looking into whether ventilators designed for animals can be used on humans, local media reported.

5112

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Edit: on a more serious note, I can see the logic in this decision. But solo camping trips were part of my self-care habits. I’ll need to figure out a substitute.

5113

If it continues on trend (it can’t and won’t) we’ll have a million cases on about April 4.

5114

I think that will change in the week to come as people get a lesson in exponential growth. I will say that I’ve been working from home but I had to run out for something tonight and I was very pleasantly surprised. My town looked like a ghost town. (Population 28,000).

There were cars and people but not many and the people were practicing social distancing

5115

Connecticut has its first death today - A resident at my mother’s assisted living facility. It’s only been two days but so far there are only the two confirmed cases so I’m praying they mitigated successfully.

5116

As someone who works in a NYC suburb’s county government helping to organize the COVID-19 response, and who knows several ER docs in the suburbs, let me share a public service message from what I’ve seen in private:

Don’t fuck around. Stay home. It is everywhere NYC commuters go, the numbers you saw for today are the results from last week tests, and ERs will hit their breaking point in the next week or two. You don’t want this - hospitals are already being flooded with cases far beyond a normal flu season… and its just barely started.

5117

Fuck. Sorry to hear it :( And that’s fucking ridiculous that people like your mother still aren’t being tested at this late date.

5118

If I look on that web cam tomorrow and see the streets of NYC full again, with steady streams of people getting on and off buses then heads need to roll.

I found this little doc interesting detailing life in Bejing under lockdown, and how many chinese people really do hate the communist government in charge.

5119

The thing is, Trump has been pretty much using the same tactic as CCP by trivialising the threat. Yes this is an authorianian problem. But given that Trump has been running the same playbook as CCP (blaming others for their own fault etc.), the problem is not just with authoritarianism in general, but also underestimating the problem all round. When it was shutting down China, people outside think “it is ok, it is just China”. Then it hits Iran, and South Korea. “Oh it is fine, it isn’t here”. Then it hits Italy. “It is getting a bit serious, but ok”. Then US and whole of Europe. AND THEN SOME PEOPLE ARE STILL SAYING THIS IS JUST LIKE NORMAL FLU.

WHO has been saying that this shit is real, and people should be prepared. But nobody wants to take it seriously until there is community transmission. Then it is already late.

PS sorry shit got real for you personally, fingers crossed everybody can pull through this.

5120

I’ve had a persistent dry cough and headache since returning from the USA 10 days ago. On Tuesday I was tested since this is NZ and we actually seem to care about our population and it turns out

No covid

My non sarcastic point being theres other things out there as well as this.

5121

South Korea shows that a democracy can tackle it.

5122

Isn’t that the worst? I have something as well, sniffles and blowing my nose a lot. I’m pretty sure it’s because of the wood I’m using in my shop right now (it’s all clear mucus), but anything like this makes you start wondering / questioning if I’m doing enough.

5123

I’m saying underestimating the gravity of Covid-19 is the problem, not whether a government is democratic or authoritarian. South Korea underestimated it, and they are paying the price, just like China. South Korea can contain it, so can China it seems (Chinese stats should always be taken with a pinch of salt). I’m saying that authoritarian government underestimated the problem just as much as democratic government.

Previously there were many articles in the American and UK press suggesting that China got that huge problem because it is authoritarian. As it turns out everybody is guilty.

5124

Ah, crap. I’m sorry, Tim.

5125

I hope everyone ends up OK. The number of people in this small community who have posted about close relatives who (likely) have the virus is pretty discouraging. Especially at this early stage.