The current estimates are ~ 2.6, they had estimated 3.88. But yeah, it’s hard to get good estimates when there are so few tests.
jsnell
5612
That appears to be the case. RKI is quoted as stating: “We don’t consider post-mortem tests to be a decisive factor. We work on the principle that patients are tested before they die”.
In other news, truly we live in the future now:
I’ve seen it range from 2-6, so yeah. Again one of those things antibody tests will help us clear up. Until then, policy response needs to be aggressive and assume worst cases.
newbrof
5614
that is not true, I checked some older reports.
also I learned, that Germany did about 100,000 tests last week.
I have an issue with my tenant, I rented a room to a friend last year. He doesn’t do the social distancing thing. He just goes out meeting people, friends. So, how can I trust him. We are using the same bathroom, kitchen. He does not understand yet, how serious it is. He is of the “what about the flu” kind. I do the social distancing now with him, I stay in my part of the appartment and desinfect door handles, switches regularly.
I went for a walk, and unbelievable how often I overhear conversations of younger people “what about the flu”
It looks lockdown is coming. Today it was anounced, that no more than 3 people are allowed to be in a group outside.
The commonwealth of Pennsylvania locked down last night.
My commute into work today consisted of 95% tractor trailer traffic. And roads pretty empty, including the PA turnpike.
Enidigm
5616
Passing on that asteroid mining job is looking like a bad decision now.
Aceris
5617
If R0 is really 3.88, why are most Western epidemilogists working with numbers like 2.4?
I thought the ~2.4 number came from the Chinese studies?
I forget your location. I’m sure Boletaria is used to pandemics, so you must be somewhere more mundane now.
They had an estimate based on the city. Remember, an R0 estimate is a combination of the biological characteristics of the virus AND the human interactions. This is why social distancing reduces R0. So maybe the default Wuhan condition was that they were less socially distant than somewhere else. This might be combined with a smaller sample size for the estimate that adds additional variance to the point estimate.
dtolman
5620
Remember this is a trailing indicator - so that indicates 50k were infected two weeks ago (average is about two weeks from exposure to hospitalization). Right now with the 6 day doubling rule that would be in the 250k+ range.
The death rate - which is a trailing indicator of three weeks ago, is consistent with that range as well.
Yes, of course. 50k symptomatic infected now, Real infected trail about 8 days (not two weeks), 5 days for symptoms, 3 days for diagnosis on average, at least going by Italian data.
However deaths rates are doubling every 2-3 days, not 6 days.
So yeah, 200-250k IF the week of lockdown hasn’t reduced the infection rates (that’s why you can’t extrapolate current infected, just current symptomatic infected). Italy’s doubling time has been growing lately (which means the growth rate slowing), which is hopeful.
Menzo
5623
60 million Californians confined to their homes, and in Florida they’re still doing upside down margaritas on the beaches.
We’re going to see a huge spike in cases as those spring breakers go home.
@espressojim, thank you so much for all the information you’ve been passing on. It’s been tremendously helpful to me as I make personal decisions that will impact me and those around me. You words will help save lives. Thank You.
Also, a big shoutout to everyone else who’s posting information to this board. All of you add to the chorus of voices that help raise awareness of how bad this is going to get. The information I got from QT3 led me to prep a month ago, so I’m not worried about stocking up. I’m not exactly locked into a Toilet Paper Fortress of Solitude, but I’m good.
You guys are an amazing group, and I’m continuously amazed that I’m getting my best COVID-19 information from a frakking gaming website.
Now, GO WASH YOUR HANDS.
So if you’re wondering why the UK has so few cases registered, this may be why:
Seeing a lot of chatter online similar to the above now, that the standards for testing for Covid-19 are simply all over the place. The rule of thumb so far seems to be that only around 20% of the people who test positive for Covid-19 need hospitalization. I’m not convinced that holds for the UK, if the above is true. Granted, testing capacity is low (compare ~65K tested in the UK to 43K tested in Norway, a country with less than 10% of the population the UK has), but this still seems like tests are being prioritized toward a lot of people who test negative.
Also, SAGE has just published their rationale for the Covid-19 response in the UK:
Just browsing this, I see a bunch of behavioral science papers, and looking through their risk assessment of Covid-19, numbers for hospitalizations and mortality that are less than half those estimated in other countries. I suspect the critique of this may end up quite fierce.
Mr.GRIM
5626
As expected, another huge jump in NY. An increase of 3000.
Governor has (finally) ordered a lockdown. Lets all stare at Florida now.
Richard Horton (MD, and editor of the Lancet), has been soliciting experiences of what is going on in the UK’s hospitals, and summarizing and collating them on twitter in an attempt to raise awareness. What he is posting does not sound good:
If this is in any way representative of what is happening anywhere in the UK right now, things are going to be extremely bad. This is how you get Italy.
The one thing I don’t understand is - if this is actually happening, where is the media, and why are they not picking up on this?
The media are mainly propaganda outlets for those fucks in No. 10. The Tories probably put a D-Notice on the bad news too.
