5712

This is the one they say can reduces the symptoms once you already have Coronavirus?

5713
  1. It’s a bit early still - my impression is that it takes 15+ days to go from contracting the disease to dying - 7 days incubation, a few days of initial symptoms and then time on ICU. Please don’t quote these figures as I can’t recall the source.
  2. As the numbers of cases increase that will produce a disproportionate spike in deaths if ICU capacity is exceeded, which we believe it is in Italy.
5714

Alexander tries to give Trump a free double and he rushes the mound.

5715

The video of that moment will make a great ad. Nice that it’s about the perfect length for a TV spot.

Here’s a video for those that missed it.

5716
5717

I wish ANY of the reporters would fire back after being attacked like that. Even if it meant losing “Access”. Fuck him…He’s so vile.

…and…distractions gonna distract, I guess

5718

OMG you guys! I just heard the lead singer of Nirvana died of coronavirus! Please tell me if it’s true, I think he is really cool?

5719

I wish Trump wouldn’t give press conferences any more at this point, didn’t he put Pence in charge of this anyway?

5720

and give him and experts all of the spotlight? puh-leeze

5721

It’s the drug therapy that espressojim linked the survey and graph to earlier this afternoon, yes.

5722

More research supporting the need for widespread testing.

5723

COVID Project testing stats for the midday are locked in, and pending the 4pm update and lock-in of data for Friday, March 20, it looks promising again.

Yesterday at start of day: 76,495 tests in the US run, total.
Yesterday at midday data lock-in: ~96,000 tests in the US run, total.
Yesterday at 4pm data lock-in for the day: 103,867 tests run, total.

Today at midday we’re at 130,082 tests run. That bodes SUPER well for the end of day number.

Remember, Sunday, the number was at ~28,000 total tests accounted for. Wednesday close of day (less than 48 hours ago) it was at 76,495.

Typical caveats apply: it’s still not enough. Areas that need test kits don’t have enough.

But the ramp up is definitely happening and noticeable.

(ALSO: state reporting is getting much better too.)

5724

I find it funny in a way that most of the lab folk I know are home and unable to work, but most of the math, stats, modeling, computational folk are harder at work than ever. Everyone wants to contribute as fast as possible, it’s almost like a spontaneous moonshot - you don’t need to ask us to dig in, we will by nature.

[That said, we’re one of the few labs that has received authorization to continue work. Some smart and super motivated folks are doing killer work that may have an impact.]

5725

It’s not that striking.

  • we know test and trace can reduce R0 considerably (and presumably this is a derived assumption of their toy model)
  • we know test and trace doesnt work if you cant test everyone you want to. (duh)
  • Therefore if R gets above 1 and the infected count grows, your test and trace will break down and R will grow further, until eventually the benefit of your test and trace becomes negligable
  • Therefore the behaviour is bistable.
5726

5,986 new cases and 627 deaths in Italy today. Those poor people.

5727

“…our advice isn’t always taken?”

Is Nichols an expert in something?

5728

Looks like Illinois is going to ‘Shelter in Place’ starting tomorrow.

5729

This is my source of hope. I know that there are very smart people all over the world utterly focused on this. This will get solved.

It almost makes up for my complete lack of confidence in the federal government.

5730

Very nice, in my area of PA near Allentown they went from zero testing sites at the start of the week to I believe 10 (ten) sites now in a 40 mile radius of where I live.

If you think you have it , call the number, talk to someone, if they say yep go get tested you pick the site closest/not busy and head over. All the sites are former doctor office locations (isolated from the main hospitals).

I would like to hope / think this level of testing is being offered everywhere.

5731

Which why I keep watching SK numbers.