6275

So I thought this was posted here already, but it must not have based on the current conversation

[The whole reason my PI and I were talking to a virologist last night was to look at some of the claims about mutation in the post below. I think the author is wrong on those points, but his overall call to action is otherwise correct.]

6276

Emirates suspending ALL passenger flights worldwide (155 routes) by Wednesday 25; I have 2 possible flights home now or I’m here for the duration, come what may. Which in Indonesia, I fear will not be pretty.

6277

I think most have misread my mask advice. I’m not advocating everyone wear N95. Rather, I’d recommend surgical type masks, which are simple to make and can scale up quickly.

Better would be simple cotton masks - everyone buys a set of 10 and wears one per day, washing them in the laundry. The point is to keep droplets from spreading from your own mouth (for everyone!), not to filter the air you yourself are breathing.

As far as the cultural critique - this is the same argument I heard from NYC colleagues 2 weeks ago “they’ll never have a lockdown in the US!”.

6278

Thanks for that article. Helpful reading. Still missing leadership here in the U.S., even from state governors who are implementing lockdown measures. We need public addresses every day from officials who are experts on both the medical and economic implications. We need to be reassured that we’re not going to have to starve to death to fight this thing.

6279

We’re doing the same thing with e.g. nurses, aren’t we? And if everybody gets the same check from the government, then food workers get it too. Hell, give them more. I’ll vote for that.

6280

I mean, a lot of people in Asia wear masks all the time already, don’t they?

Pretty sure I read something yesterday about how cotton masks are worse than no masks, at least for health care workers. Anyway, I looked for masks yesterday. No dice, at least not here.

6281

I haven’t finished the thread yet so apologies if this was already brought up. You post immediately brought a couple of thoughts to mind…

They were able to do so because their lock down was extremely thorough and they went to great length to keep the infected, and the potentially affected, isolated from everyone else. Including…

Yes. In China, 75% of the spread was happening within families. They were not able to stop the spread until they started sending anyone with symptoms to hotels and fever hospitals. isolating them away from their families. Self-quarantine at home only works if you live alone, otherwise, you’re spreading the disease to everyone in your household and anyone they come in contact with.

Your government is wrong in this case. The second case in my town is a friend of mine. I haven’t seen him in months and by the time his test results came back he was on his second day of starting to feel better. (He said, in addition to feeling terrible, he had a lot of trouble breathing for several days and it was terrifying.) I bring him up because he does not travel and he has not been in contact with anyone who traveled. He’s got a very regimented life. Wake up, go to the gym, go to work, go to the gym, go home. If I had to lay money or where he got it, it was the gym.

Thanks to information from this thread, I’ve been keeping my wife very well informed so that she can protect her residents. The actions she took to try keeping it out of her building eventually because the norm but she was consistently a day or two ahead of corporate and government recommendations. I started working from home a week before my corporation mandated it for anyone who is able. I raised a couple of eyebrows in doing it but I knew, again, based on info gleaned from this thread, that they were still playing catch up and would be following suit shortly.

The point is, we’re not close to doing this right. You asked where the line is and the lessons of China and Italy is that the line is way over near the “eliminate as much contact as humanly possible” end of the spectrum. Because we’re not an authoritarian country and because we don’t have experience with these sorts of outbreaks, it’s going to take a while for both the government and the people to accept how total this isolation will be. That’s a shame because we won’t see the quick turn around that China has but, in the meantime, if you’re wondering what’s reasonable, err on the side of “overly” cautious and be confident that the rest of the country will catch up with you.

6282

My friend (Infectious Disease Control officer of an ambulance company) told me a story about a high school student who was sent home from school (this was before the schools were closed) and told to quarantine. She was not to leave the house for two weeks. However, her parents and younger sister had no such instruction, so the sister continued going to her school, and parents continued going to work. I mean, the girl might as well have not been quarantined in the first place.

It’s all well and good for families to stay together, but only if ALL of them stay quarantined. (And of course, they don’t all mind infecting each other.)

6283

If they didn’t put innocent people at risk, along with greatly expanding the pandemic, I’d say - let them kill themselves. Self-righteous F$^@&!

Eric Couture, attends services three times a week at a Baptist church in Nashua.

"Anyone can choose not to exercise their God-given unalienable rights,” Couture said. “We can choose not to assemble if that is our desire. What cannot occur is one man in a position of power deciding to strip us of our rights in the name of safety and without due process.”

Another plaintiff, former Republican State Representative David W. Binford, said the order would prevent him from attending meetings of the Grafton County Republican Committee.

6284

Since I last posted on air traffic, the FAA has basically done an about-face on their plans.

The NAS must remain 100% no matter the consequences. One guy was exposed and posted this:

My letter to quarantine from the Public Health Official in the NYC Dept of Health was denied today. Word is that the guidance came down from the region, or at least somewhere above my ATM. They are saying the letter is fake because it can be found online so we are making it up. I forwarded the email correspondence I had with the NYC DoH doctor to my ATM and NEA and am awaiting word on whether they will find something in that to shoot down as well.

FAA said they will approve excused leave for those who tested positive, because they figured none of us could get tested unless we were on our deathbed anyway. Then they said “Ok we’ll also approve excused leave if you get a letter from a public health official.” They didn’t think it could be done, then called bullshit when I called their bluff. NATCA says “just stay home and use your sick leave, we’ll try to get your leave back later.” Except if I hand them everything they need to get me my excused leave NOW and they can’t do it, why the hell would I trust them to get me the leave back LATER?

Asinine. Just, asinine. Keep going to work, everything is fine, we’ll cross the 25% of your facility dying bridge when we get there. No biggie. You’re a big strong healthy man, go do your duty from the NAS. Oh, you infected grandma and she died? Meh, not my problem, your grandma isnt a controller.

Guess I’ll keep taking the subway to work!

Lol.

6285

Not sure if this was posted already - Katie Porter’s sister breaks down why we need to flatten the curve. I honestly was shocked at the math she lays out, scary stuff.

6286

Dammit. My sister in law is experiencing that symptom, and probably caught whatever it is from my brother, who is now on the mend. They’re in San Francisco and in their early/mid 50s.

6287

There are now 450 cases & 20 deaths in Louisiana, with the majority in the New Orleans Metro. The most recent fatality was a 39-year-old woman who worked in an urgent care clinic. (Note: while her symptoms match COVID19, she declined a test because her clinic only had a limited number available. So it’s technically unconfirmed.)

6288

The 20 deaths imply that the actual case load… 3 weeks ago… was 10,000 (you can calculate the look-back rate by taking an average 0.5% death rate for non-stressed medical systems, and that the average time from infection to death is 3 weeks).

With an average doubling time of 6 days, the most likely amount of true cases in your area is about… 50,0000 now.

6289

Germany tightening restrictions now. Across the country, from now on gatherings of more than 2 persons are prohibited unless they’re a family or from the same household. In general, a minimum distance of 1.5m is to be maintained in public. Restaurants can only be opened for take-away orders. Barbershops, beauty shops and the like are to be closed. It’s not a full curfew though as people are still allowed to leave the house to walk or do inividual sports.

Some federal states are a bit stricter as there’s a curfew in effect in parts of Bavaria and the whole of Saxony. People are only allowed to leave their home under certain circumstances, i.e. going to the supermarket, pharmacy, work and the like.

6290

Thanks for the link. I saw it earlier but didn’t have time to read it then. It generally accords with the sense of the situation I get from other sources. Hit hard for a month or so, and follow up with massive testing and reactive measures to keep a lid on it.

How awesome would it be if the US federal government were on top of this, pushing a consistent approach and a model for others? And communicating the strategy so people aren’t just staring into an abyss.

6291

It’s a bullshit chart that doesn’t include China, convenient right, and completely ignores South Korea’s position at the top of it. I mean even the red scribble tells you how ridiculous it is. It sure is “nice” to reinforce the ridiculous idea that Asian countries only consists of the 4 countries people with no interest in the rest of the world can remember… again minus China of course. And yes, culturally South Korea does wear masks, not just during pandemics.

And what is one of these mysterious Asian countries that was conveniently left off she’s talking about, you wonder, oh I don’t know, how about Thailand for starters. There is a lot of East Asia; it’s a huge, huge number of countries.

6292

I feel like the reluctance to wear masks in public in the West is somehow a deeply rooted sociological issue and a reflection of the deep independent and anti-regulatory mindset of Westerners in general, that just happened to have a bit of mixed message science to support what they wanted to do anyway.

6293

I wonder how much of it is callousness towards the old? I’m 30, the thinking may go, and if I get it I will surive. If an old person dies they were close to death anyway. It’s just nature at work, culling the herd.

6294

I am ready for the mask. Can’t find any. I will go the bandanna route, probably. It’s better than nothing.