I really appreciate the math here, as its a far better take on things than the twitter post from a few days ago that just blindly did some multiplication.
Opinion column from three of Norway’s leading doctors, following today’s parliamentary question round with the Health Ministry.
They base their numbers on the stats from China (at the moment, the numbers in Italy seem to be trending worse, so this is optimistic):
- 15-20% of infected need hospitalization
- 5-26% of those require intensive care
- 2,3% mortality rate in China - 49% of the patients who require intensive care
- 63% of the health care workers in China became sick.
As they point out, even one of the richest countries in the world such as Norway, doesn’t have the capacity to deal with a pandemic of this type. They are highly critical of the government - both their past actions, as well as their current (lack of) leadership.
They advocate:
- Offensive testing and offensive voluntary quarantines
- Ban on all events above 500-1000 people
- Closing schools and universities
- Putting the hospital system on high alert and reducing all non-essential activity
- Additional measures to protect health care workers (currently, a lack of this has put close to 1000 health care workers into quarantine - and the pandemic hasn’t even hit yet - we have 2 people in hospital here. It’s insane.)
- Mobilization of a health care reserve; i.e., crash-courses for students, so that they can step in-
- Consider activating national emergency plans and mobilizing the Civil Protection agency (public security) organizations.
I doubt this will happen in time, though - currently, every pro-active measure here goes through local governments, while the national government appears mostly interested in limiting the economic damage.
Banzai
1875
An open mind is like a fortress with its gates unbarred and unguarded.
Hope is the first step on the road to disappointment.
Can learn a lot from games!
Lurb
1876
Exponential growth gets ya fast.
I’m married to a Physics major, son of PhD parents, I work with Computer Science graduates and college professors and I’m tired of explaining to everyone that not everything is linear in the world.
They insist in saying things like “at 100 cases per day it will be 2000 by Sunday”. No, at 100 new cases today it will be 10000 by Sunday and everybody by the end of the month.
People panic buying today laughed at me for saying I had bought a few extra unperishables just 4 days ago.
Thrag
1877
[quote=“wavey, post:1828, topic:145953, full:true”]
There are fancy ones that heat the water first. I’ve got one of these: https://smile.amazon.com/gp/product/B00A8FP9DK , Obviously a lot more expensive than the basic variety but entirely worth it.
Enidigm
1878
“Drive closer, I want to hit them with my sword!”
“Sir, they’re inflected with the bloody corona virus!”
“I am behind you, go forth with confidence!”
Matt_W
1879
I posted a video just up there that explains exactly this.
JD
1880
Some federal states in Germany already went out to prohibit events with more than 1000 attendees today, and I’m guessing the rest will follow suit soon-ish. That includes sports events, so there now will be soccer matches without audiences as in Italy.
DraiAC
1881
I can’t remember if it was here or somewhere else, but didn’t a summary of the (admittedly early and limited) WHO analysis of China show both extremely low rates of infection and serious cases for kids?
Not that I want anyone to get this or have serious complications, but if this kids and schools aren’t a major vector for the virus, that would be a relief as someone with little ones. Having had a child be in the prime vector group for a much less widespread virus outbreak a few years ago (enterovirus, EV-D68), who ended up getting it and being in the ICU for two weeks, was truly terrifying.
So, even as someone who is older, I am keeping my fingers crossed that the data continues to show that young people are less at risk at least for severe complications.
Yeah, this is an ‘ok boomer’ virus. Stupid twerps running around with their perfect immune systems.
A vector for the virus can be a carrier. Kids could be infected, be asymptotic at a much higher rate than older people, and spread the virus around.
Mr. Sulu laid it all out in “Where No Man Has Gone Before”!
“It’s like a penny. If you double it every day, by the end of the month you’re a millionaire.”
Wait a minute, Sulu. I thought they didn’t use money in the Federation!
We’re all nerds, surely we all heard of the chessboard + rice story when we were kids?
I notice it does not list the PSI of the water, does it have good pressure?
Electric bidets have good pressure. They got controls to adjust temperature + pressure. People who want to buy one, I would get Toto, and measure the seat. They are not one size fits all. They have templates on website if you want to make sure. BTW you are sharing fecal matter with your household, which is probably good for c dificil infections. Not so great for corona. But whatever. Also, someone has to clean it. That’s my job. It’s not pleasant.
Yes - kids are much less at risk. That seems to remain consistent everywhere.
They might still spread the disease - I don’t think I’ve seen any good data on that yet. There’s also the worry you should take into account that if you’re unlucky and get hit by the virus, there is an uncomfortably high possibility that you and your spouse could both end up hospitalized at the same time. So it might be good to have thought about what to do in that kind of scenario. I know - not the most cheerful thought - but better to have thought about it and never need to do it, than to suddenly be put into the situation where you have to scramble.
rei
1890
This is not reassuring:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-03-09/how-coronavirus-spread-from-patient-zero-in-seattle
I’d thought WA being a fairly progressive bastion (not the whole state, outside of urban areas it’s still pretty right-wing like in Spokane etc.) with tech dollars would limit the damage but I guess not.
In all honesty, Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders kind of need to mutually agree to stop doing large public rallies.
Actually, as someone who bought two last year, Toto doesn’t make the ‘round’ variety anymore - only the ‘extended’ version. We had to get an off-brand for the round toilet, and I just bought an extended toilet to replace the other one, as that’s the one I use and, well, it’s nice to have a little more space for, um, the boys - as it were.
But the ‘off brand’ one upstairs works fine.
