Deception: Murder on Quarter to Three Forum Game


#121

I always bleed internally cuz it’s less messy.


#122

You sir, are a gentleman.


#123

If necessary, I carry a hankie.


#124

As one does.


#125

Karate men bleed on the inside. It is known.


#126

It is known.


#127

While I am trained in baritsu, I am not the murderer. You will all have to look elsewhere for your assailant. I use my abilities for good. Not evil.


#128

And I am interested in two facts.

First, you were the first person that made a list. Why? Why jump out and call out everyone else? Were you being helpful? Or trying to sow discontent?

Secondly, blowing tobacco smoke into a drowning man’s anus was considered a cure. In the past sir. In the past!


#129

Why make a list?

The same principle as the great detective himself.
Eliminate the impossible, then what remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth.

So looking at the options and isolating the possible while eliminating others.

I consider it great folly to zero in on a single solution with only a limited set of facts. As that way leads blindness to alternatives. Until we know more, it is best to start by eliminating options, then continually narrow our scope as more evidence comes to light.

Note I am not trying to eliminate the cleaver from contention. Though I know it wrong, it is a legitimate option given the known facts. So I do not eliminate it. Instead I prefer to narrow our options to a more manageable level, and let the course of the investigation flow.


#130

…while whispering there is no cleaver.


#131

Have I once done a thing of the sort?


#132

One of the nice things is we have 9 good faith efforts between us to find the right combination so we don’t need to worry that much about consensus building for a narrow interpretation.


#133

A very good point! Unlike with Avalon where we need to agree as a group.


#134

I hadn’t considered blender as a bludgeoning weapon, but I can see that it could be used to inflict severe injury. There’s a surprisingly strong case for the blender, almost like I’m being framed here. I still think the cleaver is most likely, and there’s still a good case for the candlestick, but it’s hard to rule me out. (It’s not me.)

Also, a spork:

But don’t worry:


#135

Also:

Just to make you more sympathetic to the guy with the blender.


#136

I think cleaver is more likely than blender, but I’m not sure.

I have also found some people saying the candlestick/peanut combination is likely. If I was the murderer, I’d be laughing at the irony that I’m simultaneously Morgana, a Cylon, and the Murderer. What are the odds?

I like math, so here’s the odds:

0.90909091% * whatever the odds of being a Cylon while Baltar are. So not anywhere near impossible. But that would be kind of crazy.

For me, people seem to be quite sure it’s the candlestick/peanut combo if it is me, so if someone thinks it’s me you can turn over your badge and clear my name, but I don’t see why anyone would do that until we have the first six clues.


#137

Ok, I finally dug into this and have made a visual representation of the clues so far, taking into account what we know from the FI and what we have surmised in the forums. For each item, I’ve placed a color-coded dot on the item for pieces of information we’ve been given by the FI. So each item has 4 dots, where the leftmost dot represents the Cause of Death, the 2nd leftmost dot represents the Location of Crime, the third dot the Sudden Incident, and so on.

Color Key for the dots:
Bright Green = strong positive correlation
Grayish Green = moderate positive correlation
Bright Red = strong negative correlation
Grayish Red = moderate negative correlation
Gray = no correlation that I can tell
Yellow = ambivalent interpretation, not clear if this is a positive or a negative

How to use:
If an item has a lot of green dots and no bright red dots, I’d consider it a contender. If you disagree about any of the judgements let me know and I’ll update the image.


#138

And if it’s ok with ya’ll, just for visual clarity I’ll start removing the items that seem conclusively ruled out. Again, if there’s any objections let me know and I’ll update accordingly.


#139


#140

This is some fine work…but what kitchens do you frequent that have machetes in them?? The chart seems to make the machete as the most likely weapon, along with the cleaver. It seems pretty clear he’s trying to point at the murder weapon first, leaving the clue for later.