Oh man, 95%. That would be awesome.
Here’s what’s really going on in the game, though.
People start up a custom game, and someone joins and makes several of the ping times go yellow. You look at the connection status and see that there are two players who just can’t connect to each other, sometimes three, even though those players can connect to everyone else just fine.
Nobody will begin a game in this state. People are booting folks who have the yellow pings. The game may start, but it won’t go 2 minutes without that player timing out or dropping in some way, causing the 30-second connection window for everyone and bumping in some AI. Then everyone starts dropping out, because if they wanted to play with/against AI, they’d play single player.
As a result, even people who can get into a game, can’t really get into a game. Quite often you have a person who joins games and has the green ping, but then they join some other game and has a yellow ping and can’t connect to one or two other players, for no good reason. So you have players who “can connect just fine…except sometimes they can’t.”
Of course, since it’s P2P this one bad apple spoils it for everyone.
I suspect there are some players that just run into weird limitations on open sockets or ports or whatever. More than once I’ve seen players that connect just fine when there are 5 of us in a lobby, but when the 6th person comes they can’t connect to him and vice versa. Of course, this makes it look like it’s both the 6th person’s fault AND the fault of the person who has the real connection problem. Either way, this one or two person problem screws up everything for six people (in a 3v3).
I don’t think the connectivity is anywhere near 95%. Or let me put it another way - if 5% of the PLAYERS have bad connectivity, it messes up 5n percent of the GAMES, where n is the number of players in the game. One in 20 people may have a connection problem, but that one person messes up the connectivity for 5 other people in a 3v3. So it’s not 1 in 20 games getting screwed up, it’s any game in which one of the 4-10 players is in that 5%.