Election rumor thread

Zogby has Virginia tied. Holy shit. Unfortunately he has PA tied too.


NRO has the first round of leaked Ohio exit polls showing Bush up by 8. Possibly made up - it is NRO - but even if they’re not it’s not necessariliy bad - Democrats vote later in the day.

Edit: Now a NRO leak from “multiple sources, which I think is more reliable” saying Kerry up by 4 in Ohio. Woo!

Aaaand a exit leak from NRO showing Kerry ahead by 1 in FL. Drudge update: "Election 2004 has been rocked with first wave of exit polls which show Kerry competitive in key states, campaign and media sources tell DRUDGE… "

Stuff I’m looking at:


http://www.slate.com/ (Going to leak exit polls today)

Any others?

Whoa, big NEP leak. 2 PM numbers:


Kerry 45 48 42 60 52 51 51 50 58 52 49 57
Bush 55 51 57 40 48 48 47 48 40 43 49 41

Those numbers seem impossible. Kerry by 20 in PA? Edit: ah, these are the unweighted numbers.

National review is starting to post messages like “do not pay attention to those polls, don’t panic, just vote.” Good to see. :D

Fun to see the sites going under from the load…

Leaks like this should be prosecuted, IMO.

They influence the results of the election way too much.

Okay, tell me honestly, did you stay home from work today just to agonize over the election?

McCullough is dating someone in the Gates family! :lol:

Seems like open-and-shut first amendment to me.

I’m alternating hitting refresh and working.


bush down 4 in ohio, down 4 in fla, downm 1 in NM, down 1 in mich, down 2 iowa

I think I’m going to convert to Catholicism for a day just so I can pray.

Kaus is dropping his idiot act. Report of incredible Democratic GOTV in MN:


Fucking cynics.

I’m with ya, McCullough. Keep up the good work.

Just caught Britt Hume in an interview on FOX News. He looked like he was presiding over a funeral.

Really? That is a good sign…

Okay, tell me honestly, did you stay home from work today just to agonize over the election?

Can’t speak for Jason, but I took a day today, just like I’ve done every election day since 1992. Not so much to agonize, but rather because I’m a politics junkie, and today is like the Super Bowl, Kentucky Derby, and March Madness all rolled into one. Even if my guys don’t win, this is easily one of my favorite days of any year, especially when it’s a national election. I love this stuff.[/quote]

Their final exchange:

[i]Smith: Sounds like it’s gonna be a late night

Hume (glumly): Could be

Smith: Well, this is what we live for

Hume: I guess

NRO saying those exit polls where 60% women or something?

I’m off today for the election and tomorrow for the Civil War.

Drudge’s Senate numbers don’t look good for Democrats:

Thune® +4 Castor(D) +3 Burr® +6 Bunning® +6 Coburn® +6 Demint® +4 Salazar(D) +4

Corner backs away:

Okay. I’ve now got a third source. Here’s what I feel comfortable saying. Those numbers with Kerry leading by 20 in PA were definitely from the Kerry campaign. Whether the represented an early voting tally or just a totally non-serious collection of tallies from various dudes with clipboards is unclear. But they are entirely bogus for the purposes of understanding what’s going on today.

As for what is going on today. Florida seems to be looking ok but tight. Still too close to call in Ohio. Etc. When I have something more concrete, I’ll let ya know.

CNN turnout stuff:

Ohio - African American precincts are performing at 106% what we expected, based on historical numbers. Hispanic precincts are at 144% what we expected. Precincts that went for Gore are turning out 8% higher then those that went Bush in 2000. Democratic base precincts are performing 15% higher than GOP base precincts.

Florida - Dem base precincts are performing 14% better than Bush base precincts. In precincts that went for Gore, they are doing 6% better than those that went for Bush. African American precincts at 109%, Hispanic precincts at 106%.

Pennsylvania - African American precincts at 102% of expectations, Hispanics at 136% of expectations. The Gore precincts are doing 4 percent better than bush precincts.

Michigan- Democratic base precincts are 8% better than GOP base states. Gore precincts are 5% better than Bush.

And with a single thread, Jason hits 20000 posts.


Slate’s numbers, right from the NEP ticker, look more “sane”, but do not account for “early voting”:

Kerry 50
Bush 49

Kerry 50
Bush 49

Continue Article

Kerry 54
Bush 45

Kerry 51
Bush 46

Kerry 51
Bush 47

Kerry 58
Bush 40

Kerry 48
Bush 50

New Mexico
Kerry 50
Bush 48

North Carolina
Kerry 49
Bush 51

Kerry 46
Bush 53