I think Ezra Klein’s premise is partially bullshit, because the 2016 election was special. Both Republican and Democratic elites voted against Trump, but he was able to get low-information and low-participation voters to the polls in unexpected numbers, especially in key states. The demographic breakdowns Klein uses in the introduction are largely blind to this.
What made this election special is that Bannon and the Russians both realized that while social media can be weaponized against dictatorships, it’s nature is pro-authoritarian: social media diminishes the power of elites, and anti-authoritarianism has always been an elite project.
There’s a difference between taking a position and being partisan. The kind of partisanship that Klein is decrying in the book is party over principle, which is what Republicans practice. I’ve never gotten the sense that Klein is a Democrat for Democrats’ sake. He’s definitely been willing to criticize Democratic politicians and the platform of the DNC. My point is that he’s not a hypocrite and claims that he is edge up to both siderism.
It may well be true that significant numbers of Republican elites voted against Trump, but if it is true, I don’t recall seeing anything that demonstrates that. And against that supposition, ask yourself e.g. how many Republican members of the House or the Senate you believe voted for someone other than Trump. I believe that number is quite close to zero, just as I believe relatively few Republicans in private employment in the senior managerial class voted against Trump.
It’s true that data is thin. My suspicion is that the difference between Romney carrying 93% of Republicans and Trump carrying 88% reflects this, as well as anecdotal evidence from highly educated establishment Republicans I know. Perhaps an Inner Party/Outer Party dichotomy?
I watch a lot of YouTube (space, physics, history and whatever game I happen to be playing) on our TV (it uses android.) I’m constantly seeing right wing videos crop up as recommendations - there isn’t any way to tell YouTube on television to stop showing me a channel. But I make the effort to flag them on the PC but it doesn’t matter, they just get replaced with more. There’s an endless stream of them.
Very common sentiment, I even have to hear it almost daily from my SO. 😖
trump won with ~77,000 votes in three states. That’s it. It’s not like he’s done anything to expand his appeal, and his numbers remained mired in the low '40s. Do people think that’s some kind of illusion and there are secret trump supporters ready to squirm out of the woodwork? In case any one hasn’t noticed, MAGAs … aren’t shy.
I get the fear, but it’s bizarre that now he’s perceived as some sort of unstoppable juggernaut. Yes, he can win. But he’s far from inevitable.
Edit: The take away from this poll isn’t that a Democrat is going to win Texas (they won’t), but rather regardless who is against trump, his ceiling seems to be 46% in Texas.
Some large number of those voters don’t really follow politics, and if they are just choosing between the current economy, and whatever Bernie is selling… There is a non trivial chance that they will choose Trump.
No argument. Any other Republican, it would be … difficult to win an election this year. But people who dislike trump really dislike trump. Some points to ponder:
In 2016, in WI trump received roughly the same number of votes as Romney in 2012. HRC got ~240,000 fewer votes. What happened to those votes? (Some of that is due to voter suppression, i.e., voter ID, removing polling stations and the like, but that cannot account for all of that.)
In 2018, Tom Wolf (D) won PA by 800,000 votes. To go back to the original point of this thread, the electorate has grown increasingly polarized since 2010. What percentage of those people who voted for Wolf are also going to vote for trump? Certainly some, but even half? That would seem a stretch. By any normative measure, trump was not electable but yet somehow he still won. The ('R) and (D) now has risen in prominence in voters minds, even more so than ideology (probably.) Democrats aren’t as polarized as Republicans but that is changing.
Now head-to-head polls this far out probably don’t mean a lot, and national polls even more so, but:
The two candidates trump does best against, one is female, and the other gay (and/or name recognition for the latter.)
I’m not arguing Democrats can handily beat trump, I’m pushing back against the notion that trump can’t be beat. It’s going to take work and smart campaigning. There are a lot of smart people out there who want to see trump defeated. I just hope people don’t fall into some kind of defeatist, self-fulfilling prophecy rabbit hole. That’s all I’m saying.
I strongly suspect Trump’s numbers go up this time, compared to last. He’s spent four years consolidating control of the party - almost anyone that still considers themselves a Republican is functionally a Trumpist at this point (whether they like it or not). Doesn’t mean he can’t be beat, but it’s going to be harder, not easier.
Yes. They sat home or voted 3rd party because the media, facebook, and republicans told them that Hillary was a pedophile who killed Benghazi with her emails.
They’re going to do the same thing with whoever the Democratic candidate is this time too. Why would they vote differently?
I mean, that’s the whole point of the Ukraine thing. Now half the country thinks that Biden made Ukraine dig up dirt on Trump to help Hillary in 2016.
Based off what though? His numbers have been remarkably stable (low 40s) for his four years. He does have sky high approval with Republicans, but he also has sky high disapproval from Democrats and a good chunk of independents.
Yeah, but he was a harmless reality TV star who was also a good bussneeth man (say that like Bill the Cat.) The MAGAs are a lost cause, but not everyone is a MAGA droid. I’d also submit there’s a non-trivial number of people who are just sick of trump too.
Yup, and Republicans that stayed home last time may be inclined to turn out (even while holding their noses) for a guy that has reliably advanced their agenda (SC picks, tax legislations etc).
They don’t even have to turn out for that reason. They might just turn out because they’re scared as hell the Democrats will put someone in who will tank everything instead of improve some things. I mean Trump doesn’t have to even present as the positive in that scenario.
