If it comes to that, revolutions don’t happen by individuals randomly shooting at people. A shit ton of organization has to happen first.
I heard a co-worker saying they wanted to punch Nancy Pelosi right in the face this morning, so I’m not sure how much anything can help at this point. Some people are just really far gone in their hate.
How do respond to that?
I mean telling them that they are biggest asshole in the world?
I fear the relentless emphasis on Hunter Biden will have some effect in giving people a fig leaf to say ‘both sides are corrupt, so I’ll vote for Trump anyway.’ It sure worked with Hillary/email.
KevinC
3535
I think this often needs to be reiterated. We all know that nothing will change the mind of one of the cultists. But there’s not enough cultists to elect Trump on his own, so the margins matter. I know multiple people I would describe as reluctant Trump voters. Maybe they vote for him again, but this is the group of people that these impeachment hearings might have an effect on.
Trump won by slim margins in multiple states. You don’t have to convince the 35% that he’s not the God Emperor, you just have to convince a few thousand people in places like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to switch their vote or stay home in disgust.
One thing I wonder about a lot lately, and this is probably kind of off topic, but we keep hearing that such and such percentage of Republicans think Trump is just great. But there seem to be constant reports of people who no longer identify as Republican, they’re just disgusted with the whole thing.
So while the percentages may be constant, are the actual quantity of people who could be counted on as solidly Trump in decline? It seems like it would be, though I couldn’t claim to know how significant those numbers may be.
Scrax
3539
It’s brutal to get grilled like this for hours. I think everyone up there - Dems and Reps -agree that none of this is her fault, yet they have to fight over her in order to score points. She has to remain alert and ready to have perfect answers to every question (for hours) less she slip and say something controversial in some sort of gotcha attempt.
My general fear in this area is that (according to 538 podcast) the battleground states have a different distribution of voters than the popular vote. Shockingly, pollsters have may have over-estimated education levels of likely voters, which changes in-house weights, and may be skewing some polls. So, if turnout increases across the board, then that swings the rust belt into trumps pocket, while the sunbelt goes more democratic (but they are already over the line into democratic territory, so while it helps the popular vote it doesn’t change the electoral college.)
That kinda freaks me out, but we’re still super early, and I have some strong faith that democrats will be able to reach out to the rust belt and start swinging undecided votes.
If you’re interested:
The New York Times, in collaboration with Siena College, recently released a round of battleground state polling that shows a much closer 2020 general election contest in swing states than you might expect if you just looked at national polling.
Trump tweeting seems like the best thing to have happened today for democrats, and would be incredibly fitting if trumps own tweets are what (finally) swings this against him.
Perry Bacon, Jr at FiveThirtyEight did a great study earlier this fall about “How many persuadable voters are there really out there?”
As he noted, it’s a tough question, because voters tend to describe themselves as “persuadable” when they may not be.
But by his estimates and using a couple of different methods, the number is either 7% or 9% of the total likely to vote population. And that’s plenty of voters.
And as a final reminder: Clinton won the popular vote by 3 million votes.
If not for a tiny swing in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, she’d be president.
There are plenty of persuadable voters in both of those places – and plenty in Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, and heck, maybe even Texas – to make 2020 unpleasant for Mr. Trump.
I do know this: it’s way too damn early to write any of those places off.
Oh. And keep an eye on Iowa and Nebraska. Yes, Nebraska. Lots and lots of farmers and agri-business folks and families have been impacted by the dumb trade wars of the current administration.
KevinC
3544
Oh yeah, I totally get the anxiety! I’m extremely anxious too, especially with the states being so high. But oftentimes when shit goes very sideways for Trump, people will inevitably mention the cultist that is still all about the Trump wagon and therefore everything is meaningless. I don’t think it’s the case, that’s not the person who needs to be swayed.
Can we sway enough on the edges? If I knew the answer to that I reckon I’d be the highest paid political consultant in any campaign. I don’t believe it’s a foregone conclusion that nothing can damage him or cause him to lose the election, though. Not much needs to shift for that to happen. To argue otherwise is just defeatism, IMO.
I think there are 2 levels of cultists.
There are voters that will never vote for anyone but trump. Those people are probably a lost cause, but can be drown out by undecided voters if we’re smart, compassionate, and figure out how to communicate with them in the right language.
The 2nd level are house/senate republicans. I think those are almost all a lost cause, but I would rejoice to be wrong…again, trumps tweets are helping us out, at least a little bit.
This is a great point, and something I hadn’t thought of.
If you’re Gordon Sondland, and you’ve just seen Roger Stone guilty on 7 of 7 counts that include lying in your sworn testimony to congress, well…
